|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 34-18 the Astros are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 31.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 16 good wins but they also have 16 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 19-6- home record is +13% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 16-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 12.8 wins. The Astros perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 65.5% of the time (#1 in the league). Their peak sim% was 66.5% back on 5/22.
Their average run differential is +1.75 which ranks #2 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +3.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Astros next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 28.6%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Twins by one point. With a +0.96 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Yankees by half a point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Yankees. Their projected wins (5.62) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Astros are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Astros are playing 14 games, traveling 23042 miles crossing 26 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Houston Astros' next game. They are -124 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Astros are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.9% chance of winning it all. On 4/8 they had an 11.5% chance before increasing to 23% on 5/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 21.8%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 99.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 36.4% chance of winning the AL (7/4) and a 20% chance of winning it all (4/1). In simulations they make the World Series 38.2% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Astros' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|23||Brantley, Michael||LF||6-2||210||05/15/1987||11||No College|
|28||Chirinos, Robinson||C||6-1||210||06/05/1984||8||No College|
|1||Correa, Carlos||SS||6-4||218||09/22/1994||5||No College|
|47||Devenski, Chris||RP||6-3||209||11/13/1990||4||No College|
|16||Diaz, Aledmys||2B||6-1||195||08/01/1990||4||No College|
|10||Gurriel, Yuli||1B||6-0||202||06/09/1984||4||No College|
|39||James, Josh||RP||6-3||222||03/08/1993||2||No College|
|6||Marisnick, Jake||CF||6-4||228||03/30/1991||7||No College|
|29||Martin, Corbin||SP||6-2||214||12/28/1995||1||Texas A&M|
|20||Miley, Wade||SP||6-2||195||11/13/1986||9||No College|
|54||Osuna, Roberto||RP||6-2||230||02/07/1995||5||No College|
|41||Peacock, Brad||SP||6-1||208||02/02/1988||8||No College|
|55||Pressly, Ryan||RP||6-2||210||12/15/1988||7||No College|
|22||Reddick, Josh||RF||6-2||195||02/19/1987||11||No College|
|52||Rodgers, Brady||SP||6-2||210||09/17/1990||2||Arizona State|
|30||Rondon, Hector||RP||6-3||230||02/26/1988||7||No College|
|12||Stassi, Max||C||5-10||200||03/15/1991||7||No College|
|59||Valdez, Framber||RP||5-11||222||11/19/1993||2||No College|
|35||Verlander, Justin||SP||6-5||225||02/20/1983||15||No College|
|13||White, Tyler||DH||5-11||221||10/29/1990||4||No College|