Stevenson DraftKings Projection Provides Play and Fade Advice

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 2.4 DraftKings pts Andrew Stevenson is the #105 ranked outfielder. He is the #127 highest priced outfielder ($3000). Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Stevenson is worth $1.3K. There are 6 other options at $3000 (Dalton Pompey, Manuel Margot, JaCoby Jones, Harold Ramirez, Noel Cuevas, Scott Heineman) and Stevenson is ranked #4 among the 7. These are 3 better options at lower salaries: Aaron Altherr (4.7 FP), Rosell Herrera (4.2 FP), and Josh VanMeter (2.4 FP). He is projected for more points than 4 higher priced options: Jarrod Dyson (1.8 FP), Guillermo Heredia (1.9 FP), Austin Dean (2.2 FP), and Lane Thomas (2.2 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 4 FPs, a value reached in 13 of 65 games (20%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 37%.

  • 5/25 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: WAS 4.8 (#9 Most Today) vs MIA 3.7 (#29 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 2.38 Fantasy Points (#103), 1.27 plate appearances (#105), 0.268 BA (#40), 0.798 OPS (#45), 0.04 HR (#99), 0.16 RBI (#103), 0.18 runs (#102), 0.02 stolen bases (#85),
Lower SalaryA. StevensonHigher Salary
A. Altherr (5 FP)2.4 FPJ. Dyson (1.8 FP)
R. Herrera (4 FP)#127 OutfieldG. Heredia (1.9 FP)
J. VanMeter (0 FP) 
A. Dean (2.2 FP)
 
 
L. Thomas (0 FP)

FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 3.2 FanDuel pts Andrew Stevenson is the #123 ranked outfielder. He is the #140 highest priced outfielder ($2000). Based on the projection, Stevenson is worth $1.1K. There are many other options (21) at $2000 and Stevenson is ranked #9 among the 22. He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Jarrod Dyson (2.3 FP), Tony Kemp (2.7 FP), and Austin Dean (2.8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 2.3 FPs, a value reached in 27 of 65 games (42%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 42%.

Stevenson is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Based on start%, Zagunis is expected to produce more fantasy points than Andrew Stevenson and the projections validate that assessment. Andrew Stevenson should put up more fantasy points than Dickerson who is ranked 1 spot below him based on start%. He is starting in no leagues and with a projected outfielder rank of #123 in week 10 it makes sense.

He is projected for 4.9 fantasy points in week 10 (#123 OF) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
4.9 (#123) 
Avg0.259 (#56) 
 
OPS0.658 (#82) 
 
Home Runs 
0.23 (#120) 
Runs 
1.02 (#122) 
RBI 
0.95 (#122) 
Stolen Bases0.1 (#108) 
 

  • Based on 5/25 start percentages, Andrew Stevenson is valued behind Zagunis and above Dickerson and the projections agree for this week.
  • May 27May 28May 29May 31Jun 1Jun 2
    0.8 FP vs MIA0.8 FP @ATL0.8 FP @ATL0.9 FP @CIN0.7 FP @CIN0.8 FP @CIN

    Andrew Stevenson last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/6 @MIL0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    5/5 @PHI2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-3, 1 BB
    5/4 @PHI2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-3, 1 R
    4/6 @NYM0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    4/4 @NYM0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among outfielders is #135. Based on ownership percentage (under 1%) and season fantasy rankings, Andrew Stevenson has a market rank of #143 among outfielders. Andrew Stevenson's projection rank is better than their market rank. While there is value and likely a clear opportunity to acquire him via trade or waiver wire pick up it is probably not worth the roster spot at this time. Even though he is undervalued, he is not projected for more fantasy points than other outfielders with a better market ranking. He is projected for 91 fantasy points in 33 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #66 highest average. The market ranks Andrew Stevenson behind Herrera and above Dickerson and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    91 (#135) 
    Avg0.263 (#57) 
     
    OPS0.787 (#57) 
     
    Home Runs5 (#117) 
     
    Runs 
    19 (#131) 
    RBI 
    17 (#134) 
    Stolen Bases2 (#112) 
     
    Strikeouts33 (#8) 
     

    His projected fantasy points is lower than you would like given his relatively strong OPS projection.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 4 fantasy weeks he had one where he was +50% above his weekly average of 1.5 fantasy points. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL1.5 FP per Week11
    Week 12 (1 games)
    Week 21 (4 games 0.2 per game)
    Week 63.5 (2 games 1.8 per game)+2
    Week 7-0.5 (1 games)-2

    FANDUEL SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 3.1 points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. His floor was 1000 fantasy points. His ceiling was -1000 fantasy points. He has had an equal number of good (20% above average) and bad games (20% below) on FanDuel.We are only including games where they were in the FanDuel slate and played.

    GameFanDuel PointsSalaryGood GameBad Game
    All3.1$2K33
    5/6 @MIL0--33
    5/5 @PHI6--$2K+2.93
    5/4 @PHI6.2--+2.93
    4/6 @NYM0--$2K+2.9-3.1
    4/4 @NYM0--$2K+2.9-3.1
    4/3 PHI6.2--$2K+3.1-3.1
    4/2 PHI0--$2K+3.1-3.1
    3/30 NYM6.2--$2K+3.1-3.1