New York
Mets
Stadium Citi Field
44-52 Overall | NL EAST 4th
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Mets.2544531354.75
Schedule
Regular season
Sat  7/20
@
Giants
FS14:05pm
Sun  7/21
@
Giants
4:05pm
Tue  7/23
vs
Padres
7:10pm
Wed  7/24
vs
Padres
7:10pm
Thu  7/25
vs
Padres
12:10pm
Fri  7/26
vs
Pirates
7:10pm
Sat  7/27
vs
Pirates
7:10pm
Sun  7/28
vs
Pirates
1:10pm
Tue  7/30
@
White Sox
8:10pm
Wed  7/31
@
White Sox
8:10pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Mets were projected for 81.2 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/16 they had an 86.7% chance before dropping to 74.2% on 7/13. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 76.9. The playoffs are not likely with their 2.2% chance and a projected #13 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #7 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #5 Toughest

Mets' Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 44-52 Mets 'should have' 49 wins. They have 30 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 23 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 39% of their road games and were expected to win 48%. At home they have a 55% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 55%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-8, 47%) is under their expected 49% win percentage. In simulations, the Mets are a below average team and won 47.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#20 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 4/8.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.35 which ranks #11 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #9 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #15 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is +0.33 (#7 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Mets next 9 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUL 19
CLOSE GAME
49% @SF
2575 miles
JUL 20
LIKELY LOSS
38% @SF
-- miles
JUL 21
CLOSE GAME
53% @SF
-- miles
JUL 23
LIKELY WIN
64% SD
--
JUL 24
CLOSE GAME
49% SD
--
JUL 25
CLOSE GAME
55% SD
--
JUL 26
LIKELY WIN
62% PIT
--
JUL 27
CLOSE GAME
55% PIT
--
JUL 28
CLOSE GAME
60% PIT
--
JUL 30
CLOSE GAME
56% @CHW
720 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 13.6%. At #13 in the league, they are behind the Pirates by 1.5 points. There is only a -0.11 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are in a battle with Reds in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Reds. Their projected wins (4.85) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Mets are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mets are playing 13 games, traveling 16079 miles crossing 19 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the New York Mets are -189 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
20 Alonso, Pete 1B6-323012/07/19941Florida
43 Avilan, Luis RP6-222007/19/19898No College
24 Cano, Robinson 2B6-021210/22/198215No College
30 Conforto, Michael RF6-121503/01/19935Oregon State
28 Davis, J.D. 3B6-321804/27/19933No College
39 Diaz, Edwin RP6-316503/22/19944No College
27 Familia, Jeurys RP6-324010/10/19898No College
21 Frazier, Todd 3B6-322002/12/19869Rutgers
65 Gsellman, Robert RP6-420507/18/19934No College
13 Guillorme, Luis 2B5-1019509/27/19942No College
11 Hechavarria, Adeiny 2B6-019504/15/19898No College
12 Lagares, Juan CF6-121503/17/19897No College
67 Lugo, Seth RP6-422511/17/19894No College
32 Matz, Steven SP6-220005/29/19915No College
79 Mazza, Chris P6-417210/17/19891No College
6 McNeil, Jeff LF6-119504/08/19922No College
3 Nido, Tomas C6-021104/12/19943No College
40 Ramos, Wilson C6-124508/10/198710No College
35 Rhame, Jacob RP6-121503/16/19933No College
1 Rosario, Amed SS6-219011/20/19953No College
22 Smith, Dominic 1B6-022606/15/19953No College
34 Syndergaard, Noah SP6-624008/29/19925No College
44 Vargas, Jason SP6-021502/02/198314No College
38 Wilson, Justin RP6-220508/18/19878Fresno State
48 deGrom, Jacob SP6-418006/19/19886No College