REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK
Their 78 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 35.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (45.2%). They won 49 at home and were expected to win 42.9. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 81.3 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.3 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Angels who are projected for 82.5 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 1.5% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 30/1, 3.2% and odds to win the AL at 15/1, 6.2%.
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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Since last season their average run differential is -0.23 which ranks #9 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #10 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG
Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Twins in all of their games would have earned a +1149 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have delivered a +595 profit risking 100 units on each game (85-77 PL). The Twins have lost against the run line on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.