MLB World Series and League Futures: Brewers In Top 10

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There is a large 7.3% gap between the Astros and the Rays. The Houston Astros lead with a 31.6 percent chance of winning the AL and the Tampa Bay Rays are at 24.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Rays chances are down from 25.7 percent. There is a 4.24 difference in projected win total between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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Houston Astros105.998.9%99.7%7/4 (36.4%)31.6%
Tampa Bay Rays100.874.0%97.0%6/1 (14.3%)24.3%
Minnesota Twins101.496.4%98.5%3/1 (25%)19.8%
New York Yankees94.019.0%78.5%3/1 (25%)12.1%
Boston Red Sox91.97.0%57.5%7/1 (12.5%)7.9%
Cleveland Indians87.63.6%27.4%30/1 (3.2%)2.0%
Oakland Athletics87.80.8%27.6%40/1 (2.4%)1.3%
Texas Rangers84.00.3%12.7%25/1 (3.8%)0.8%
Los Angeles Angels77.00.1%1.0%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Chicago White Sox68.40.1%0.1%50/1 (2%)--
Seattle Mariners70.80.1%0.1%2500/1--
Kansas City Royals63.40.1%0.1%2500/1--
Baltimore Orioles57.10.1%0.1%2500/1--
Detroit Tigers56.50.1%0.1%2500/1--
Toronto Blue Jays56.30.1%0.1%2500/1--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is very large at 24.1%. The Chicago Cubs at 18.9% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 43%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Cubs chances are down from 23.5 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only -0.18 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #4, #5 and #6 best NL record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the NL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

Los Angeles Dodgers105.598.7%99.9%5/4 (44.4%)43.0%
Chicago Cubs93.547.2%87.8%5/1 (16.7%)18.9%
Milwaukee Brewers93.750.8%88.6%6/1 (14.3%)13.9%
Philadelphia Phillies85.126.5%38.3%7/1 (12.5%)7.0%
Atlanta Braves87.744.6%57.5%8/1 (11.1%)5.7%
Washington Nationals85.221.3%31.6%20/1 (4.8%)4.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks88.01.1%53.0%40/1 (2.4%)3.8%
St Louis Cardinals81.81.9%13.9%10/1 (9.1%)1.1%
New York Mets80.67.5%12.4%40/1 (2.4%)1.1%
Colorado Rockies81.70.2%14.4%20/1 (4.8%)1.1%
San Diego Padres74.50.1%1.0%40/1 (2.4%)--
Cincinnati Reds74.90.2%1.3%150/1 (0.7%)--
Pittsburgh Pirates68.40.1%0.1%150/1 (0.7%)--
San Francisco Giants62.30.1%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Miami Marlins64.30.1%0.1%2500/1--

Using a level of having at least a two percent chance, there are 10 'contending' teams. This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At the top, the Dodgers have a significant 10 percentage point lead over the Astros. At the bottom of the contenders list, 2.2 percentage points separate the Red Sox from the Braves.

Los Angeles Dodgers7/222.2%27.4%UP
Houston Astros4/120.0%17.0%DOWN
Tampa Bay Rays12/17.7%11.9%UP
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%9.1%DOWN
Minnesota Twins6/114.3%8.2%--
Milwaukee Brewers12/17.7%6.2%DOWN
New York Yankees6/114.3%6.2%DOWN
Boston Red Sox14/16.7%4.3%DOWN
Philadelphia Phillies14/16.7%2.4%DOWN
Atlanta Braves16/15.9%2.1%--
Washington Nationals40/12.4%1.6%DOWN
Arizona Diamondbacks80/11.2%1.2%DOWN