SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 32-17 the Yankees are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 28 wins. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 15-7- road record is +15% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 15-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 10.7 wins. The Yankees perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 61.1% of the time (#3 in the league). They have moved up from #5 in the league back on 5/6.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.24 which ranks #4 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #5 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is +2.36.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
60% @KC
1094 miles
MAY 25
LIKELY WIN
61% @KC
1094 miles
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
57% @KC
-- miles
MAY 27
CLOSE GAME
50% SD
1094 miles
MAY 28
LIKELY WIN
65% SD
--
MAY 29
LIKELY WIN
67% SD
--
MAY 30
CLOSE GAME
40% BOS
--
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
46% BOS
--
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
50% BOS
--
JUN 2
CLOSE GAME
59% BOS
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 9.6%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Astros by half a point. Their projected wins (5.56) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Rays by 2.5 points. With a -0.69 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Yankees are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Yankees are playing 15 games, traveling 6895 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the New York Yankees' next game. They are -129 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Yankees are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 15.2% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 19.1% chance before dropping to 6.9% on 5/9. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 8%. They have a 42.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 88% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 28.6% chance of winning the AL (5/2) and a 14.3% chance of winning it all (6/1). In simulations they make the World Series 15.5% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #11 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 45% #3 Easiest

Yankees' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.