Dwight Smith's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Our projections run counter to general expectations. Dwight Smith is projected to be a top tier fantasy outfielder. Ranking by ownership percentage (80%), Dwight Smith is expected to be the #43 outfielder for the rest of the season. The projections have him 17 spots higher in the rankings. Even if he is owned in plenty of leagues, he is still undervalued and if you act quickly there is a clear buy low opportunity. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better outfielder option available. There are other outfielders with virtually the same market rank (Justin Upton, Gregory Polanco 80% Owned) and Smith ranks #2 out of 3. He is projected for 290 fantasy points in 104 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#56) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Dwight Smith behind Polanco and above Upton and the projections agree.

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Lower Own%D. Smith ROSHigher Own%
D. Dietrich (315 FP)290 FPA. Jones (250 FP)
M. Kepler (306 FP)#43 OutfieldR. Braun (262 FP)
 
 
L. Cain (276 FP)
 
 
A. Hicks (288 FP)
 
 
W. Myers (244 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
290 (#26) 
Avg 
 
0.259 (#67)
OPS 
 
0.778 (#62)
Home Runs 
18 (#23) 
Runs 
 
57 (#35)
RBI60 (#14) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
5 (#62)
Strikeouts 
 
101 (#125)

He has more relative weaknesses than strengths which hurts his value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Dwight Smith is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #43 while his projection rank (rest of week 9) is #17. Week 10 outfielders comparisons show these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Kole Calhoun (17.7 FP), Yasiel Puig (17.8 FP), Derek Dietrich (21.2 FP), Nomar Mazara (19.8 FP), and Jesse Winker (17.8 FP). Adam Jones (16.4 FP), Nick Markakis (13.5 FP), Michael Brantley (15.7 FP), Lorenzo Cain (16.4 FP), and Andrew McCutchen (15.3 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Smith but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 64% of leagues he is expected to produce 16.2 fantasy points (WK 10). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #34 outfielder of week 10. He is projected to be better than that (the #20 outfielder). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 6 games.

Lower Start%D. Smith WK 10Higher Start%
K. Calhoun (18 FP)18 FPA. Jones (16 FP)
Y. Puig (18 FP)#34 OutfieldN. Markakis (14 FP)
D. Dietrich (21 FP) 
M. Brantley (16 FP)
N. Mazara (20 FP) 
L. Cain (16 FP)
J. Winker (18 FP) 
A. McCutchen (15 FP)

He is projected for 17.6 fantasy points in week 10 (#20 OF) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
17.63 (#20) 
Avg 
0.285 (#24) 
OPS 
0.785 (#15) 
Home Runs 
1.03 (#27) 
Runs 
3.5 (#24) 
RBI 
3.68 (#13) 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.29 (#61)

  • Based on 5/24 start percentages, Dwight Smith is valued behind Dahl and above Ohtani but the projections rank Dwight Smith over Dahl in week 10.
  • May 27May 28May 29May 31Jun 1Jun 2
    2.8 FP vs DET2.8 FP vs DET3.6 FP vs DET2.6 FP vs SF3 FP vs SF2.9 FP vs SF

    Dwight Smith last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/23 vs NYY3 FP, 9 FD, 8 DK1-4
    5/22 vs NYY1 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-0
    5/21 vs NYY0 FP, 3 FD, 3 DK1-4
    5/20 vs NYY7 FP, 22 FD, 18 DK3-5, 1 RBI, 1 R
    5/19 @CLE-2 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (5/24): There are 3 other options at $4900 (Hunter Pence, Michael Conforto, Raimel Tapia) and Smith is the best option of these 4. Shin-Soo Choo (9.6 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Ryan Braun (7.7 FP), Jarrod Dyson (1.7 FP), Joc Pederson (7.9 FP), George Springer (8.3 FP), and Mookie Betts (8.2 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Smith but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.4 FPs, a value reached in 25 of 82 games (30%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 12.4 FanDuel pts Dwight Smith is the #9 ranked outfielder. At $3900 he is expected to be the #19 outfielder. Based on the projection, Smith is worth $4.4K. There are 3 other options at $3900 (Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley, Gregory Polanco) and Smith is ranked #2 among the 4. Hunter Pence (9.3 FP), Bryce Harper (12.2 FP), George Springer (11.2 FP), Marcell Ozuna (11.5 FP), and Mookie Betts (10.7 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Smith but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 11 FPs, a value reached in 25 of 82 games (30%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 44%.

