LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Padres were projected for 71.7 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/3 they had a 67.5% chance before increasing to 81.2% on 5/26. Their current chances are at 72.6%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #4 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Padres' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 46-50 Padres 'should have' 48 wins. They have 31 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 22 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 47%. At home they have a 46% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 54%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-10, 38%) is under their expected 51% win percentage. In simulations where the Padres played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.7% of the time (#22 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 4/19.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.49 which ranks #13 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #12 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is -0.78 which ranks them #10 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 10 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUL 19
LIKELY LOSS
37% @CHC
1733 miles
JUL 20
LIKELY LOSS
37% @CHC
-- miles
JUL 21
LIKELY LOSS
30% @CHC
-- miles
JUL 23
LIKELY LOSS
36% @NYM
2439 miles
JUL 24
CLOSE GAME
51% @NYM
-- miles
JUL 25
CLOSE GAME
45% @NYM
-- miles
JUL 26
CLOSE GAME
50% SF
2439 miles
JUL 27
CLOSE GAME
59% SF
--
JUL 28
LIKELY LOSS
37% SF
--
JUL 29
CLOSE GAME
41% BAL
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 19.8%. At #11 in the league, they are fighting with the Rockies for positioning. There is only a -0.16 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are ahead of the Pirates by half a point. With a -0.74 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Padres are the 2nd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Padres are playing 13 games, traveling 23525 miles crossing 28 time zones. They rank #3 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the San Diego Padres' next game. They are +135 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.