REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 91. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 50.6% on the road which was worse than expected (52.3%). They won 41 at home and were expected to win 48.6. We are projecting a +10.8 win improvement next season. They are averaging 92.8 wins per simulation and are projected to finish second in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Cubs who are projected for 91.8 wins. They are a contender with a 9.9% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 19.5% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 12/1, 7.7% and odds to win the NL at 6/1, 14.3%. Their projection is rock solid, but it could change if/when Bryce Harper signs with a division rival (ie. Philadelphia).

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Since last season their average run differential is +0.54 which ranks #5 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #9. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #3 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Nationals in all of their games would be down -381 units. Against the run line, they have lost -1255 units risking 100 units on each pick (78-84 PL). They are down against the run line at home and on the road.