|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 25-23 the Rangers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 21 wins. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 17-8- home record is +23% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (11-8, 58%) is better than their expected 45% win percentage. The Rangers should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 4/10 they were at 44.2%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #24 winning 44.4%.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.31 which ranks #7 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #6 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #12 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +0.08 which ranks them #8 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 22.4%. At #6 in the league, they are behind the Red Sox by half a point. There is only a -0.1 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are in a battle with Indians in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Indians. There is only a 0.13 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Rangers are the 13th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rangers are playing 15 games, traveling 13635 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Texas Rangers' next game. They are +105 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Rangers are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/13 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 11.4% on 4/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 9.4%. Before the start of their 5 game winning streak they were at 7.2%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AL at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Rangers' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|---||Andrus, Elvis||6-0||200||08/26/1988||11||No College|
|14||Cabrera, Asdrubal||3B||6-0||205||11/13/1985||13||No College|
|53||Chavez, Jesse||RP||6-2||175||08/21/1983||12||No College|
|17||Choo, Shin-Soo||LF||5-11||205||07/13/1982||15||No College|
|13||Gallo, Joey||LF||6-5||230||11/19/1993||5||No College|
|46||Gomez, Jeanmar||RP||6-3||215||02/10/1988||10||No College|
|11||Guzman, Ronald||1B||6-4||225||10/20/1994||2||No College|
|79||Jimenez, A.J.||C||6-0||192||05/01/1990||1||No College|
|57||Jurado, Ariel||RP||6-1||230||01/30/1996||2||No College|
|27||Kelley, Shawn||RP||6-2||237||04/26/1984||11||No College|
|9||Kiner-Falefa, Isiah||C||5-10||176||03/23/1995||2||No College|
|25||Leclerc, Jose||RP||6-0||190||12/19/1993||4||No College|
|35||Lynn, Lance||SP||6-5||255||05/12/1987||8||Ole Miss|
|31||Martin, Chris||RP||6-8||225||06/02/1986||4||No College|
|2||Mathis, Jeff||C||6-0||205||03/31/1983||15||No College|
|30||Mazara, Nomar||RF||6-4||215||04/26/1995||4||No College|
|19||Miller, Shelby||SP||6-3||225||10/10/1990||8||No College|
|12||Odor, Rougned||2B||5-11||195||02/03/1994||6||No College|
|24||Pence, Hunter||DH||6-4||220||04/13/1983||13||No College|
|52||Sampson, Adrian||RP||6-2||200||10/07/1991||3||No College|
|38||Santana, Danny||2B||5-11||190||11/07/1990||6||No College|
|54||Springs, Jeffrey||RP||6-3||193||09/20/1992||2||No College|