Philadelphia
Phillies
Stadium Citizens Bank Park
31-21 Overall | NL EAST 1st
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Phillies.247262564.05
Schedule
Regular season
Tue  5/21
@
Cubs
L2-3
Wed  5/22
@
Cubs
L4-8
Thu  5/23
@
Cubs
W9-7
Fri  5/24
@
Brewers
W6-4
Sat  5/25
@
Brewers
W7-2
Sun  5/26
@
Brewers
2:10pm
Tue  5/28
vs
Cardinals
7:05pm
Wed  5/29
vs
Cardinals
7:05pm
Thu  5/30
vs
Cardinals
1:05pm
Fri  5/31
@
Dodgers
10:10pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Phillies are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.9% chance of winning it all. On 3/26 they had a 1.9% chance before increasing to 6.9% on 5/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 5.1%. They have a 48.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 67% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the NL (7/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the World Series 12.9% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #7 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #11 Easiest

Phillies' Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 30-21 the Phillies are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 27.6 wins. They have 15 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 12 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 50%. At home they have a 64% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (13-8, 62%) is better than their expected 51% win percentage. The Phillies are a good team (in simulations) and won 56% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#9 in the league). Their peak rank was #5 in the league back on 4/4.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.59 which ranks #4 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #6 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is +0.21 (#8 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 10 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

MAY 25
LIKELY LOSS
35% @MIL
697 miles
MAY 26
LIKELY LOSS
38% @MIL
-- miles
MAY 28
LIKELY WIN
60% STL
--
MAY 29
LIKELY WIN
66% STL
--
MAY 30
CLOSE GAME
40% STL
--
MAY 31
LIKELY LOSS
37% @LAD
2390 miles
JUN 1
LIKELY LOSS
33% @LAD
-- miles
JUN 2
LIKELY LOSS
38% @LAD
-- miles
JUN 3
LIKELY WIN
61% @SD
113 miles
JUN 4
CLOSE GAME
55% @SD
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 12.2%. At #3 in the league, they are fighting with the Cubs for positioning. With a -0.88 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Brewers by 1.5 points. With a -0.78 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Phillies are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Phillies are playing 13 games, traveling 30651 miles crossing 39 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Philadelphia Phillies' next game is on May 25. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
52 Alvarez, Jose RP5-1119005/06/19897No College
49 Arrieta, Jake SP6-422503/06/198610TCU
51 De Los Santos, Enyel RP6-317012/25/19952No College
58 Dominguez, Seranthony RP6-118511/25/19942No College
56 Eflin, Zach SP6-621104/08/19944No College
48 Eickhoff, Jerad SP6-424407/02/19905No College
7 Franco, Maikel 3B6-122908/26/19926No College
9 Gosselin, Phil SS6-120010/03/19887Virginia
65 Hammer, JD RP6-320507/12/19940Marshall
3 Harper, Bryce RF6-323010/16/19928No College
16 Hernandez, Cesar 2B5-1016705/23/19907No College
37 Herrera, Odubel CF5-1120612/29/19915No College
17 Hoskins, Rhys 1B6-424003/17/19933No College
4 Kingery, Scott SS5-1018004/29/19942Arizona
15 Knapp, Andrew C6-120411/09/19913California
22 McCutchen, Andrew LF5-1119510/10/198611No College
46 Morgan, Adam RP6-120802/27/19905Alabama
50 Neris, Hector RP6-222706/14/19896No College
12 Nicasio, Juan RP6-425208/31/19869No College
27 Nola, Aaron SP6-220006/04/19935LSU
10 Realmuto, J.T. C6-121303/18/19916No College
13 Rodriguez, Sean SS6-020004/26/198512No College
2 Segura, Jean SS5-1022003/17/19908No College
21 Velasquez, Vince SP6-320306/07/19925No College