|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Brewers are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 4.2% chance of winning it all. On 3/19 they had a 3.6% chance before increasing to 8.5% on 4/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 4.9%. Before the start of their 4 game losing streak they were at 6.5%. They have a 21.1% chance of winning their division. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#10 in the conference) and only have a 51% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the NL (7/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the World Series 9.5% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Brewers' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 13-13 the Brewers have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 12.9 wins. They have 9 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 42% of their road games and were expected to win 48%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 51%. Losers of 4 in a row they have a 27% chance of seeing that extend to 6 straight. The Brewers are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.5% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #6 winning 56.9%.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.54 which ranks #13 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #10. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #8 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #14 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.62 which ranks them #11 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Brewers next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 15.2%. At #10 in the league, they are behind the Braves by half a point. With a -0.41 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Nationals by half a point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Nationals. There is only a 0.12 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Milwaukee Brewers' next game. They are +145 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|24||Aguilar, Jesus||1B||6-3||285||06/30/1990||6||No College|
|43||Albers, Matt||RP||6-1||260||01/20/1983||14||No College|
|57||Anderson, Chase||RP||6-0||201||11/30/1987||6||No College|
|3||Arcia, Orlando||SS||6-0||181||08/04/1994||4||No College|
|50||Barnes, Jacob||RP||6-2||231||04/14/1990||4||No College|
|8||Braun, Ryan||LF||6-2||207||11/17/1983||13||No College|
|6||Cain, Lorenzo||CF||6-2||205||04/13/1986||10||No College|
|45||Chacin, Jhoulys||SP||6-3||255||01/07/1988||11||No College|
|58||Claudio, Alex||RP||6-3||160||01/31/1992||6||No College|
|27||Davies, Zach||SP||6-0||165||02/07/1993||5||No College|
|16||Gamel, Ben||LF||5-11||187||05/17/1992||4||No College|
|10||Grandal, Yasmani||C||6-1||220||11/08/1988||8||No College|
|71||Hader, Josh||RP||6-3||177||04/07/1994||3||No College|
|32||Jeffress, Jeremy||RP||6-0||205||09/21/1987||10||No College|
|11||Moustakas, Mike||2B||6-0||211||09/11/1988||9||No College|
|14||Perez, Hernan||2B||6-1||214||03/26/1991||8||No College|
|36||Petricka, Jake||RP||6-5||220||06/05/1988||7||No College|
|9||Pina, Manny||C||5-11||216||06/05/1987||6||No College|
|13||Saladino, Tyler||3B||6-0||200||07/20/1989||4||No College|
|21||Shaw, Travis||3B||6-3||225||04/16/1990||5||No College|
|7||Thames, Eric||1B||5-11||216||11/10/1986||5||No College|
|56||Wilkerson, Aaron||RP||6-2||230||05/24/1989||3||No College|
|12||Wilson, Alex||RP||6-0||215||11/03/1986||7||No College|
|53||Woodruff, Brandon||SP||6-4||232||02/10/1993||3||No College|
|22||Yelich, Christian||RF||6-3||200||12/05/1991||7||No College|