REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK
The regular season went better than expected. They won 90 games vs an expected win total of 78.8. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 48.1% on the road which was better than expected (45.5%). They won 51 at home and were expected to win 41.9. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 90 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 89 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 1.8% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 4.1% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 30/1, 3.2% and odds to win the AL at 15/1, 6.2%.
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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.43 which ranks #6 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #8 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG
Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Rays in all of their games would have earned a +1890 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have delivered a +1870 profit risking 100 units on each game (93-69 PL). The Rays have lost against the run line on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.