Does McCutchen's Latest DraftKings Projection Justify His $4.2K Salary?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Andrew McCutchen is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 8.1 DK pts (#22 among outfielders). At $4200 he is expected to be the #46 outfielder. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $4.7K. There are 7 other options at $4200 (Nelson Cruz, Lorenzo Cain, Starling Marte, Khris Davis, Domingo Santana, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes) and McCutchen is ranked #2 among the 8. Instead of McCutchen consider these better options at lower salaries: Yasiel Puig (9 FP), Jesse Winker (8.3 FP), and Victor Robles (8.2 FP). Adam Jones (6.2 FP), Ian Desmond (6.6 FP), Hunter Pence (6.4 FP), Michael Brantley (6.9 FP), and Brett Gardner (7 FP) are all projected for fewer points than McCutchen but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.2 FPs, a value reached in 89 of 216 games (41%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

  • 6/1 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: PHI 3.8 (#27 Most Today) vs LAD 4.7 (#16 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 8.15 Fantasy Points (#20), 4.24 plate appearances (#10), 0.279 BA (#29), 0.821 OPS (#34), 0.16 HR (#27), 0.53 RBI (#27), 0.55 runs (#33), 0.06 stolen bases (#40),
Lower SalaryA. McCutchenHigher Salary
Y. Puig (9 FP)8 FPA. Jones (6 FP)
J. Winker (8 FP)#46 OutfieldI. Desmond (7 FP)
V. Robles (8 FP) 
H. Pence (6 FP)
 
 
M. Brantley (7 FP)
 
 
B. Gardner (7 FP)

FANDUEL VALUE: Andrew McCutchen is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 10.7 FD pts (#25 among outfielders). He is the #28 highest priced outfielder ($3700). Based on 6/1 salaries and projected points per dollar, McCutchen is worth $3.7K. There are 6 other options at $3700 (Ian Desmond, Justin Upton, Joc Pederson, Khris Davis, David Peralta, Andrew Benintendi) and McCutchen is ranked #2 among the 7. Instead of McCutchen consider these better options at lower salaries: Alex Gordon (11.6 FP), Ryan Braun (12.3 FP), Lorenzo Cain (12.1 FP), Kole Calhoun (11.8 FP), and Yasiel Puig (12 FP). Hunter Pence (8.7 FP), Michael Brantley (8.8 FP), Bryce Harper (9.6 FP), Marcell Ozuna (10 FP), and Max Kepler (10.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than McCutchen but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 10.6 FPs, a value reached in 86 of 216 games (40%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 44%.

McCutchen is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Andrew McCutchen is someone to keep in the lineup and he is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #19 while his projection rank for the rest of week 10 is #13. When compared to other outfielders in week 11 these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Nick Markakis (17.1 FP), Aaron Hicks (17.4 FP), Charlie Blackmon (20.5 FP), Jake Marisnick (17.2 FP), and Thomas Pham (21.8 FP). Starting in 93% of leagues he is expected to produce 18.2 fantasy points (WK 11). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #15 outfielder of the week, but he is projected to be the #29 outfielder. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 2.2 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 3 which is less than his actual per game average (3.4).

Lower Start%A. McCutchen WK 11Higher Start%
N. Markakis (17 FP)16 FPB. Harper (16 FP)
A. Hicks (17 FP)#15 Outfield 
C. Blackmon (20 FP) 
 
J. Marisnick (17 FP) 
 
T. Pham (22 FP) 
 

He is projected for 16 fantasy points in week 11 (#29 OF) in 5 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
16.02 (#29) 
Avg 
 
0.261 (#66)
OPS 
 
0.692 (#77)
Home Runs 
 
0.9 (#40)
Runs3.59 (#19) 
 
RBI 
 
2.76 (#47)
Stolen Bases 
 
0.31 (#62)

  • Based on 6/1 start percentages, Andrew McCutchen is valued behind Benintendi and above Marte but the projections rank Andrew McCutchen over Benintendi in week 11.
  • Jun 3Jun 4Jun 5Jun 7Jun 8Jun 9
    3.1 FP @SD2.2 FP @SD3.1 FP @SD2.7 FP vs CIN2.3 FP vs CIN2.6 FP vs CIN

    Andrew McCutchen last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/31 @LAD5 FP, 19 FD, 14 DK1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R
    5/30 vs STL4 FP, 12 FD, 9 DK1-4, 2 R, 1 BB
    5/29 vs STL13 FP, 41 FD, 28 DK1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 4 R, 3 BB
    5/28 vs STL2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-4, 1 R
    5/26 @MIL-1 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Based on ownership percentage (99%), Andrew McCutchen has a market rank of #19 among outfielders. With a lower market rank than projection rank, consider Andrew McCutchen to be slightly undervalued. His fantasy outfielder projection rank is #17. There are other outfielders with virtually the same market rank (Starling Marte, Austin Meadows 99% Owned) and McCutchen ranks #2 out of 3. He is projected for 297 fantasy points in 95 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#19) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Andrew McCutchen behind Meadows and above Marte and the projections agree.

