SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 62-33 the Yankees are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 55 wins. They have won 60% of their road games and were expected to win 54%. At home they have a 69% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 60%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-5, 67%) is better than their expected 57% win percentage. The Yankees perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 62.7% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #5 in the league back on 5/6.

Their average run differential is +1.37 which ranks #1 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 10 games is +1.9 which ranks them #3 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Yankees next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUL 19
CLOSE GAME
49% COL
--
JUL 20
LIKELY WIN
66% COL
--
JUL 21
CLOSE GAME
50% COL
--
JUL 22
LIKELY WIN
60% @MIN
1019 miles
JUL 23
CLOSE GAME
54% @MIN
-- miles
JUL 24
CLOSE GAME
45% @MIN
-- miles
JUL 25
CLOSE GAME
52% @BOS
1121 miles
JUL 26
CLOSE GAME
54% @BOS
-- miles
JUL 27
CLOSE GAME
48% @BOS
-- miles
JUL 28
CLOSE GAME
41% @BOS
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 21.2%. At #1 in the league, they are ahead of the Astros by 2.5 points. With a +0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Yankees are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Yankees are playing 13 games, traveling 7554 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the New York Yankees are -232 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Yankees are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 15.2% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 19.1% chance before dropping to 5.1% on 6/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 16.7%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 14.3%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 90.2%. They are projected to finish #1 in the conference and have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 38.5% chance of winning the AL (8/5) and a 22.2% chance of winning it all (7/2). In simulations they make the World Series 32.5% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #5 Easiest

Yankees' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.