SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 17-32 Royals 'should have' 21 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 14 good wins vs 13 bad losses. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 7-17 road record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-12, 40%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In simulations where the Royals played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40.3% of the time (#26 in the league). Their peak rank was #23 in the league back on 4/20.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.76 which ranks #11 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #14. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #13 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 10 games is -2.9 which ranks them #13 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Royals next 10 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
40% NYY
--
MAY 25
LIKELY LOSS
39% NYY
--
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
43% NYY
--
MAY 27
LIKELY WIN
64% @CHW
408 miles
MAY 28
CLOSE GAME
45% @CHW
-- miles
MAY 29
CLOSE GAME
44% @CHW
-- miles
MAY 30
LIKELY LOSS
34% @TEX
814 miles
MAY 31
LIKELY LOSS
35% @TEX
-- miles
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
44% @TEX
-- miles
JUN 2
CLOSE GAME
49% @TEX
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 21.6%. At #14 in the league, they are behind the Tigers by 2 points. They have a +1.64 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Orioles by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Orioles. There is only a 0.17 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Royals are the 10th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Royals are playing 15 games, traveling 6120 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Kansas City Royals' next game. They are +119 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Royals were projected for 76 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 3/31 they had a 78.1% chance before dropping to 67.3% on 5/23. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 68.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #13 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #11 Toughest

Royals' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.