NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Nationals next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 6 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
APR 26
LIKELY WIN
66% SD
--
APR 27
LIKELY WIN
63% SD
--
APR 28
LIKELY WIN
66% SD
--
APR 29
LIKELY WIN
61% STL
--
APR 30
CLOSE GAME
54% STL
--
MAY 1
CLOSE GAME
55% STL
--
MAY 2
CLOSE GAME
56% STL
--
MAY 3
CLOSE GAME
55% @PHI
122 miles
MAY 4
CLOSE GAME
53% @PHI
-- miles
MAY 5
CLOSE GAME
53% @PHI
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 14.4%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the Brewers by half a point. There is only a -0.12 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are ahead of the Rockies by one point. With a +1.82 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Washington Nationals' next game is on April 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 11-12 the Nationals are behind their money line projected win total of 12.5 wins. They have 8 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 5-6- home record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-9, 53%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Nationals are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.5% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #7 winning 56.2%.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.3 which ranks #6 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #13 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -0.58 (#10 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Nationals are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 7.4% chance of winning it all. On 4/3 they had a 3.6% chance before increasing to 10% on 4/14. Their current chances are at 7.2%. They have a 56.6% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 76.2% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. Based on the odds, they have a 10% chance of winning the NL (9/1) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all (18/1). In simulations they make the World Series 15% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #9 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #13 Easiest

Nationals' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.