|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
Before the season, the Giants were projected for 71.8 points (average per simulation) but it does not look like they are going to reach that. On 3/25 they had a 71.9% chance before dropping to 62.8% on 5/21 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 63. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Giants' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 21-29 the Giants are behind their money line projected win total of 22.6 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 12 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 10-16- home record is -10% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 40.8% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Giants played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 39.9% of the time (#27 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #23 winning 44.5%.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.38 which ranks #14 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. They are the #13 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #15 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -2.67 which ranks them #15 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 9 games is not good. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 13.8%. At #13 in the league, they are behind the Reds by 2 points. With a -1.51 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Nationals by 1.5 points. With a -1.09 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Giants are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Giants are playing 13 games, traveling 43127 miles crossing 51 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the San Francisco Giants' next game. They are -116 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|19||Austin, Tyler||LF||6-2||220||09/06/1991||4||No College|
|40||Bumgarner, Madison||SP||6-4||242||08/01/1989||11||No College|
|49||Dyson, Sam||RP||6-1||210||05/07/1988||8||South Carolina|
|45||Holland, Derek||SP||6-2||213||10/09/1986||11||No College|
|10||Longoria, Evan||3B||6-1||215||10/07/1985||12||No College|
|54||Moronta, Reyes||RP||5-11||241||01/06/1993||3||No College|
|12||Panik, Joe||2B||6-1||199||10/30/1990||6||No College|
|1||Pillar, Kevin||CF||6-0||205||01/04/1989||7||No College|
|37||Pomeranz, Drew||SP||6-5||228||11/22/1988||9||Ole Miss|
|28||Posey, Buster||C||6-1||207||03/27/1987||11||Florida State|
|57||Rodriguez, Dereck||SP||6-1||215||06/05/1992||2||No College|
|29||Samardzija, Jeff||SP||6-5||240||01/23/1985||12||Notre Dame|
|48||Sandoval, Pablo||3B||5-11||268||08/11/1986||12||No College|
|13||Smith, Will||RP||6-5||248||07/10/1989||7||No College|
|7||Solano, Donovan||SS||5-10||205||12/17/1987||6||No College|
|59||Suarez, Andrew||SP||6-2||210||09/11/1992||2||Miami (FL)|
|61||Vincent, Nick||RP||6-0||185||07/12/1986||8||No College|
|21||Vogt, Stephen||C||6-0||211||11/01/1984||7||No College|