LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

Before the season, the Angels were projected for 82.4 points (average per simulation) but it does not look like they are going to reach that. On 3/24 they had an 84% chance before dropping to 71.2% on 5/24. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 70.8. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AL at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #1 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #15 Easiest

Angels' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 22-28 Angels 'should have' 26 wins. They have 17 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 14 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 9-14 road record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 21.1% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight. In simulations where the Angels played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 45.9% of the time (#23 in the league). Their peak rank was #12 in the league back on 3/24.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is -0.34 which ranks #9 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #10. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #9 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -1.25 which ranks them #11 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 10 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 3 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
52% TEX
--
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
56% TEX
--
MAY 27
CLOSE GAME
42% @OAK
365 miles
MAY 28
LIKELY LOSS
38% @OAK
-- miles
MAY 29
CLOSE GAME
47% @OAK
-- miles
MAY 30
CLOSE GAME
54% @SEA
681 miles
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
57% @SEA
-- miles
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
44% @SEA
-- miles
JUN 2
LIKELY LOSS
33% @SEA
-- miles
JUN 3
LIKELY LOSS
27% @CHC
1732 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 25.9%. At #10 in the league, they are behind the White Sox by one point. With a +0.69 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Mariners by half a point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Mariners. There is only a -0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Angels are just the 29th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Angels are playing 15 games, traveling 13512 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Los Angeles Angels' next game. They are -125 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.