2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD
Jon Lester is projected to be a must start starting pitcher next season. In our latest projection he is the #37 starting pitcher based on total projected fantasy points. In 2018, he was owned in 96 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 2.69 fantasy points per game in 33 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is down from where he finished last season.
SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND
Jon Lester was the number #29 ranked SP. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (33). Based on average fantasy points he is the #37 SP. We split his 33 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). He showed improvement from his start of the season to the middle of his season, but then his production dropped off. In his middle 12 games he averaged 3.6 fantasy points which was higher than his start (2.8 FP) and his ending average (1.3 FP). A late season drop-off might be expected given his age. His fantasy production is more volatile that most players based on having a relatively high standard deviation. When he is good, he is really good but when he is off, he is really off. He averaged 2.6 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 18 fantasy points.
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STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST SEASON
Lester may be getting older but he did get better this season. His fantasy average improved by 73%.
WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP
He has averaged 3.3 fantasy points per week and had 15 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 9 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.
DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP
He averaged 27.3 FD points and 15 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was -4.3 and on FanDuel it was -12 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 26.7 and 46 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and an equal number of good and bad games on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.