Houston
Astros
Stadium Minute Maid Park
61-37 Overall | AL WEST 1st
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Astros.2705101553.91
Schedule
Regular season
Sat  7/20
vs
Rangers
7:10pm
Sun  7/21
vs
Rangers
2:10pm
Mon  7/22
vs
Athletics
8:10pm
Tue  7/23
vs
Athletics
8:10pm
Wed  7/24
vs
Athletics
2:10pm
Fri  7/26
@
Cardinals
8:15pm
Sat  7/27
@
Cardinals
FS17:15pm
Sun  7/28
@
Cardinals
2:15pm
Tue  7/30
@
Indians
7:10pm
Wed  7/31
@
Indians
7:10pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Astros next 9 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUL 19
LIKELY WIN
62% TEX
--
JUL 20
CLOSE GAME
47% TEX
--
JUL 21
CLOSE GAME
44% TEX
--
JUL 22
CLOSE GAME
58% OAK
--
JUL 23
CLOSE GAME
52% OAK
--
JUL 24
CLOSE GAME
60% OAK
--
JUL 26
CLOSE GAME
50% @STL
680 miles
JUL 27
LIKELY LOSS
36% @STL
-- miles
JUL 28
LIKELY WIN
62% @STL
-- miles
JUL 30
CLOSE GAME
53% @CLE
1115 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 11.1%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Yankees by 2.5 points. With a -0.5 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Twins by half a point. With a -0.81 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Astros are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Astros are playing 13 games, traveling 8540 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Houston Astros' next game. They are -228 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

At 61-37 the Astros are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 59.6 wins. They have 30 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 24 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 55% of their road games and were expected to win 58%. At home they have a 70% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 64%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (11-6, 65%) is better than their expected 63% win percentage. The Astros perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 60.3% of the time (#3 in the league). Their peak rank was #1 in the league back on 5/22.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.01 which ranks #3 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is +1.09 (#6 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Astros are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.9% chance of winning it all. On 4/8 they had an 11.5% chance before increasing to 23% on 5/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 12.5%. They have an 82.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 30.8% chance of winning the AL (9/4) and an 18.2% chance of winning it all (9/2). In simulations they make the World Series 27.5% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Astros' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
27 Altuve, Jose 2B5-616405/06/19909No College
44 Alvarez, Yordan DH6-524206/27/19971No College
61 Armenteros, Rogelio RP6-122906/30/19941No College
23 Brantley, Michael LF6-221005/15/198711No College
2 Bregman, Alex 3B6-019203/30/19944LSU
28 Chirinos, Robinson C6-121006/05/19848No College
45 Cole, Gerrit SP6-422509/08/19907UCLA
47 Devenski, Chris RP6-320911/13/19904No College
10 Gurriel, Yuli 1B6-020206/09/19844No College
36 Harris, Will RP6-424908/28/19848LSU
39 James, Josh RP6-322203/08/19932No College
18 Kemp, Tony 2B5-616310/31/19914Vanderbilt
6 Marisnick, Jake CF6-422803/30/19917No College
31 McHugh, Collin RP6-219206/19/19878No College
20 Miley, Wade SP6-219511/13/19869No College
54 Osuna, Roberto RP6-223002/07/19955No College
55 Pressly, Ryan RP6-221012/15/19887No College
22 Reddick, Josh RF6-219502/19/198711No College
30 Rondon, Hector RP6-323002/26/19887No College
--- Smith, Joe 6-220503/22/198413No College
4 Springer, George CF6-322109/19/19896Connecticut
12 Stassi, Max C5-1020003/15/19917No College
26 Straw, Myles SS5-1017910/17/19942No College
35 Verlander, Justin SP6-522502/20/198315No College
13 White, Tyler 1B5-1122110/29/19904No College