|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 36-62 Blue Jays 'should have' 43 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 29 good wins vs 28 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 18-30- home record is -12% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-10, 41%) is under their expected 43% win percentage. In simulations where the Blue Jays played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40.6% of the time (#27 in the league). Their peak rank was #23 in the league back on 5/5.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is -0.93 which ranks #11 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #13 in home games. Their average run differential in their past 10 games is -1.2 which ranks them #10 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 10 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 12.1%. At #13 in the league, they are fighting with the Royals for positioning. With a +0.87 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Tigers by 4.5 points. With a +1.19 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Blue Jays are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Blue Jays are playing 14 games, traveling 5918 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Toronto Blue Jays' next game. They are -161 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
Before the season, the Blue Jays were projected for 69.2 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 5/5 they had a 78.7% chance before dropping to 55.7% on 6/12. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 63.4.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Blue Jays' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|31||Biagini, Joe||RP||6-5||235||05/29/1990||4||No College|
|8||Biggio, Cavan||2B||6-2||200||04/11/1995||1||Notre Dame|
|3||Drury, Brandon||3B||6-2||210||08/21/1992||5||No College|
|---||Font, Wilmer||RP||6-4||265||05/24/1990||5||No College|
|16||Galvis, Freddy||SS||5-10||185||11/14/1989||8||No College|
|43||Gaviglio, Sam||RP||6-2||195||05/22/1990||3||Oregon State|
|51||Giles, Ken||RP||6-2||205||09/20/1990||6||No College|
|15||Grichuk, Randal||CF||6-1||205||08/13/1991||6||No College|
|27||Guerrero, Vladimir||3B||6-2||250||03/16/1999||1||No College|
|13||Gurriel, Lourdes||LF||6-2||185||10/10/1993||2||No College|
|37||Hernandez, Teoscar||LF||6-2||180||10/15/1992||4||No College|
|46||Hudson, Daniel||RP||6-3||225||03/09/1987||10||No College|
|9||Jansen, Danny||C||6-2||225||04/15/1995||2||No College|
|64||Law, Derek||RP||6-3||224||09/14/1990||4||No College|
|58||Mayza, Tim||RP||6-3||220||01/15/1992||3||No College|
|28||McKinney, Billy||RF||6-1||205||08/23/1994||2||No College|
|---||Pannone, Thomas||6-0||195||04/28/1994||2||No College|
|35||Phelps, David||RP||6-2||200||10/09/1986||7||Notre Dame|
|41||Sanchez, Aaron||SP||6-4||215||07/01/1992||6||No College|
|14||Smoak, Justin||1B||6-4||220||12/05/1986||10||South Carolina|
|5||Sogard, Eric||2B||5-10||185||05/22/1986||9||Arizona State|
|57||Thornton, Trent||SP||6-0||175||09/30/1993||1||North Carolina|
|62||Waguespack, Jacob||RP||6-6||225||11/05/1993||1||Ole Miss|