LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Mariners were projected for 74.4 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/21 they had a 91.8% chance before dropping to 67.3% on 6/5. Their current chances are at 71.8%.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #8 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #4 Toughest

Mariners' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 36-47 Mariners 'should have' 39 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 22 good wins but they also have 22 bad losses. They have won 46% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 40% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 49%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 11-9 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 9 wins. In simulations where the Mariners played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 44% of the time (#23 in the league). Their peak rank was #9 in the league back on 4/21.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is -0.7 which ranks #10 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #11 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +0.69 (#6 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 10 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUN 26
CLOSE GAME
49% @MIL
1687 miles
JUN 27
CLOSE GAME
42% @MIL
-- miles
JUN 28
LIKELY LOSS
21% @HOU
1005 miles
JUN 29
LIKELY LOSS
25% @HOU
-- miles
JUN 30
LIKELY LOSS
34% @HOU
-- miles
JUL 2
CLOSE GAME
54% STL
--
JUL 3
CLOSE GAME
55% STL
--
JUL 4
LIKELY LOSS
39% STL
--
JUL 5
LIKELY LOSS
27% OAK
--
JUL 6
CLOSE GAME
46% OAK
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 13.8%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the White Sox by 3 points. With a -0.85 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Blue Jays by 5.5 points. With a -0.52 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Mariners are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mariners are playing 11 games, traveling 16413 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #3 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Seattle Mariners' next game is on June 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.