|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 9 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 11.1%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Astros by half a point. With a -1.13 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Twins by half a point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Twins. Their projected wins (4.69) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Seattle Mariners' next game. They are -165 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 16-11 the Mariners are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 12.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 10 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 11-4- road record is +24% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 11.5% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 24.8% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Mariners are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 3/25.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.04 which ranks #4 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #8 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1 (#12 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Mariners are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/19 they had less than a 1% chance before increasing to 3.5% on 4/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.4%. They have a 9.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 49% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the AL (7/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the World Series 5.6% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Mariners' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|37||Armstrong, Shawn||RP||6-2||225||09/11/1990||5||No College|
|1||Beckham, Tim||SS||6-1||210||01/27/1990||6||No College|
|60||Bradford, Chasen||RP||6-1||225||08/05/1989||3||No College|
|65||Brennan, Brandon||RP||6-4||220||07/26/1991||1||No College|
|32||Bruce, Jay||1B||6-3||230||04/03/1987||12||No College|
|55||Elias, Roenis||RP||5-11||197||08/01/1988||6||No College|
|10||Encarnacion, Edwin||1B||6-1||230||01/07/1983||15||No College|
|35||Gearrin, Cory||RP||6-1||205||04/14/1986||8||No College|
|7||Gonzales, Marco||SP||6-1||199||02/16/1992||5||No College|
|9||Gordon, Dee||2B||5-11||168||04/22/1988||9||No College|
|17||Haniger, Mitch||RF||6-2||204||12/23/1990||4||No College|
|27||Healy, Ryon||3B||6-4||232||01/10/1992||4||No College|
|34||Hernandez, Felix||SP||6-3||225||04/08/1986||15||No College|
|18||Kikuchi, Yusei||SP||6-0||200||06/17/1991||1||No College|
|8||Leake, Mike||SP||5-11||170||11/12/1987||10||No College|
|25||Moore, Dylan||3B||6-0||185||08/02/1992||1||No College|
|2||Murphy, Tom||C||6-1||216||04/03/1991||5||No College|
|22||Narvaez, Omar||C||6-0||220||02/10/1992||4||No College|
|59||Rosscup, Zac||RP||6-2||220||06/09/1988||6||No College|
|54||Sadzeck, Connor||RP||6-7||240||10/01/1991||2||No College|
|16||Santana, Domingo||LF||6-5||228||08/05/1992||6||No College|
|0||Smith, Mallex||CF||5-10||180||05/06/1993||4||No College|
|50||Swanson, Erik||RP||6-3||220||No College|
|30||Swarzak, Anthony||RP||6-4||215||09/10/1985||10||No College|
|20||Vogelbach, Daniel||DH||6-0||250||12/17/1992||4||No College|