LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Pirates were projected for 78.7 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/21 they had an 80.3% chance before dropping to 68.3% on 6/5. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 71.5. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #9 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #4 Toughest

Pirates' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 36-41 the Pirates are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 34.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 26 good wins vs 23 bad losses. They have won 46% of their road games and were expected to win 42%. At home they have a 47% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 49%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-11, 42%) is under their expected 44% win percentage. In simulations where the Pirates played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 45.8% of the time (#22 in the league). Their peak rank was #14 in the league back on 4/7.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.99 which ranks #14 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. They are the #14 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #13 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is +0.91 (#5 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 10 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 10 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUN 26
LIKELY LOSS
14% @HOU
1138 miles
JUN 27
LIKELY LOSS
36% @HOU
-- miles
JUN 28
LIKELY LOSS
26% @MIL
1005 miles
JUN 29
LIKELY LOSS
34% @MIL
-- miles
JUN 30
LIKELY LOSS
28% @MIL
-- miles
JUL 1
CLOSE GAME
59% CHC
448 miles
JUL 2
CLOSE GAME
44% CHC
--
JUL 3
LIKELY LOSS
34% CHC
--
JUL 4
LIKELY LOSS
29% CHC
--
JUL 5
LIKELY LOSS
36% MIL
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 3-7 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 21.2%. At #12 in the league, they are fighting with the Reds for positioning. With a -0.71 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Mets by half a point. With a -0.94 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pirates are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pirates are playing 12 games, traveling 6102 miles crossing 9 time zones. They rank #22 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' next game is on June 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.