SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE
Vladito had a solid rookie season, slashing .272/.339/.433 with 15 HRs, but he is so talented that those numbers seem like the floor. In the second half of last season, Vlad Jr. hit .293 with a .801 OPS. Reminder, he did that at just 20 years of age. Based on our sims, Vlad Jr. is expected to hit .286 with 22 Home Runs and 116 Ks to 55 BBS. Over his last three seasons in the minors, he had more walks than strikeouts and should walk a ton more this year as he adapts to MLB pitching. .300 with 30 HRs is a realistic season for the generational prospect.
DRAFT ADVICE AND POSITION RANK
Draft Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a weekly fantasy starter in 2019-2020. His 460.81 projected fantasy points puts him at #13 behind Justin Turner and ahead of Manny Machado. He has averaged 2.65 fantasy points in his past 123 games, which is less than our projected per game average. He is projected to average 3.06 fantasy points. His rank based on avg proj (#22) is worse than his rank based on total fantasy points. He is slightly overrated if you compare his ownership based rank with his projection rank. At 97%, he is the #12 most highly owned third baseman. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is expected to improve on last season's #22 fantasy position rank.
VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR. WEEK 1 AND 2 FANTASY OUTLOOK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected for 11.16 fantasy points in 4 games the rest of the week which is good enough to be the #9 ranked third baseman and a must start for most owners. This is projected to be a better than average week with more fantasy points per game than he is projected to average per game the rest of the season. He is ranked above Eduardo Escobar but behind Matt Chapman the rest of the week. Week 2 will not be as good based on projected rank (#19). He is projected for 16.54 fantasy points.
FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS
The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Below the projection are actual stats from last season.