|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Mets are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 22.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/3 they had a 44.2% chance before dropping to 5.6% on 5/20. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 8.4%. They have a 3.6% chance of winning their division. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Mets' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 24-26 Mets 'should have' 26 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 12 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 11-17 road record is -12% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-11, 42%) is under their expected 54% win percentage. In simulations, the Mets are a below average team and won 49.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#19 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 4/8.
Their average run differential is -0.28 which ranks #10 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #14 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +0.33 (#6 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Mets next 10 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 9.2%. At #10 in the league, they are behind the Cardinals by one point. With a +0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Rockies by half a point. With a -1.17 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Mets are just the 24th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mets are playing 14 games, traveling 32548 miles crossing 42 time zones. They rank #3 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The New York Mets' next game is on May 25. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|23||Altherr, Aaron||RF||6-5||223||01/14/1991||6||No College|
|49||Bashlor, Tyler||RP||6-0||195||04/16/1993||2||No College|
|28||Davis, J.D.||3B||6-3||218||04/27/1993||3||No College|
|39||Diaz, Edwin||RP||6-3||165||03/22/1994||4||No College|
|27||Familia, Jeurys||RP||6-3||240||10/10/1989||8||No College|
|68||Font, Wilmer||SP||6-4||265||05/24/1990||5||No College|
|47||Gagnon, Drew||RP||6-4||215||06/26/1990||2||No College|
|91||Gomez, Carlos||RF||6-3||220||12/04/1985||13||No College|
|65||Gsellman, Robert||RP||6-4||205||07/18/1993||4||No College|
|11||Hechavarria, Adeiny||2B||6-0||195||04/15/1989||8||No College|
|12||Lagares, Juan||CF||6-1||215||03/17/1989||7||No College|
|32||Matz, Steven||SP||6-2||200||05/29/1991||5||No College|
|3||Nido, Tomas||C||6-0||211||04/12/1994||3||No College|
|40||Ramos, Wilson||C||6-1||245||08/10/1987||10||No College|
|1||Rosario, Amed||SS||6-2||190||11/20/1995||3||No College|
|33||Santiago, Hector||RP||6-0||215||12/16/1987||9||No College|
|22||Smith, Dominic||1B||6-0||226||06/15/1995||3||No College|
|34||Syndergaard, Noah||SP||6-6||240||08/29/1992||5||No College|
|44||Vargas, Jason||SP||6-0||215||02/02/1983||14||No College|
|45||Wheeler, Zack||SP||6-4||195||05/30/1990||5||No College|
|48||deGrom, Jacob||SP||6-4||180||06/19/1988||6||No College|