MLB World Series and League Futures: Astros at the Top of the AL

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There is a large 8.9% gap between AL leaders. The Houston Astros lead with a 32.9 percent chance of winning the AL and the Tampa Bay Rays are at 24.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Rays chances are down from 25.5 percent. While 1.73 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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Houston Astros106.699.6%99.9%7/4 (36.4%)32.9%
Tampa Bay Rays102.581.2%98.8%6/1 (14.3%)24.1%
Minnesota Twins102.696.0%98.9%3/1 (25%)20.4%
New York Yankees93.414.9%77.5%3/1 (25%)11.8%
Boston Red Sox90.83.9%50.5%7/1 (12.5%)6.9%
Cleveland Indians89.04.0%40.2%30/1 (3.2%)2.2%
Oakland Athletics85.40.2%16.8%40/1 (2.4%)1.0%
Texas Rangers84.30.2%15.5%25/1 (3.8%)0.7%
Los Angeles Angels78.40.1%2.0%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Chicago White Sox68.50.1%0.1%50/1 (2%)--
Seattle Mariners69.20.1%0.1%2500/1--
Kansas City Royals63.60.1%0.1%2500/1--
Baltimore Orioles58.10.1%0.1%2500/1--
Detroit Tigers57.00.1%0.1%2500/1--
Toronto Blue Jays55.70.1%0.1%2500/1--

There is a very large 25.3% gap between the Dodgers and the Cubs. The Chicago Cubs at 17.3% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 42.6%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Cubs chances are down from 23.5 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 1.99 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #4, #5 and #6 best NL record. There are 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the NL.

Los Angeles Dodgers106.199.3%100.0%5/4 (44.4%)42.6%
Chicago Cubs92.647.5%83.0%5/1 (16.7%)17.3%
Milwaukee Brewers92.648.0%83.7%6/1 (14.3%)15.0%
Atlanta Braves87.641.1%55.7%8/1 (11.1%)6.9%
Philadelphia Phillies85.629.0%43.9%7/1 (12.5%)6.0%
Washington Nationals85.622.1%34.0%20/1 (4.8%)4.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks86.50.5%41.3%40/1 (2.4%)3.7%
St Louis Cardinals83.84.4%23.7%10/1 (9.1%)1.5%
New York Mets81.07.7%13.6%40/1 (2.4%)1.4%
Colorado Rockies82.40.2%18.3%20/1 (4.8%)1.1%
San Diego Padres75.40.1%1.8%40/1 (2.4%)--
Cincinnati Reds73.70.1%0.8%150/1 (0.7%)--
Pittsburgh Pirates68.40.1%0.1%150/1 (0.7%)--
San Francisco Giants61.20.1%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Miami Marlins62.40.1%0.1%2500/1--

Using a level of having at least a two percent chance, there are 10 'contending' teams. This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At #2, the Astros have an 18 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 9 percentage points behind the Dodgers. The separation between the team with the #8 highest chances vs the #10 highest is 1.2 percentage points.

Los Angeles Dodgers7/222.2%26.7%UP
Houston Astros4/120.0%17.9%DOWN
Tampa Bay Rays12/17.7%11.8%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%8.6%DOWN
Minnesota Twins6/114.3%8.4%--
Milwaukee Brewers12/17.7%6.5%DOWN
New York Yankees6/114.3%5.5%DOWN
Boston Red Sox14/16.7%3.5%DOWN
Atlanta Braves16/15.9%2.6%UP
Philadelphia Phillies14/16.7%2.3%DOWN
Washington Nationals40/12.4%1.9%DOWN
Arizona Diamondbacks80/11.2%1.3%DOWN