LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Twins are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/20 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 6.5% on 5/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 6.4%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 3.4%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 95.4%. They are projected to finish #1 in the conference and have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the AL (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the World Series 16.4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #2 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #11 Easiest

Twins' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 34-16 the Twins are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 26 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 22 impressive wins where they were given

Their average run differential is +1.94 which ranks #1 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #2 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is +3.36.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Twins next 9 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
LIKELY WIN
71% CHW
--
MAY 26
LIKELY WIN
76% CHW
--
MAY 27
CLOSE GAME
42% MIL
--
MAY 28
CLOSE GAME
57% MIL
--
MAY 30
CLOSE GAME
47% @TB
1327 miles
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
44% @TB
-- miles
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
49% @TB
-- miles
JUN 2
LIKELY LOSS
32% @TB
-- miles
JUN 4
CLOSE GAME
50% @CLE
631 miles
JUN 5
CLOSE GAME
57% @CLE
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 10.1%. At #1 in the league, they are ahead of the Astros by one point. With a -0.96 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Twins are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Twins are playing 13 games, traveling 14857 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #7 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Minnesota Twins' next game is on May 25. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.