LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

Before the season, the Pirates were projected for 78.7 points (average per simulation) but it does not look like they are going to reach that. Their chances have held steady this season. It was 80.3% on 4/21 and 77.4% on 4/24. Their current chances are at 76.9%. They have a 1% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #6 in the conference and have a 4% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #3 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #12 Easiest

Pirates' Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 12-10 the Pirates are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 10.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 7 good wins vs 5 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 6-4- road record is +16% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 4 in a row they have a 37.4% chance of seeing that extend to 6 straight. In simulations, the Pirates are a below average team and won 49.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 4/19.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.41 which ranks #10 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #12 in home games. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -0.83 which ranks them #12 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Pirates next 9 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
APR 25
CLOSE GAME
45% ARI
--
APR 26
LIKELY LOSS
32% @LAD
2133 miles
APR 27
LIKELY LOSS
29% @LAD
-- miles
APR 28
LIKELY LOSS
36% @LAD
-- miles
APR 30
CLOSE GAME
47% @TEX
1085 miles
MAY 1
CLOSE GAME
42% @TEX
-- miles
MAY 3
CLOSE GAME
43% OAK
--
MAY 4
CLOSE GAME
42% OAK
--
MAY 5
CLOSE GAME
51% OAK
--
MAY 7
CLOSE GAME
53% TEX
--

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 10.4%. At #6 in the league, they are fighting with the Cubs for positioning. With a -1.07 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Phillies in the league. With a -1.95 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Pittsburgh Pirates' next game. They are -125 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.