|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 48-49 the Giants are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 43 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 34 impressive wins where they were given
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.39 which ranks #12 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #9. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #15 in home games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is +3 (#1 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Giants next 9 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 9.9%. At #9 in the league, they are behind the D-Backs by one point. With a -0.99 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Rockies by 1.5 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rockies. There is only a 0.26 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Giants are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Giants are playing 13 games, traveling 13777 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the San Francisco Giants are +162 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Giants are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 5/2 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 3.9% on 7/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 5.1%. Before the start of their 6 game winning streak they were at 0.3%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 0.7% (150/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Giants' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|19||Austin, Tyler||LF||6-2||220||09/06/1991||4||No College|
|50||Blach, Ty||RP||6-2||220||10/20/1990||4||No College|
|40||Bumgarner, Madison||SP||6-4||242||08/01/1989||11||No College|
|49||Dyson, Sam||RP||6-1||210||05/07/1988||8||South Carolina|
|45||Holland, Derek||RP||6-2||213||10/09/1986||11||No College|
|63||Jerez, Williams||RP||6-4||210||05/16/1992||2||No College|
|54||Moronta, Reyes||RP||5-11||241||01/06/1993||3||No College|
|12||Panik, Joe||2B||6-1||199||10/30/1990||6||No College|
|1||Pillar, Kevin||CF||6-0||205||01/04/1989||7||No College|
|37||Pomeranz, Drew||SP||6-5||228||11/22/1988||9||Ole Miss|
|28||Posey, Buster||C||6-1||207||03/27/1987||11||Florida State|
|29||Samardzija, Jeff||SP||6-5||240||01/23/1985||12||Notre Dame|
|48||Sandoval, Pablo||3B||5-11||268||08/11/1986||12||No College|
|13||Smith, Will||RP||6-5||248||07/10/1989||7||No College|
|7||Solano, Donovan||SS||5-10||205||12/17/1987||6||No College|
|21||Vogt, Stephen||C||6-0||211||11/01/1984||7||No College|