SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 25-25 the Cardinals are behind their money line projected win total of 26.2 wins. They have 17 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 15 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 42% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 58% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 55%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 5-14, 26%. The Cardinals should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #8 winning 55.9%.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.36 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #9. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #9 in road games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is -0.64 (#12 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 9 games is not good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
41% ATL
--
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
52% ATL
--
MAY 28
LIKELY LOSS
40% @PHI
809 miles
MAY 29
LIKELY LOSS
34% @PHI
-- miles
MAY 30
CLOSE GAME
60% @PHI
-- miles
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
47% CHC
809 miles
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
43% CHC
--
JUN 2
LIKELY LOSS
36% CHC
--
JUN 4
CLOSE GAME
60% CIN
--
JUN 5
LIKELY WIN
65% CIN
--

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 17.7%. At #9 in the league, they are behind the D-Backs by half a point. With a -1.29 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Mets by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Mets. There is only a -0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cardinals are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cardinals are playing 13 games, traveling 5386 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the St Louis Cardinals' next game. They are +106 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Cardinals are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 50.7% chance of making the playoffs. On 5/1 they had an 81.1% chance before dropping to 17.1% on 5/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 17.9%. They have a 3% chance of winning their division. Based on the odds, they have a 10% chance of winning the NL (9/1) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all (18/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #13 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #3 Toughest

Cardinals' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.