headshot
Nelson
Cruz
College None
Team Minnesota Twins
23DH
6'2"Height
230Weight
38Age
15Exp
R/RBats/Throws
Nelson Cruz's Fantasy Scouting Report

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Most already consider Nelson Cruz to be a good starting 1B/DH, but the projections indicate he is an elite fantasy option. As of 4/21, Nelson Cruz is the #15 ranked 1B/DH based on ownership percentage (97%). He is projected to be the #3 1B/DH. Even if he is owned in plenty of leagues, he is still undervalued and if you act quickly there is a clear buy low opportunity. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better 1B/DH option available. Of the 3 1B/DHs (Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana) with this market rank (97% Owned), he is the top rated one. He is projected for 451 fantasy points in 130 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #2 highest average. The market ranks Nelson Cruz behind Santana and above Voit but the projections rank Nelson Cruz over Santana.

Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

He has more relative weaknesses than strengths which hurts his value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Nelson Cruz is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #15 while his projection rank (rest of week 4) is #1. When compared to other 1B/DHs in week 5 Giancarlo Stanton (20.2 FP) is projected for more points and is starting in fewer leagues. Edwin Encarnacion (17.2 FP), Joey Votto (17.4 FP), Carlos Santana (16.8 FP), Anthony Rizzo (16.1 FP), and Paul Goldschmidt (18.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Cruz but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 79% of leagues he is expected to produce 16.5 fantasy points (WK 5). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #14 1B/DH of week 5. He is projected to be better than that (the #5 1B/DH). Even though his per game projected FP average is not better than normal, he will benefit from playing a projected 5 games.

He is projected for 18.9 fantasy points in week 5 (#5 1B/DH) in 5 games.


  • Based on 4/21 start percentages, Nelson Cruz is valued behind Votto and above Voit but the projections rank Nelson Cruz over Votto in week 5.
  • Nelson Cruz last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (4/21): There are 11 other options at $3400 (Shin-Soo Choo, Leury Garcia, A.J. Pollock, Nick Castellanos, Kevin Kiermaier, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Brandon Nimmo, Niko Goodrum, Shohei Ohtani, Jeff McNeil) and Cruz is the best option of these 12. Adam Jones (9.1 FP), Nick Markakis (9.9 FP), Alex Gordon (9.2 FP), Michael Brantley (12.4 FP), and Lorenzo Cain (10 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Cruz but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.7 FPs, a value reached in 61 of 158 games (39%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 43%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: There are 3 other options at $4600 (Michael Brantley, Marcell Ozuna, Dwight Smith) and Cruz is the best option of these 4. Andrew McCutchen (8.7 FP), Mike Trout (9.7 FP), Christian Yelich (8.4 FP), J.D. Martinez (8.7 FP), and Charlie Blackmon (8.2 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Cruz but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 8 FPs, a value reached in 63 of 158 games (40%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 37%.

