LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Twins are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/20 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 9.3% on 6/4. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 3.9%. They have a 61.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 86% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the AL (7/2) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the World Series 10.9% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #3 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #5 Easiest

Twins' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 59-36 the Twins are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 51 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 36 impressive wins where they were given

Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.19 which ranks #2 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #2 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is +0.67 (#9 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Twins next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUL 19
CLOSE GAME
50% OAK
--
JUL 20
CLOSE GAME
49% OAK
--
JUL 21
CLOSE GAME
43% OAK
--
JUL 22
LIKELY LOSS
40% NYY
--
JUL 23
CLOSE GAME
46% NYY
--
JUL 24
CLOSE GAME
55% NYY
--
JUL 25
LIKELY WIN
61% @CHW
358 miles
JUL 26
LIKELY WIN
75% @CHW
-- miles
JUL 27
LIKELY WIN
66% @CHW
-- miles
JUL 28
LIKELY WIN
63% @CHW
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 26.8%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Astros by half a point. With a +0.81 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Indians by 4 points. With a -0.83 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Twins are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Twins are playing 14 games, traveling 8920 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Minnesota Twins' next game. They are -134 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.