|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Twins are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/20 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 9.3% on 6/4. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 3.9%. They have a 61.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 86% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the AL (7/2) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the World Series 10.9% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Twins' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
At 59-36 the Twins are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 51 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 36 impressive wins where they were given
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.19 which ranks #2 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #2 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is +0.67 (#9 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Twins next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 26.8%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Astros by half a point. With a +0.81 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Indians by 4 points. With a -0.83 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Twins are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Twins are playing 14 games, traveling 8920 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Minnesota Twins' next game. They are -134 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|13||Adrianza, Ehire||3B||6-1||170||08/21/1989||7||No College|
|2||Arraez, Luis||2B||5-10||155||04/09/1997||1||No College|
|17||Berrios, Jose||SP||6-1||185||05/27/1994||4||No College|
|60||Cave, Jake||RF||6-0||200||12/04/1992||2||No College|
|23||Cruz, Nelson||DH||6-2||230||07/01/1980||15||No College|
|18||Garver, Mitch||C||6-1||220||01/15/1991||3||New Mexico|
|9||Gonzalez, Marwin||3B||6-1||208||03/14/1989||8||No College|
|19||Harper, Ryne||RP||6-3||215||03/27/1989||1||No College|
|26||Kepler, Max||RF||6-4||205||02/10/1993||5||No College|
|52||Littell, Zack||RP||6-3||190||No College|
|65||May, Trevor||RP||6-5||240||09/23/1989||5||No College|
|12||Odorizzi, Jake||SP||6-2||190||03/27/1990||8||No College|
|33||Perez, Martin||SP||6-0||200||04/04/1991||8||No College|
|35||Pineda, Michael||SP||6-7||260||01/18/1989||6||No College|
|11||Polanco, Jorge||SS||5-11||200||07/05/1993||6||No College|
|20||Rosario, Eddie||LF||6-1||180||09/28/1991||5||No College|
|22||Sano, Miguel||3B||6-4||260||05/11/1993||5||No College|
|16||Schoop, Jonathan||2B||6-1||225||10/16/1991||7||No College|
|53||Stewart, Kohl||RP||6-3||195||10/07/1994||2||No College|