Gregory Polanco's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

REST OF SEASON VALUE

The projections say that Gregory Polanco is an elite fantasy outfielder worth starting most weeks. Ranking by ownership percentage (80%), Gregory Polanco is expected to be the #42 outfielder for the rest of the season. He is projected to be the #24 outfielder. Even as an established quality fantasy option, if he lives up to projections he is still undervalued and there could be an opportunity to buy 'low'. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better outfielder option available. Of the 4 outfielders (Justin Upton, Stephen Piscotty, Dwight Smith) with this market rank (80% Owned), he is the top rated one. He is projected for 292 fantasy points in 104 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#53) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Gregory Polanco behind Pederson and above Smith but the projections rank Gregory Polanco over Pederson.

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Lower Own%G. Polanco ROSHigher Own%
D. Dietrich (312 FP)292 FPA. Jones (251 FP)
M. Kepler (302 FP)#42 OutfieldR. Braun (262 FP)
 
 
L. Cain (276 FP)
 
 
A. McCutchen (289 FP)
 
 
S. Marte (287 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
292 (#24) 
Avg 
 
0.254 (#77)
OPS 
 
0.799 (#45)
Home Runs 
18 (#23) 
Runs 
 
54 (#43)
RBI 
 
51 (#40)
Stolen Bases 
 
7 (#46)
Strikeouts 
 
94 (#101)

He has more relative weaknesses than strengths which hurts his value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among outfielders for the rest of week 9 is #33, which is better than his market rank of #42. When compared to other outfielders in week 10 instead of Polanco consider these better options at lower start percentages: Derek Dietrich (20.9 FP) and Nomar Mazara (20 FP). Adam Jones (16.2 FP), Nick Markakis (13.6 FP), Ryan Braun (15.9 FP), Michael Brantley (15.7 FP), and Lorenzo Cain (16.7 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Polanco but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 63% of leagues he is expected to produce 16.3 fantasy points (WK 10). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #33 outfielder of week 10. He is projected to be better than that (the #9 outfielder). Even though his per game projected FP average is not better than normal, he will benefit from playing a projected 7 games.

Lower Start%G. Polanco WK 10Higher Start%
D. Dietrich (21 FP)20 FPA. Jones (16 FP)
N. Mazara (20 FP)#33 OutfieldN. Markakis (14 FP)
 
 
R. Braun (16 FP)
 
 
M. Brantley (16 FP)
 
 
L. Cain (17 FP)

He is projected for 19.8 fantasy points in week 10 (#9 OF) in 7 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
19.75 (#9) 
Avg 
 
0.253 (#72)
OPS 
 
0.705 (#52)
Home Runs 
1.21 (#12) 
Runs 
 
3.64 (#19)
RBI 
 
3.48 (#18)
Stolen Bases 
 
0.47 (#37)

  • Based on 5/23 start percentages, Gregory Polanco is valued behind Braun and above Dahl but the projections rank Gregory Polanco over Braun in week 10.
  • May 27May 27May 28May 29May 30May 31Jun 1Jun 2
    2.4 FP @CIN2.4 FP @CIN2.7 FP @CIN3.1 FP @CIN2.5 FP vs MIL2.4 FP vs MIL1.8 FP vs MIL2.4 FP vs MIL

    Gregory Polanco last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/22 vs COL2 FP, 9 FD, 7 DK1-3, 1 R, 1 BB
    5/19 @SD0 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-4, 1 BB
    5/18 @SD5 FP, 19 FD, 14 DK1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R
    5/17 @SD2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-1, 1 R
    5/16 @SD6 FP, 19 FD, 14 DK1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (5/23): Projected for 11.2 FanDuel pts Gregory Polanco is the #9 ranked outfielder. At $3800 he is expected to be the #11 outfielder. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Polanco is worth $3.8K. Juan Soto is also priced at $3800, and Polanco is a better option at this price. Instead of Polanco consider these better options at lower salaries: Aaron Hicks (11.7 FP), Starling Marte (11.4 FP), and Thomas Pham (11.7 FP). He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: Michael Brantley (11.2 FP) and Bryce Harper (10.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 11.2 FPs, a value reached in 66 of 152 games (43%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 45%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: There are 2 other options at $4900 (Avisail Garcia, Michael Conforto) and Polanco is the best option of these 3. Instead of Polanco consider these better options at lower salaries: Aaron Hicks (8.5 FP), Starling Marte (8.8 FP), and Thomas Pham (8.8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.7 FPs, a value reached in 65 of 152 games (43%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 37%.

    Polanco is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 5 fantasy weeks he had one where he was +50% above his weekly average of 13.9 fantasy points. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL13.9 FP per Week11
    Week 58.5 (6 games 1.4 per game)
    Week 69.5 (4 games 2.4 per game)
    Week 734.5 (5 games 6.9 per game)+20.6
    Week 814.5 (6 games 2.4 per game)
    Week 92.5 (1 games)-11.4

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 11 points and on DraftKings it was 9.2 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 0 and on FanDuel it was 3 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 14 and 18.7 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), but on DraftKings he has had more good than bad games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All11 ($3.3K)6 G, 7 B9.2 ($4.3K)6 G, 5 B
    5/22 COL9.2 ($3.8K)--7 ($4.6K)--
    5/19 @SD3 ($4K)-82-7.2
    5/18 @SD18.7 ($3.9K)+7.714 ($4.7K)+4.8
    5/17 @SD6.2 ($3.8K)--5 ($4.4K)--
    5/16 @SD18.7 ($3.8K)+7.714 ($4.9K)+4.8
    5/15 @ARI3 ($3.8K)-82 ($4.6K)-7.2
    5/14 @ARI6.2 ($3.8K)--5 ($4.5K)--
    5/12 @STL18.6 ($3.5K)+7.614 ($4.2K)+4.8
    5/11 @STL15.7 ($3.5K)--12 ($4.2K)--
    5/9 @STL40.7 ($3.1K)+29.730 ($3.7K)+20.8
    5/8 TEX10 ($2.9K)--7--
    5/7 TEX25.2 ($2.8K)+14.219 ($4.2K)+9.8
    5/5 OAK0 ($2.8K)-110 ($4.1K)-9.2
    5/4 OAK12.2 ($2.8K)--10 ($4.2K)--
    5/1 @TEX15.7 ($3K)--11 ($4.3K)--
    4/30 @TEX6 ($2.8K)--5 ($4.5K)--
    4/28 @LAD3 ($3K)-82-7.2
    4/27 @LAD3 ($3K)-83 ($3.8K)-6.2
    4/26 @LAD3 ($3.4K)-83 ($4.2K)-6.2
    4/25 ARI0 ($3.5K)-110 ($3.8K)-9.2
    4/23 ARI6 ($2.9K)--6 ($4.5K)--
    4/22 ARI18.4 ($2.9K)+7.414 ($4.5K)+4.8