Daily Fantasy Projection: Jeff Hoffman

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Hoffman is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 11.7 DK pts (#23 among pitchers). At $6100 he is expected to be the #20 pitcher. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Hoffman is worth $6K. These are 2 better options at lower salaries: Marco Gonzales (13.2 FP) and Cal Quantrill (13.3 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 11.9 FPs, a value reached in 2 of 12 games (17%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 41%.

  • 6/14 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: COL 5.6 (#2 Most Today) vs SD 5.5 (#3 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 11.68 Fantasy Points (#24), 0.31 wins (#17), 0.35 losses (#21 lowest), 4.88 strikeouts (#17), 5.1 innings (#23), 1.46 WHIP (#25), 5.53 ERA (#29),

FANDUEL VALUE: Based on a projected 23 FanDuel points, Hoffman is fairly ranked. At $5700 he is expected to be the #23 pitcher. Based on 6/14 salaries and projected points per dollar, Hoffman is worth $6.4K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 20.5 FPs, a value reached in 3 of 12 games (25%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 43%.

Hoffman is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Based on start%, Hernandez is expected to produce more fantasy points than Jeff Hoffman and the projections validate that assessment. Jeff Hoffman should put up more fantasy points than Richard who is ranked 1 spot below him based on start%. He is starting in just 1% of leagues and with a projected starting pitcher rank of #109 in week 13 it makes sense that he is not starting in many leagues.

He is projected for -3.3 fantasy points in week 13 (#150 SP) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
-3.32 (#150) 
Wins0.22 (#133) 
 
Losses0.47 (#125) 
 
Quality Starts 
0.16 (#145) 
Strikeouts4.5 (#116) 
 
Innings5.49 (#106) 
 
Walks1.78 (#90) 
 

  • Based on 6/14 start percentages, Jeff Hoffman is valued behind Hernandez and above Richard
  • Jeff Hoffman last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/9 @NYM-12 FP, 17 FD, 7 DK4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K, 7 HA, 2 BBI
    6/4 @CHC-8 FP, 24 FD, 13 DK6 IP, 5 ER, 7 K, 6 HA, 1 BBI
    5/29 vs ARI3 FP, 30 FD, 16 DK5 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 7 HA, 2 BBI
    5/26 vs BAL0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 HA, 0 BBI, HD
    5/24 vs BAL-8 FP, 9 FD, 2 DK5 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 7 HA, 2 BBI

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among starting pitchers is #129. Ranking by ownership percentage (3%), Jeff Hoffman is expected to be the #124 starting pitcher for the rest of the season. The market is higher on Jeff Hoffman than the projections are so we consider him to be overvalued. He is projected for -59 fantasy points in 19 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #197 highest average. The market ranks Jeff Hoffman behind Borucki and above Sparkman but the projections rank Sparkman over Jeff Hoffman.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    -59 (#199) 
    Wins5 (#101) 
     
    Losses 
    9 (#201) 
    Quality Starts3 (#151) 
     
    Strikeouts86 (#67) 
     
    Innings101 (#41) 
     
    Walks32 (#38) 
     
    ERA 
    5.26 (#193) 
    WHIP1.41 (#172) 
     

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 4 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of -7.7 FPs in 3 of them. He had 3 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL-7.7 FP per Week33
    Week 5-7 (1 games)+0.70.7
    Week 9-7.5 (1 games)+0.20.2
    Week 103 (1 games)+10.7
    Week 11-19.3 (2 games -9.7 per game)-11.6

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 20 FD points and 9.5 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 1000 and on FanDuel it was 1000 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On DraftKings it was -1000 and on FanDuel it was -1000 FPs. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average), and the same is true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All20 ($6.1K)0 G, 1 B9.5 ($6.9K)1 G, 1 B
    6/9 @NYM17 ($6.8K)--7.1 ($7.6K)--
    6/4 @CHC24 ($6.2K)--13.3 ($6.9K)--
    5/29 ARI30 ($5.5K)--15.8 ($6.3K)+6.3
    5/24 BAL9 ($6K)-111.9 ($6.8K)-7.6
    4/23 WAS21--11.6--