LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Rays are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.7% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 1.1% chance before increasing to 12.1% on 5/5. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 6.5%. They have a 30.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 83% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 10% chance of winning the AL (9/1) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all (18/1). In simulations they make the World Series 14.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #11 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #5 Easiest

Rays' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 29-19 the Rays are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 27.4 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 16 good wins vs 14 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 16-8- road record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-8, 53%) is under their expected 57% win percentage. The Rays are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.2% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#6 in the league). They have moved up from #12 in the league back on 4/8.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.25 which ranks #3 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #4. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is +0.18 (#7 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 10 games is very good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
49% @CLE
951 miles
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
41% @CLE
-- miles
MAY 27
LIKELY WIN
65% TOR
951 miles
MAY 28
LIKELY WIN
80% TOR
--
MAY 29
LIKELY WIN
79% TOR
--
MAY 30
CLOSE GAME
53% MIN
--
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
56% MIN
--
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
51% MIN
--
JUN 2
LIKELY WIN
68% MIN
--
JUN 4
LIKELY WIN
79% @DET
1008 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 20.6%. At #4 in the league, they are behind the Yankees by 2.5 points. They have a +0.69 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Red Sox by 3.5 points. With a +0.8 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rays are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rays are playing 15 games, traveling 11490 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Tampa Bay Rays' next game. They are +121 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.