LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Rays are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.7% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 1.1% chance before increasing to 12.5% on 6/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.5%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 3.9%. They have a 6.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #6 in the conference and have a 51% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 10% chance of winning the AL (9/1) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all (18/1). In simulations they make the World Series 6.7% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #3 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Rays' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 56-43 the Rays are behind their money line projected win total of 56.4 wins. They have 33 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 31 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 59% of their road games and were expected to win 55%. At home they have a 54% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 59%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 6.2% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 48.9% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Rays are a good team (in simulations) and won 56% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). They have moved up from #12 in the league back on 4/8.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +0.91 which ranks #5 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is +0.73 which ranks them #7 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Rays next 9 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUL 19
LIKELY WIN
76% CHW
1031 miles
JUL 20
LIKELY WIN
74% CHW
--
JUL 21
LIKELY WIN
87% CHW
--
JUL 22
CLOSE GAME
47% BOS
--
JUL 23
CLOSE GAME
47% BOS
--
JUL 24
CLOSE GAME
43% BOS
--
JUL 26
LIKELY WIN
63% @TOR
1113 miles
JUL 27
LIKELY WIN
67% @TOR
-- miles
JUL 28
CLOSE GAME
58% @TOR
-- miles
JUL 30
CLOSE GAME
42% @BOS
1199 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 6-3 (28% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 8.1%. Their chances of winning their next 9 are 1%. At #6 in the league, they are behind the Athletics by half a point. Their projected wins (5.66) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Red Sox by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Red Sox. Their projected wins (5.66) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rays are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rays are playing 12 games, traveling 11474 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Tampa Bay Rays' next game is on July 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.