|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Astros next 9 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 11.1%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Yankees by 2.5 points. With a -0.5 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Twins by half a point. With a -0.81 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Astros are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Astros are playing 13 games, traveling 8540 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Houston Astros' next game. They are -228 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 61-37 the Astros are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 59.6 wins. They have 30 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 24 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 55% of their road games and were expected to win 58%. At home they have a 70% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 64%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (11-6, 65%) is better than their expected 63% win percentage. The Astros perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 60.3% of the time (#3 in the league). Their peak rank was #1 in the league back on 5/22.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.01 which ranks #3 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is +1.09 (#6 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Astros are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.9% chance of winning it all. On 4/8 they had an 11.5% chance before increasing to 23% on 5/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 12.5%. They have an 82.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 30.8% chance of winning the AL (9/4) and an 18.2% chance of winning it all (9/2). In simulations they make the World Series 27.5% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Astros' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|27||Altuve, Jose||2B||5-6||164||05/06/1990||9||No College|
|44||Alvarez, Yordan||DH||6-5||242||06/27/1997||1||No College|
|61||Armenteros, Rogelio||RP||6-1||229||06/30/1994||1||No College|
|23||Brantley, Michael||LF||6-2||210||05/15/1987||11||No College|
|28||Chirinos, Robinson||C||6-1||210||06/05/1984||8||No College|
|47||Devenski, Chris||RP||6-3||209||11/13/1990||4||No College|
|10||Gurriel, Yuli||1B||6-0||202||06/09/1984||4||No College|
|39||James, Josh||RP||6-3||222||03/08/1993||2||No College|
|6||Marisnick, Jake||CF||6-4||228||03/30/1991||7||No College|
|31||McHugh, Collin||RP||6-2||192||06/19/1987||8||No College|
|20||Miley, Wade||SP||6-2||195||11/13/1986||9||No College|
|54||Osuna, Roberto||RP||6-2||230||02/07/1995||5||No College|
|55||Pressly, Ryan||RP||6-2||210||12/15/1988||7||No College|
|22||Reddick, Josh||RF||6-2||195||02/19/1987||11||No College|
|30||Rondon, Hector||RP||6-3||230||02/26/1988||7||No College|
|---||Smith, Joe||6-2||205||03/22/1984||13||No College|
|12||Stassi, Max||C||5-10||200||03/15/1991||7||No College|
|26||Straw, Myles||SS||5-10||179||10/17/1994||2||No College|
|35||Verlander, Justin||SP||6-5||225||02/20/1983||15||No College|
|13||White, Tyler||1B||5-11||221||10/29/1990||4||No College|