REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK
The regular season went worse than expected. They won 66 games vs an expected win total of 69.3. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 38.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (46.5%). They won 43.2% on the road which was better than expected (39%). We are projecting a +6.3 win improvement next season. They are averaging 72.3 wins per simulation and are projected to finish twelfth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 77.1 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 50/1, 2%. Their odds of winning the NL are 25/1, 3.8%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. In the simulations, Manny Machado is not having a huge impact. The Padres improved their projected win total by a shade under 2 wins. As far as superstar players go, Machado has a relatively low on base percentage and home run rate.
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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Since last season their average run differential is -0.93 which ranks #14 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #15 in home games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG
Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Padres in all of their games would be down -1716 units. Against the run line, they have lost -1240 units risking 100 units on each pick (81-81 PL). They are down against the run line at home and on the road.