|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Mets were projected for 81.2 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/16 they had an 86.7% chance before dropping to 74.2% on 7/13. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 76.9. The playoffs are not likely with their 2.2% chance and a projected #13 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Mets' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 44-52 Mets 'should have' 49 wins. They have 30 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 23 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 39% of their road games and were expected to win 48%. At home they have a 55% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 55%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-8, 47%) is under their expected 49% win percentage. In simulations, the Mets are a below average team and won 47.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#20 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 4/8.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.35 which ranks #11 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #9 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #15 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is +0.33 (#7 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Mets next 9 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 13.6%. At #13 in the league, they are behind the Pirates by 1.5 points. There is only a -0.11 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are in a battle with Reds in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Reds. Their projected wins (4.85) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Mets are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mets are playing 13 games, traveling 16079 miles crossing 19 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the New York Mets are -189 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|43||Avilan, Luis||RP||6-2||220||07/19/1989||8||No College|
|24||Cano, Robinson||2B||6-0||212||10/22/1982||15||No College|
|30||Conforto, Michael||RF||6-1||215||03/01/1993||5||Oregon State|
|28||Davis, J.D.||3B||6-3||218||04/27/1993||3||No College|
|39||Diaz, Edwin||RP||6-3||165||03/22/1994||4||No College|
|27||Familia, Jeurys||RP||6-3||240||10/10/1989||8||No College|
|65||Gsellman, Robert||RP||6-4||205||07/18/1993||4||No College|
|13||Guillorme, Luis||2B||5-10||195||09/27/1994||2||No College|
|11||Hechavarria, Adeiny||2B||6-0||195||04/15/1989||8||No College|
|12||Lagares, Juan||CF||6-1||215||03/17/1989||7||No College|
|67||Lugo, Seth||RP||6-4||225||11/17/1989||4||No College|
|32||Matz, Steven||SP||6-2||200||05/29/1991||5||No College|
|79||Mazza, Chris||P||6-4||172||10/17/1989||1||No College|
|6||McNeil, Jeff||LF||6-1||195||04/08/1992||2||No College|
|3||Nido, Tomas||C||6-0||211||04/12/1994||3||No College|
|40||Ramos, Wilson||C||6-1||245||08/10/1987||10||No College|
|35||Rhame, Jacob||RP||6-1||215||03/16/1993||3||No College|
|1||Rosario, Amed||SS||6-2||190||11/20/1995||3||No College|
|22||Smith, Dominic||1B||6-0||226||06/15/1995||3||No College|
|34||Syndergaard, Noah||SP||6-6||240||08/29/1992||5||No College|
|44||Vargas, Jason||SP||6-0||215||02/02/1983||14||No College|
|38||Wilson, Justin||RP||6-2||205||08/18/1987||8||Fresno State|
|48||deGrom, Jacob||SP||6-4||180||06/19/1988||6||No College|