headshot
Max
Kepler
College None
Team Minnesota Twins
26RF
6'4"Height
205Weight
26Age
5Exp
L/LBats/Throws
Max Kepler's Fantasy Scouting Report

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Our projections run counter to general expectations. Max Kepler is projected to be a top tier fantasy outfielder. Ranking by ownership percentage (71%), Max Kepler is expected to be the #47 outfielder for the rest of the season. The projections have him 28 spots higher in the rankings. Even as an established quality fantasy option, if he lives up to projections he is still undervalued and there could be an opportunity to buy 'low'. Unless someone offers an even better outfielder value, we advise you to hold on to him. He is projected for more FPs than A.J. Pollock who has virtually the same market rank (71% Owned) as Kepler. He is projected for 306 fantasy points in 96 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #13 highest average. The market ranks Max Kepler behind Eaton and above Pollock but the projections rank Max Kepler over Eaton.

Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

He has more relative weaknesses than strengths which hurts his value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Max Kepler is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #47 while his projection rank (rest of week 9) is #10. In week 10 rankings vs other outfielders instead of Kepler consider these better options at lower start percentages: Hunter Pence (16.2 FP), Cameron Maybin (14.2 FP), Avisail Garcia (14.7 FP), Joc Pederson (15.8 FP), and Kole Calhoun (17.7 FP). He is projected for more points than 3 other outfielders starting in more leagues: Nick Markakis (13.5 FP), Byron Buxton (11.8 FP), and Franmil Reyes (13.8 FP). Starting in 58% of leagues he is expected to produce 15.7 fantasy points (WK 10). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #39 outfielder of the week, but he is projected to be the #57 outfielder. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 1.8 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 2.7 which is less than his actual per game average (3.5).

He is projected for 13.9 fantasy points in week 10 (#57 OF) in 5 games.


  • Based on 5/24 start percentages, Max Kepler is valued behind Mazara and above Myers but the projections rank Max Kepler over Mazara in week 10.
  • Max Kepler last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (5/24): Max Kepler is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 10.6 FD pts (#26 among outfielders). At $3600 he is expected to be the #31 outfielder. Based on 5/24 salaries and projected points per dollar, Kepler is worth $3.7K. There are many other options (10) at $3600 and Kepler is ranked #4 among the 11. These are 4 better options at lower salaries: Wil Myers (10.9 FP), Joc Pederson (10.7 FP), Victor Robles (11 FP), and Steve Wilkerson (10.8 FP). Hunter Pence (9.3 FP), Michael Brantley (8.7 FP), Gregory Polanco (9 FP), David Peralta (8.3 FP), and Ketel Marte (10.5 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Kepler but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 10.2 FPs, a value reached in 69 of 200 games (34%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 44%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Projected for 7.8 DraftKings pts Max Kepler is the #26 ranked outfielder. At $4500 he is expected to be the #29 outfielder. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $4.6K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). There are 4 other options at $4500 (Shin-Soo Choo, Lorenzo Cain, Brett Gardner, Mitch Haniger) and Kepler is ranked #4 among the 5. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Nelson Cruz (8.9 FP), Alex Gordon (8.7 FP), Aaron Hicks (8.2 FP), Thomas Pham (8.1 FP), and Khris Davis (8.5 FP). Ian Desmond (7.4 FP), Hunter Pence (6.9 FP), Ryan Braun (7.7 FP), Jarrod Dyson (1.7 FP), and Avisail Garcia (6.1 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Kepler but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.7 FPs, a value reached in 72 of 200 games (36%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

