NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Tigers next 9 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 9 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
LIKELY LOSS
33% @NYM
489 miles
MAY 26
LIKELY LOSS
19% @NYM
-- miles
MAY 27
CLOSE GAME
53% @BAL
179 miles
MAY 28
CLOSE GAME
42% @BAL
-- miles
MAY 29
LIKELY LOSS
37% @BAL
-- miles
MAY 31
LIKELY LOSS
22% @ATL
600 miles
JUN 1
LIKELY LOSS
16% @ATL
-- miles
JUN 2
LIKELY LOSS
29% @ATL
-- miles
JUN 4
LIKELY LOSS
21% TB
--
JUN 5
LIKELY LOSS
23% TB
--

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 3-6 (29% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 9.9%. At #13 in the league, they are fighting with the Blue Jays for positioning. With a -0.53 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Royals by 2 points. With a -1.64 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Tigers are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Tigers are playing 13 games, traveling 7449 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Detroit Tigers' next game is on May 25. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 19-30 the Tigers are behind their money line projected win total of 20.6 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 14 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 9-18- home record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 6-15, 29%. In simulations where the Tigers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 30.4% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #27 in the league back on 4/24.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.98 which ranks #14 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. They are the #14 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is -3.5 which ranks them #15 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Tigers were projected for 63.3 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 5/9 they had a 66.7% chance before dropping to 50.2% on 5/24. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 51.1.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #5 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #11 Easiest

Tigers' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.