|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Blue Jays next 9 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 9 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 3-6 (28% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 17.8%. At #12 in the league, they are behind the Mariners by 2 points. With a -1.67 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Tigers in the league. With a +0.53 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Blue Jays are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Blue Jays are playing 13 games, traveling 14742 miles crossing 12 time zones. They rank #13 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Toronto Blue Jays' next game. They are +105 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 20-31 Blue Jays 'should have' 24 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 15 good wins vs 14 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 9-17- home record is -15% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 35.3% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Blue Jays played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40.6% of the time (#24 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 4/12.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.75 which ranks #10 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #11 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
Before the season, the Blue Jays were projected for 69.2 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 4/12 they had a 61.7% chance before increasing to 78.7% on 5/5. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 64.5. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AL at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Blue Jays' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|31||Biagini, Joe||RP||6-5||235||05/29/1990||4||No College|
|8||Biggio, Cavan||2B||6-1||203||04/11/1995||1||Notre Dame|
|49||Davis, Jonathan||CF||5-8||190||05/12/1992||2||No College|
|3||Drury, Brandon||3B||6-2||210||08/21/1992||5||No College|
|16||Galvis, Freddy||SS||5-10||185||11/14/1989||8||No College|
|43||Gaviglio, Sam||RP||6-2||195||05/22/1990||3||Oregon State|
|51||Giles, Ken||RP||6-2||205||09/20/1990||6||No College|
|15||Grichuk, Randal||CF||6-1||205||08/13/1991||6||No College|
|27||Guerrero, Vladimir||3B||6-2||250||03/16/1999||1||No College|
|13||Gurriel, Lourdes||2B||6-2||185||10/10/1993||2||No College|
|46||Hudson, Daniel||RP||6-3||225||03/09/1987||10||No College|
|33||Jackson, Edwin||SP||6-2||215||09/09/1983||17||No College|
|9||Jansen, Danny||C||6-2||225||04/15/1995||2||No College|
|64||Law, Derek||RP||6-3||224||09/14/1990||4||No College|
|58||Mayza, Tim||RP||6-3||220||01/15/1992||3||No College|
|45||Pannone, Thomas||RP||6-0||195||04/28/1994||2||No College|
|59||Rosscup, Zac||RP||6-2||220||06/09/1988||6||No College|
|41||Sanchez, Aaron||SP||6-4||215||07/01/1992||6||No College|
|14||Smoak, Justin||1B||6-4||220||12/05/1986||10||South Carolina|
|5||Sogard, Eric||2B||5-10||185||05/22/1986||9||Arizona State|
|44||Tellez, Rowdy||DH||6-4||220||03/16/1995||2||No College|
|57||Thornton, Trent||SP||6-0||175||09/30/1993||1||North Carolina|