SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE

Nolan Arenado was removed from yesterday’s game of beanball after being hit by a pitch in the forearm. He was supposedly removed as a precaution to keep the swelling down but we will find out if he is in the lineup tonight for their game against the Padres. He is not expected to miss much time, if any.

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 9.9 DraftKings pts Nolan Arenado is the #3 ranked third baseman. He is the #6 highest priced third baseman ($4700). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $5.4K. Josh Donaldson is also priced at $4700, and Arenado is a better option at this price. He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Manny Machado (9.1 FP), Rafael Devers (8.2 FP), and Scott Kingery (8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.5 FPs, a value reached in 97 of 236 games (41%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 38%.

• 6/25 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: COL 4.6 (#17 Most Today) vs SF 4.8 (#14 Most)
• PROJECTION (POS RANK): 9.86 Fantasy Points (#2), 4.04 plate appearances (#12), 0.325 BA (#3), 1.049 OPS (#2), 0.29 HR (#2), 0.7 RBI (#3), 0.66 runs (#5), 0.02 stolen bases (#17),

FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 13 FanDuel pts Nolan Arenado is the #3 ranked third baseman. He is the #2 highest priced third baseman ($4300). Based on 6/25 salaries and projected points per dollar, Arenado is worth $4.3K. Kris Bryant (15 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Based on salary, he is expected to have 13.1 FPs, a value reached in 80 of 236 games (34%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 42%.

Arenado is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among third basemen for the rest of week 14 is #4, which is less than his market rank of #2. In week 15 rankings vs other third basemen instead of Arenado consider these better options at lower start percentages: Mike Moustakas (20.5 FP), Anthony Rendon (19.9 FP), and Kris Bryant (21 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 21 fantasy points (WK 15). Owners expect him to be the most productive third baseman of the week, but he is projected to be the #4 third baseman. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 2.5 short of expectations.

He is projected for 18.5 fantasy points in week 15 (#4 3B) in 5 games.

Nolan Arenado last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Nolan Arenado is projected to be the #2 rated player of 7 third basemen who are owned in 100% of leagues. If you sort these 7 players based on their actual fantasy production and then by their current start percentage, he is the #2 rated player. He is fairly rated as an elite third baseman. He is projected for 302 fantasy points in 81 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#3) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Nolan Arenado behind Rendon and above Moustakas and the projections agree.

He has more relative strengths than weaknesses which makes him a better value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 22 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 3 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 13.9 FD points and 11 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 23 and on FanDuel it was 31.4 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.