|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 4 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 4 more 'toss up' games, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 17.5%. At #6 in the league, they are behind the Brewers by half a point. There is only a 0.18 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are in a battle with Phillies in the league. With a +1.06 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cardinals are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cardinals are playing 13 games, traveling 6004 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the St Louis Cardinals' next game. They are -105 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 49-46 the Cardinals are behind their money line projected win total of 49.8 wins. They have 31 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 26 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 45% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 58% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-7, 56%) is better than their expected 51% win percentage. The Cardinals should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.6% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 7/3.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.15 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #11 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 10 games is +1.2 which ranks them #6 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Cardinals are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 50.7% chance of making the playoffs. On 5/1 they had an 81.1% chance before dropping to 6.1% on 5/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 27.4%. They have a 13.5% chance of winning their division. Based on the odds, they have a 7.7% chance of winning the NL (12/1) and a 3.8% chance of winning it all (25/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Cardinals' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|60||Brebbia, John||RP||6-1||200||05/30/1990||3||No College|
|12||DeJong, Paul||SS||6-0||200||08/02/1993||3||No College|
|22||Flaherty, Jack||SP||6-4||225||10/15/1995||3||No College|
|25||Fowler, Dexter||RF||6-5||205||03/22/1986||12||No College|
|65||Gallegos, Giovanny||RP||6-2||210||08/14/1991||3||No College|
|53||Gant, John||RP||6-4||195||08/06/1992||4||No College|
|46||Goldschmidt, Paul||1B||6-3||225||09/10/1987||9||No College|
|43||Hudson, Dakota||SP||6-5||215||09/15/1994||2||Mississippi State|
|7||Knizner, Andrew||C||6-1||225||02/03/1995||1||NC State|
|18||Martinez, Carlos||RP||5-11||200||09/21/1991||7||No College|
|38||Martinez, Jose||RF||6-7||230||07/25/1988||4||No College|
|39||Mikolas, Miles||SP||6-5||220||08/23/1988||5||No College|
|21||Miller, Andrew||RP||6-7||205||05/21/1985||14||North Carolina|
|34||Munoz, Yairo||3B||6-0||210||01/23/1995||2||No College|
|41||O'Neill, Tyler||LF||5-11||210||06/22/1995||2||No College|
|62||Ponce de Leon, Daniel||SP||6-3||205||01/16/1992||2||No College|
|40||Shreve, Chasen||RP||6-4||195||07/12/1990||6||No College|
|---||Sosa, Edmundo||6-0||200||03/06/1996||1||No College|
|52||Wacha, Michael||SP||6-5||215||07/01/1991||7||Texas A&M|
|50||Wainwright, Adam||SP||6-7||220||08/30/1981||14||No College|
|32||Wieters, Matt||C||6-5||230||05/21/1986||11||Georgia Tech|