    Cruz is in the SportsLine Projection model FanDuel optimal lineup and DraftKings optimal lineup. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has used his own proprietary model to successfully win over $1 Million in Daily Fantasy. His lineups often differ significantly from the SportsLine Projection model.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 4 fantasy weeks he had one where he was +50% above his weekly average of 13.1 fantasy points. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 13 FD points and 11.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 24 and on FanDuel it was 31.2 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    Career Stats
    YEARTEAMGABRHHRRBIBBKOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
    2019MIN144681531281100.326.446.608
    2018SEA1445197013337975512210.256.341.508
    2017SEA15555691160391197014011.287.375.548
    2016SEA15558996169431056215920.286.359.555
    2015SEA1525909017844935916432.301.369.566
    2014BAL15961387166401085514045.270.333.525
    2013TEX1094134911027763510951.266.326.506
    2012TEX1595858615224904814084.259.319.459
    2011TEX1244756412529873311695.263.311.509
    2010TEX1083996012722783881174.318.373.576
    2009TEX12846275120337649118204.259.332.523
    2008TEX311151938726172831.330.421.608
    2007TEX963073572934218724.234.287.384
    2006TEX41130152962273210.223.260.384
    2005MIL8511002000.200.428.400
    Career (15 Seasons)158358048461595363102355914477631.274.342.519
    YEARTEAM2B3BTBSFSHHPIBGDP
    2019MIN402800212
    2018SEA1812643014515
    2017SEA2803057012715
    2016SEA271327709515
    2015SEA22133410596
    2014BAL322322505817
    2013TEX180209404214
    2012TEX45026940527
    2011TEX28124230218
    2010TEX313230611512
    2009TEX21124220269
    2008TEX917000121
    2007TEX15211811215
    2006TEX305010001
    2005MIL10200000
    Career (15 Seasons)3021330124426454127
    2019 Situational Stats
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    March3112410131300.462.727.364800111
    April9252620057800.424.320.240800101
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Home9284820155800.412.464.2861300112
    Away380210033300.500.375.250300100
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Day8243610135900.419.417.2501000211
    Night4121420053200.467.500.333600001
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    vs. Clev.3112410131300.462.727.364800111
    vs. Det.261200002300.500.333.333200000
    vs. K.C.270210033200.545.429.286300100
    vs. Phil.110000000100.000.000.000000000
    vs. Tor.4111210022200.308.273.182300001
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Kauffman Stadium270210033200.545.429.286300100
    Target Field9284820155800.412.464.2861300112
    Citizens Bank Park110000000100.000.000.000000000
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    vs. Lefthanded Pitcher430100001100.600.333.333100110
    vs. Righthanded Pitcher123349301871000.415.455.2731500102
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Grass1236410301881100.435.444.2781600212
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Pre All-Star1236410301881100.435.444.2781600212
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    RISP8113520064300.625.636.455700111
    RISP w/Two out641210032200.667.750.500300010
    Runners on Base10224820184500.481.591.3641300112
    Bases Empty11140210004600.368.214.143300100
    Bases Loaded110000000100.000.000.000000000
    Late Inning Pressure751200014100.727.400.400200210
    LIP-Runners On421100012000.800.500.500100110
    with 0 outs11121410144200.529.667.333800101
    with 1 out982200012200.455.250.250200101
    with 2 outs11161420032700.333.375.250600010
    Leading Off640100002200.500.250.250100000
    1st Inning10101310010300.300.400.300400001
    >= 7th Inning11101200014500.500.200.200200210
    Extra Innings1101000100001.0001.0001.000100000
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Lineup Slot 31035410301871000.432.457.2861600212
    Lineup Slot 6210000001100.500.000.000000000
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Designated Hitter1035410301871000.432.457.2861600212
    Pinch Hitter210000001100.500.000.000000000
    2019 Game Log
    MARCH
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    03/28vsW2-0411000002000.250.250.250
    03/30vsL2-1200000110000.167.167.250
    03/31vsW9-3513101201000.364.727.385
    APRIL
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    04/02@W5-4502100311000.375.688.400
    04/03@W7-6200000021000.333.611.385
    04/07@L2-1100000001000.316.579.370
    04/13vsW4-3200000022000.286.524.364
    04/14vsW6-4412000001000.320.520.378
    04/15vsL5-3400000001000.276.448.341
    04/16vsL6-5000000010000.276.448.349
    04/17vsW4-1312100210000.313.500.375
    04/18vsL7-4400000001000.278.444.346
    04/20@W6-51045102400000.326.609.371
    Past Projections
  • 20 Apr 2019

    Nelson Cruz's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

    Nelson Cruz's Rest of Season Value is Surprising
  • 19 Apr 2019

    Nelson Cruz Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations

    Nelson Cruz Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations
  • 18 Apr 2019

    Nelson Cruz Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

    Nelson Cruz Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?
  • 17 Apr 2019

    Nelson Cruz Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations

    Nelson Cruz Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations