LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Padres are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/21 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 17.1% on 5/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 11%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 4.8%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 3.8% (25/1 odds) and a 2% chance of winning it all (50/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #13 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #15 Easiest

Padres' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

At 27-24 the Padres are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 25.7 wins. They have 13 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 10 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 13-10- road record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-10, 47%) is under their expected 49% win percentage. In simulations, the Padres are a below average team and won 49.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 4/19 they were at 42.6%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #20 winning 45.7%.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.31 which ranks #11 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -0.58.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
57% @TOR
2166 miles
MAY 26
LIKELY WIN
62% @TOR
-- miles
MAY 27
CLOSE GAME
50% @NYY
341 miles
MAY 28
LIKELY LOSS
35% @NYY
-- miles
MAY 29
LIKELY LOSS
33% @NYY
-- miles
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
45% MIA
--
JUN 1
LIKELY WIN
70% MIA
--
JUN 2
LIKELY WIN
69% MIA
--
JUN 3
LIKELY LOSS
39% PHI
--
JUN 4
CLOSE GAME
45% PHI
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 17.4%. At #6 in the league, they are behind the Braves by 1.5 points. Their projected wins (5.04) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Pirates by half a point. With a +1.49 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Padres are the 7th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Padres are playing 14 games, traveling 21108 miles crossing 27 time zones. They rank #5 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the San Diego Padres' next game. They are -125 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.