NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 9 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
APR 25
LIKELY WIN
69% TEX
--
APR 26
LIKELY WIN
63% TEX
--
APR 27
CLOSE GAME
57% TEX
--
APR 28
CLOSE GAME
52% TEX
--
APR 30
CLOSE GAME
50% CHC
--
MAY 1
CLOSE GAME
52% CHC
--
MAY 3
CLOSE GAME
46% @CLE
2023 miles
MAY 4
CLOSE GAME
45% @CLE
-- miles
MAY 5
LIKELY LOSS
40% @CLE
-- miles
MAY 6
CLOSE GAME
42% @NYY
407 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 11.1%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Astros by half a point. With a -1.13 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Twins by half a point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Twins. Their projected wins (4.69) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Seattle Mariners' next game. They are -165 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 16-11 the Mariners are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 12.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 10 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 11-4- road record is +24% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 11.5% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 24.8% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Mariners are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 3/25.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.04 which ranks #4 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #8 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1 (#12 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Mariners are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/19 they had less than a 1% chance before increasing to 3.5% on 4/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.4%. They have a 9.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 49% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the AL (7/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the World Series 5.6% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #5 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 42% #3 Easiest

Mariners' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.