|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Rockies were projected for 79.7 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 3/30 they had an 87% chance before dropping to 69.1% on 4/14. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 75.6. They have a 1.3% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 3.2% chance and a projected #12 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Rockies' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 11-14 the Rockies are behind their money line projected win total of 12.4 wins. They have 7 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 4 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 46% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 42% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 50%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-10, 47%) is under their expected 49% win percentage. In simulations, the Rockies are a below average team and won 47.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#20 in the league). Their peak rank was #12 in the league back on 3/30.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.56 which ranks #14 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #14 in home games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +1.31 (#4 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Rockies next 10 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 17.2%. At #12 in the league, they are behind the Nationals by one point. With a -1.82 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Giants in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Giants. There is only a 0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
The Colorado Rockies' next game is on April 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|44||Anderson, Tyler||SP||6-3||215||12/30/1989||4||No College|
|28||Arenado, Nolan||3B||6-2||220||04/16/1991||7||No College|
|35||Bettis, Chad||SP||6-0||209||04/26/1989||7||No College|
|19||Blackmon, Charlie||RF||6-3||215||07/01/1986||9||No College|
|25||Butera, Drew||C||6-1||200||08/09/1983||10||No College|
|26||Dahl, David||LF||6-2||190||04/01/1994||3||No College|
|71||Davis, Wade||RP||6-5||225||09/07/1985||11||No College|
|20||Desmond, Ian||CF||6-3||215||09/20/1985||11||No College|
|38||Dunn, Mike||RP||6-0||208||05/23/1985||11||No College|
|54||Estevez, Carlos||RP||6-6||264||12/28/1992||3||No College|
|55||Gray, Jon||SP||6-4||235||11/05/1991||5||No College|
|1||Hampson, Garrett||2B||5-11||185||No College|
|63||Johnson, D.J.||RP||6-4||235||08/30/1989||2||No College|
|48||Marquez, German||SP||6-1||220||02/22/1995||4||No College|
|24||McMahon, Ryan||1B||6-2||216||12/14/1994||3||No College|
|9||Murphy, Daniel||1B||6-1||221||04/01/1985||11||No College|
|59||Musgrave, Harrison||RP||6-1||220||03/02/1992||2||No College|
|45||Oberg, Scott||RP||6-2||205||03/13/1990||5||No College|
|18||Oh, Seung-Hwan||RP||5-10||205||07/15/1982||4||No College|
|12||Reynolds, Mark||1B||6-2||230||08/03/1983||13||No College|
|49||Senzatela, Antonio||SP||6-1||230||01/21/1995||3||No College|
|29||Shaw, Bryan||RP||6-1||225||11/08/1987||9||No College|
|27||Story, Trevor||SS||6-2||212||11/15/1992||4||No College|
|15||Tapia, Raimel||LF||6-3||180||02/04/1994||4||No College|
|14||Wolters, Tony||C||5-10||194||06/09/1992||4||No College|