    Smith is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 9 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 15.1 FPs in 2 of them. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL15.1 FP per Week21
    Week 110 (3 games 3.3 per game)
    Week 28 (6 games 1.3 per game)
    Week 323 (6 games 3.8 per game)+7.9
    Week 429.5 (6 games 4.9 per game)+14.4
    Week 513 (5 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 620.5 (5 games 4.1 per game)
    Week 720 (6 games 3.3 per game)
    Week 81 (6 games 0.2 per game)-14.1
    Week 910.5 (3 games 3.5 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 10.9 FD points and 7.5 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 16 and 25.7 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All10.9 ($3.2K)11 G, 14 B7.5 ($4.4K)10 G, 14 B
    5/23 NYY9 ($3.4K)--8 ($4.4K)--
    5/21 NYY3 ($3.1K)-7.93 ($4.2K)-4.5
    5/20 NYY21.7 ($3.2K)+10.818 ($4.5K)+10.5
    5/19 @CLE0 ($3.3K)-10.90 ($4.7K)-7.5
    5/18 @CLE0 ($3.5K)-10.90 ($5K)-7.5
    5/17 @CLE6 ($3.2K)--5 ($4.8K)--
    5/16 @CLE9.2 ($3.5K)--8 ($4.5K)--
    5/15 @NYY0 ($3.6K)-10.90 ($4.9K)-7.5
    5/15 @NYY0 ($3.6K)-10.90 ($4.9K)-7.5
    5/12 LAA28.2 ($3.5K)+17.321 ($4.3K)+13.5
    5/11 LAA25.2 ($3.5K)+14.319 ($4.9K)+11.5
    5/10 LAA0 ($3.4K)-10.90 ($4.8K)-7.5
    5/8 BOS0 ($3.3K)-10.90 ($4.5K)-7.5
    5/7 BOS18.9 ($3.6K)+814 ($4.8K)+6.5
    5/6 BOS0 ($3.5K)-10.90 ($4.9K)-7.5
    5/4 TB18.7 ($3.4K)+7.814 ($4.7K)+6.5
    5/3 TB6 ($3.3K)--6 ($4.6K)--
    5/1 @CHW15.5 ($3.3K)--13 ($4.7K)+5.5
    5/1 @CHW15.7 ($3.3K)--11 ($4.7K)--
    4/29 @CHW12.4 ($3.6K)--10 ($4.7K)--
    4/28 @MIN0 ($3.9K)-10.90 ($4.8K)-7.5
    4/27 @MIN0 ($3.8K)-10.90 ($4.6K)-7.5
    4/26 @MIN12.5 ($3.7K)--9 ($4.7K)--
    4/24 CHW9.2 ($3.8K)--7 ($4.7K)--
    4/23 CHW25.7 ($3.8K)+14.818 ($4.9K)+10.5
    4/21 MIN10--7--
    4/20 MIN28.2 ($3.6K)+17.321 ($4.4K)+13.5
    4/18 @TB12.7 ($3.6K)--9 ($4.2K)--
    4/17 @TB6 ($3.6K)--5 ($4.2K)--
    4/16 @TB15.2 ($3.2K)--11 ($3.6K)--
    4/15 @BOS35.2 ($3.1K)+24.325+17.5
    4/14 @BOS0 ($2.5K)-10.90 ($3.7K)-7.5
    4/13 @BOS15.4 ($2.5K)--10--
    4/12 @BOS22.2 ($2.2K)+11.316 ($3.5K)+8.5
    4/11 OAK31.2 ($2.6K)+20.323+15.5
    4/10 OAK0 ($2.5K)-10.90 ($3.6K)-7.5
    4/9 OAK15.2 ($2.8K)--11 ($3.9K)--
    4/7 NYY0 ($2.9K)-10.90 ($3.7K)-7.5
    4/6 NYY3 ($2.7K)-7.93 ($3.7K)-4.5
    4/4 NYY9.2 ($2.8K)--7--
    4/3 @TOR6.2 ($3K)--5--
    4/2 @TOR6.2 ($2.8K)--5 ($3.6K)--
    4/1 @TOR6.2 ($2.4K)--5 ($3.6K)--
    3/31 @NYY18.7 ($2.3K)+7.814 ($3.3K)+6.5
    3/30 @NYY15.5 ($2.3K)--11--
    3/28 @NYY6.2 ($2.1K)--5--