Justin Verlander Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Both the market and projections have virtually the same expectations for Justin Verlander. Ranking by ownership percentage (98%), Justin Verlander is expected to be the #1 starting pitcher for the rest of the season. Projections rank him #2. Of the 18 98% owned starting pitchers, he is ranked #2. He is projected for 149 fantasy points in 19 remaining games. His projected average FP rank is the same as his rest of season total rank. The market values Justin Verlander over Bauer and the projections agree.

Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
149 (#2) 
Wins11 (#1) 
 
Losses 
 
4 (#75)
Quality Starts17 (#1) 
 
Strikeouts149 (#2) 
 
Innings 
120 (#5) 
Walks 
 
24 (#116)
ERA 
 
2.92 (#13)
WHIP0.92 (#1) 
 

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among starting pitchers for the rest of week 12 is #5, which is less than his market rank of #1. Justin Verlander should put up more fantasy points than Bauer who is ranked 1 spot below him based on start%. Starting in 94% of leagues he is expected to produce 14.6 fantasy points (WK 13). Week 13 market expectations match his projection. He is expected to be the #1 starting pitcher (projected to be #1).

He is projected for 14.6 fantasy points in week 13 (#1 SP) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
14.65 (#1) 
Wins 
1.03 (#7) 
Losses 
 
0.46 (#120)
Quality Starts1.8 (#1) 
 
Strikeouts14.95 (#1) 
 
Innings13.26 (#1) 
 
Walks 
 
2.75 (#39)

  • Based on 6/12 start %s the market values Justin Verlander over Bauer and the projections agree.
  • Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23
    8.4 FP @CIN--------6.3 FP @NYY--

    Justin Verlander last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/6 @SEA5 FP, 35 FD, 19 DK6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 5 HA, 0 BBI, WIN
    6/1 @OAK15 FP, 55 FD, 32 DK8 IP, 1 ER, 8 K, 4 HA, 2 BBI
    5/26 vs BOS-1 FP, 34 FD, 18 DK7 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 6 HA, 0 BBI
    5/21 vs CHW21 FP, 67 FD, 43 DK8 IP, 1 ER, 12 K, 1 HA, 1 BBI, WIN
    5/15 @DET16 FP, 55 FD, 33 DK7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 HA, 2 BBI, WIN

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (6/12): Based on a projected 42.2 FanDuel points, Verlander is fairly ranked. At $11100 he is expected to be the #1 pitcher. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Verlander is worth $11.4K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 41.1 FPs, a value reached in 30 of 51 games (59%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 49%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Verlander is projected for 23.5 DraftKings points and is fairly ranked. At $11300 he is expected to be the #1 pitcher. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Verlander is worth $12.5K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 21.2 FPs, a value reached in 37 of 51 games (73%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 51%.

    Verlander is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 11 fantasy weeks he had one where he was +50% above his weekly average of 12.6 fantasy points. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL12.6 FP per Week12
    Week 114.5 (1 games)
    Week 2-8 (1 games)-20.6
    Week 318.5 (2 games 9.2 per game)
    Week 414 (1 games)
    Week 517 (1 games)
    Week 69.3 (2 games 4.7 per game)
    Week 717 (1 games)
    Week 816.5 (1 games)
    Week 920 (2 games 10 per game)+7.4
    Week 1015 (1 games)
    Week 114.8 (1 games)-7.8

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 45.6 points and on DraftKings it was 27.7 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 3 and on FanDuel it was 34 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On DraftKings it was 36.3 and on FanDuel it was 58 FPs. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average), and the same is true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All45.6 ($11.4K)0 G, 1 B27.7 ($11K)1 G, 1 B
    6/6 @SEA35 ($12K)--19.2--
    6/1 @OAK55 ($11.9K)--32.4 ($11.9K)--
    5/26 BOS34 ($11.7K)--18.2 ($11.2K)--
    5/21 CHW67 ($12K)--42.8 ($11.3K)+15.1
    5/15 @DET55 ($12K)--33.3 ($11K)--
    5/10 TEX55 ($11.3K)--33.3 ($11K)--
    5/5 @LAA34 ($11.4K)--20.6--
    4/29 @MIN40 ($11.3K)--23.1 ($10.8K)--
    4/24 MIN55 ($11K)--33.6 ($10.5K)--
    4/19 @TEX52 ($10.8K)--30.2 ($10.4K)--
    4/13 @SEA58 ($10.5K)--36.3 ($11.1K)--
    4/8 NYY31 ($10.7K)--14.1 ($10.4K)--
    4/2 @TEX12 ($11.3K)-33.63 ($11.5K)-24.7
    3/28 @TB55 ($11.4K)--32.2 ($11K)--