    Kepler is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 9 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 16.9 FPs in 2 of them. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 10.8 FD points and 8.6 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 16 and on FanDuel it was 21.7 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and an equal number of good and bad games on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    Career Stats
    YEARTEAMGABRHHRRBIBBKOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
    2019MIN4417331451025202813.260.338.491
    2018MIN156532801192058719645.223.319.407
    2017MIN1475116712419694711461.242.312.424
    2016MIN11339652931763429362.234.309.424
    2015MIN3701000300.142.142.142
    Career (6 Seasons)4631619230382662151803341711.235.316.425
    YEARTEAM2B3BTBSFSHHPIBGDP
    2019MIN1008530202
    2018MIN30421730528
    2017MIN32221731625
    2016MIN20216851332
    2015MIN00100000
    Career (6 Seasons)92868814216717
    2019 Situational Stats
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    March3110100001200.167.091.091100000
    April2079152450716101602.378.633.3045010002
    May20781217402781001.300.346.2182720200
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Home22801216505991001.280.450.2003630102
    Away2188152640414101802.374.477.2954200100
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Day17688132051061201.250.441.1913020001
    Night26100192970413131602.379.480.2904810201
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    vs. Balt.3125610460100.4621.583.5001910000
    vs. Clev.3110100001200.167.091.091100000
    vs. Det.6253410122200.214.320.160810001
    vs. Hou.7243520034400.310.292.208710000
    vs. K.C.291300022301.455.333.333300000
    vs. LA-AL5163510003101.450.375.313600100
    vs. NY-NL2100310020201.300.400.300400000
    vs. NY-AL3100100002300.250.100.100100000
    vs. Phil.3143500340300.3571.000.3571400000
    vs. Sea.3134410141300.400.615.308800100
    vs. Tor.6245520004400.321.292.208700001
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Angel Stadium of Anaheim282410002100.600.625.500500000
    Kauffman Stadium291300022301.455.333.333300000
    Target Field22801216505991001.280.450.2003630102
    T-Mobile Park3134410141300.400.615.308800100
    Citi Field2100310020201.300.400.300400000
    Rogers Centre3143410001100.333.357.286500000
    Citizens Bank Park3143500340300.3571.000.3571400000
    Yankee Stadium3100100002300.250.100.100100000
    Minute Maid Park3102200022200.333.200.200200000
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    vs. Lefthanded Pitcher24402910182600.256.325.2251310001
    vs. Righthanded Pitcher42128253380815172203.349.508.2586520201
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Turf3143410001100.333.357.286500000
    Grass40154243880923182703.328.474.2477330202
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Pre All-Star43168274290923192803.328.464.2507830202
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    RISP3834158000124400.310.235.235830100
    RISP w/Two out21167500072100.421.313.313500100
    Runners on Base41562014102166603.318.375.2502130102
    Bases Empty421127288077132200.333.509.2505700100
    Bases Loaded1044100020000.200.250.250110000
    Late Inning Pressure13170500030400.294.294.294500000
    LIP-Runners On10110300030400.273.273.273300000
    with 0 outs4384821505871500.315.488.2504100102
    with 1 out32357840155701.302.429.2291530000
    with 2 outs35491213003107602.368.449.2652200100
    Leading Off3962315303361200.309.435.2422700000
    1st Inning36316820234700.333.516.2581610000
    >= 7th Inning405141110263800.259.353.2161800000
    Extra Innings110000000100.000.000.000000000
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Lineup Slot 135140253680918172503.342.507.2577120202
    Lineup Slot 65212410041200.217.238.190510000
    Lineup Slot 7240100001000.400.250.250100000
    Lineup Slot 8130100010100.333.333.333100000
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Playing OF43167274290923192803.330.467.2517830202
    Pinch Hitter110000000000.000.000.000000000
    2019 Game Log
    MARCH
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    03/28vsW2-0400000000000.000.000.000
    03/30vsL2-1400000002000.000.000.000
    03/31vsW9-3301000010000.091.091.154
    APRIL
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    04/02@W5-4412000021010.200.200.286
    04/03@W7-6501000202000.200.200.269
    04/05@L10-4511001202000.200.320.258
    04/06@W6-2512001100000.233.433.278
    04/07@L2-1412001101000.265.529.300
    04/09@W14-8601000101010.250.475.283
    04/10@L9-6402100101000.273.500.300
    04/13vsW4-3311000010000.277.489.309
    04/14vsW6-4511100001000.269.481.300
    04/16vsL6-5210000020000.259.463.303
    04/17vsW4-1411100002000.259.466.300
    04/18vsL7-4400000011000.242.435.289
    04/22@W9-5321000120000.246.431.301
    04/23@L10-4301000101000.250.426.302
    04/24@L7-1400000001000.236.403.289
    04/26vsW6-1412001100000.250.447.298
    04/27vsW9-2422002401000.263.525.306
    04/28vsW4-1422101100000.274.571.314
    04/29vsW1-0300000010000.264.552.308
    04/30vsL11-0302100011000.278.567.321
    MAY
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    05/01vsW6-2411100000000.277.564.319
    05/02vsW8-2400000101000.265.541.308
    05/03@L6-3400000001000.255.520.298
    05/04@W7-3301000010000.257.514.302
    05/05@L4-1300000012000.250.500.299
    05/06@W8-0400000001000.241.482.290
    05/07@W3-0512100000000.248.487.294
    05/08@W9-1522000010000.254.484.300
    05/10vsW6-0411001110000.254.500.301
    05/11vsL5-3901000101000.244.474.291
    05/12vsL5-3400000000000.237.460.284
    05/13vsL5-4100000000000.236.457.282
    05/14vsW4-3311000000000.238.455.283
    05/15vsW8-7400000010010.231.442.279
    05/16@W11-6421001102000.232.457.279
    05/17@W7-1402000300000.239.458.283
    05/18@W18-4521100011000.238.456.284
    05/20@W3-1402000011000.244.457.290
    05/21@W8-3422100010000.250.464.296
    05/23@W16-7543101210100.260.491.305
    Past Projections
  • 23 May 2019

    Max Kepler's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

    Max Kepler's Rest of Season Value is Surprising
  • 22 May 2019

    Max Kepler's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

    Max Kepler's Rest of Season Value is Surprising
  • 21 May 2019

    Max Kepler Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

    Max Kepler Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?
  • 20 May 2019

    Max Kepler Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

    Max Kepler Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?