|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 8 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 8 games is not good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 8 games is a record of 4-4 (29% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 13.8%. At #7 in the league, they are fighting with the Cardinals for positioning. With a -1.06 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the D-Backs by one point. With a -1.63 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Phillies are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Phillies are playing 12 games, traveling 3066 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Philadelphia Phillies' next game. They are -104 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 50-47 the Phillies are behind their money line projected win total of 50.3 wins. They have 33 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 22 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 43% of their road games and were expected to win 47%. At home they have a 59% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-9, 47%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Phillies should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). Their peak rank was #5 in the league back on 4/5.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.2 which ranks #9 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #7. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #13 in road games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 10 games is -1.2 (#12 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Phillies are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 34.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 5/30 they had a 74.6% chance before dropping to 15% on 6/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 20.6%. They have a 2.8% chance of winning their division. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Phillies' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|52||Alvarez, Jose||RP||5-11||190||05/06/1989||7||No College|
|56||Eflin, Zach||SP||6-6||211||04/08/1994||4||No College|
|7||Franco, Maikel||3B||6-1||229||08/26/1992||6||No College|
|3||Harper, Bryce||RF||6-3||230||10/16/1992||8||No College|
|40||Haseley, Adam||CF||6-1||185||No College|
|16||Hernandez, Cesar||2B||5-10||167||05/23/1990||7||No College|
|17||Hoskins, Rhys||1B||6-4||240||03/17/1993||3||No College|
|47||Irvin, Cole||SP||6-4||190||01/31/1994||No College|
|50||Neris, Hector||RP||6-2||227||06/14/1989||6||No College|
|12||Nicasio, Juan||RP||6-4||252||08/31/1986||9||No College|
|43||Pivetta, Nick||SP||6-5||210||02/14/1993||3||No College|
|24||Quinn, Roman||CF||5-10||170||05/14/1993||3||No College|
|10||Realmuto, J.T.||C||6-1||213||03/18/1991||6||No College|
|---||Salas, Fernando||6-2||200||05/30/1985||10||No College|
|2||Segura, Jean||SS||5-10||220||03/17/1990||8||No College|
|55||Suarez, Ranger||RP||6-1||210||08/26/1995||2||No College|
|21||Velasquez, Vince||SP||6-3||203||06/07/1992||5||No College|
|5||Williams, Nick||LF||6-3||195||09/08/1993||3||No College|