    Lower Own%A. McCutchen ROSHigher Own%
    D. Dietrich (310 FP)298 FPG. Springer (283 FP)
    M. Kepler (299 FP)#19 OutfieldA. Judge (268 FP)
     
     
    A. Benintendi (295 FP)
     
     
    M. Haniger (277 FP)
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    297 (#17) 
    Avg 
     
    0.264 (#60)
    OPS 
    0.843 (#24) 
    Home Runs 
    17 (#24) 
    Runs66 (#5) 
     
    RBI 
     
    50 (#31)
    Stolen Bases 
     
    6 (#49)
    Strikeouts 
     
    92 (#122)

    His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 10 fantasy weeks he had one where he was +50% above his weekly average of 18.9 fantasy points.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL18.9 FP per Week10
    Week 115 (3 games 5 per game)
    Week 216 (5 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 322 (6 games 3.7 per game)
    Week 422 (7 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 512 (7 games 1.7 per game)
    Week 611 (5 games 2.2 per game)
    Week 711.5 (5 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 822 (7 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 934 (7 games 4.9 per game)+15.1
    Week 1023.5 (4 games 5.9 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 12.2 FD points and 8.9 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 19 and 27.9 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All12.2 ($3.9K)13 G, 18 B8.9 ($4.4K)11 G, 14 B
    5/31 @LAD18.7 ($3.9K)+6.514 ($4.3K)+5.1
    5/30 STL12.4 ($3.8K)--9 ($4.7K)--
    5/29 STL40.8 ($3.8K)+28.628 ($4.8K)+19.1
    5/28 STL6.2 ($3.7K)--5 ($4.7K)--
    5/26 @MIL0 ($3.7K)-12.20 ($4.9K)-8.9
    5/25 @MIL21.7 ($3.8K)+9.516 ($5.1K)+7.1
    5/24 @MIL18.7 ($3.6K)+6.514 ($4.8K)+5.1
    5/23 @CHC28.4 ($3.5K)+16.220 ($4.2K)+11.1
    5/22 @CHC30.9 ($3.4K)+18.724 ($4K)+15.1
    5/21 @CHC10 ($3.5K)--7 ($4K)--
    5/20 @CHC15 ($3.4K)--10 ($3.8K)--
    5/19 COL16 ($3.6K)--12 ($4.4K)--
    5/18 COL0 ($3.5K)-12.20 ($4.1K)-8.9
    5/17 COL31.4 ($3.4K)+19.224 ($3.9K)+15.1
    5/16 MIL12.2 ($3.5K)--9 ($4K)--
    5/15 MIL6.5 ($3.7K)--5 ($4K)--
    5/14 MIL0 ($3.7K)-12.20 ($4.1K)-8.9
    5/13 MIL6 ($3.6K)-6.26 ($4.1K)--
    5/12 @KC15.2 ($3.9K)--11 ($4.2K)--
    5/11 @KC13.2 ($3.9K)--9 ($4.4K)--
    5/10 @KC0 ($3.8K)-12.20 ($4.5K)-8.9
    5/7 @STL9.2 ($3.7K)--6 ($4.4K)--
    5/6 @STL3 ($3.7K)-9.23 ($4.3K)-5.9
    5/5 WAS9.2 ($3.9K)--7 ($4.5K)--
    5/4 WAS9.5 ($3.9K)--7 ($4.3K)--
    5/3 WAS0 ($3.9K)-12.20 ($4.6K)-8.9
    5/1 DET12.5 ($3.9K)--11 ($4.5K)--
    4/30 DET15.2 ($4.2K)--10 ($4.5K)--
    4/28 MIA12.4 ($3.7K)--8 ($4.3K)--
    4/27 MIA27.9 ($3.8K)+15.720 ($4.3K)+11.1
    4/26 MIA0 ($3.6K)-12.20 ($4.5K)-8.9
    4/25 MIA6 ($3.6K)-6.25 ($4.6K)--
    4/24 @NYM3 ($4.4K)-9.23 ($4.5K)-5.9
    4/23 @NYM0 ($4.1K)-12.20 ($4.4K)-8.9
    4/22 @NYM0 ($3.9K)-12.20 ($4.6K)-8.9
    4/21 @COL6 ($4.5K)-6.26 ($4.7K)--
    4/20 @COL24.9 ($4.6K)+12.719 ($4.8K)+10.1
    4/19 @COL12.2 ($4.5K)--9 ($4.8K)--
    4/18 @COL0 ($4.7K)-12.20 ($5.4K)-8.9
    4/17 NYM0 ($4.3K)-12.20-8.9
    4/16 NYM15.4 ($4.1K)--12 ($4.6K)--
    4/15 NYM18.2 ($4.1K)--14 ($4K)+5.1
    4/14 @MIA12.2 ($3.8K)--10 ($4.2K)--
    4/13 @MIA12 ($3.7K)--9--
    4/12 @MIA37.9 ($3.8K)+25.728 ($4.3K)+19.1
    4/10 WAS6 ($3.7K)-6.24 ($4.3K)-4.9
    4/9 WAS9.2 ($3.7K)--7 ($4.1K)--
    4/8 WAS0 ($3.9K)-12.20 ($4.4K)-8.9
    4/7 MIN6.2 ($4.5K)--4 ($4.1K)-4.9
    4/6 MIN9 ($4.3K)--7--
    4/5 MIN15.4 ($4.2K)--11 ($4.3K)--
    4/3 @WAS19.7 ($4.2K)+7.513--
    4/2 @WAS12.2 ($4.1K)--10 ($3.8K)--
    3/31 ATL27.9 ($4.1K)+15.720+11.1
    3/30 ATL0 ($4K)-12.20-8.9
    3/28 ATL24.9 ($3.4K)+12.718+9.1