LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Nationals are World Series contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 7.4% chance of winning it all. On 4/14 they had a 10% chance before dropping to 0.5% on 5/25. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 2.7%. They have a 30.1% chance of winning their division. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#10 in the conference) and only have a 54% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the NL (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1). In simulations they make the World Series 7.1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #8 Toughest

Nationals' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 38-40 Nationals 'should have' 42 wins. They have 27 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 15 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 45% of their road games and were expected to win 50%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 57%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 12-7 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 11.1 wins. The Nationals should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 5/24.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.14 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #10. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #10 in home games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is +1.09 (#3 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 10 games is very good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUN 26
LIKELY WIN
61% @MIA
925 miles
JUN 27
CLOSE GAME
52% @MIA
-- miles
JUN 28
LIKELY WIN
74% @DET
1157 miles
JUN 29
LIKELY WIN
79% @DET
-- miles
JUN 30
LIKELY WIN
80% @DET
-- miles
JUL 2
LIKELY WIN
71% MIA
--
JUL 3
LIKELY WIN
64% MIA
--
JUL 4
CLOSE GAME
51% MIA
--
JUL 5
LIKELY WIN
65% KC
--
JUL 6
LIKELY WIN
71% KC
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 7-3 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 9 or more are 9.6%. Their chances of winning their next 10 are 1.4%. At #10 in the league, they are behind the Padres by half a point. With a +1.88 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Reds by 1.5 points. With a +2.54 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Nationals are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nationals are playing 11 games, traveling 5163 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Washington Nationals' next game. They are -158 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.