REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK
Their 80 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.6 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 38.2. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 44.4. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 83.9 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.9 improvement and are projected to finish sixth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #4 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 87 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 1.9% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 5% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 14/1, 6.7% and odds to win the NL at 7/1, 12.5%. Bryce Harper helps them win 3 more games and more than double their chances of making and winning the World Series, but they are still not a good betting value across the board.
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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is -0.31 which ranks #11 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #10. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #8 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #12 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG
Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Phillies in all of their games would have earned a +557 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have lost -1453 units risking 100 units on each pick (76-86 PL). The Phillies have lost against the run line on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.