LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Phillies are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.9% chance of winning it all. On 3/26 they had a 1.9% chance before increasing to 6.9% on 5/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 5.1%. They have a 48.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 67% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the NL (7/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the World Series 12.9% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #7 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #11 Easiest

Phillies' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 30-21 the Phillies are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 27.6 wins. They have 15 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 12 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 50%. At home they have a 64% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (13-8, 62%) is better than their expected 51% win percentage. The Phillies are a good team (in simulations) and won 56% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#9 in the league). Their peak rank was #5 in the league back on 4/4.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.59 which ranks #4 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #6 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is +0.21 (#8 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 10 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
LIKELY LOSS
35% @MIL
697 miles
MAY 26
LIKELY LOSS
38% @MIL
-- miles
MAY 28
LIKELY WIN
60% STL
--
MAY 29
LIKELY WIN
66% STL
--
MAY 30
CLOSE GAME
40% STL
--
MAY 31
LIKELY LOSS
37% @LAD
2390 miles
JUN 1
LIKELY LOSS
33% @LAD
-- miles
JUN 2
LIKELY LOSS
38% @LAD
-- miles
JUN 3
LIKELY WIN
61% @SD
113 miles
JUN 4
CLOSE GAME
55% @SD
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 12.2%. At #3 in the league, they are fighting with the Cubs for positioning. With a -0.88 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Brewers by 1.5 points. With a -0.78 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Phillies are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Phillies are playing 13 games, traveling 30651 miles crossing 39 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Philadelphia Phillies' next game is on May 25. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.