Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Rest of Season Value is Surprising

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Based on ownership percentage (99%), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a market rank of #9 among third basemen. The market expects more than the projections do. His projection based third baseman rank is #13. He is projected for 226 fantasy points in 83 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#27) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Vladimir Guerrero Jr. behind Ramirez and above Suarez but the projections rank Suarez over Vladimir Guerrero Jr..

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
226 (#13) 
Avg 
 
0.262 (#23)
OPS 
0.787 (#21) 
Home Runs 
15 (#9) 
Runs 
39 (#18) 
RBI 
43 (#16) 
Stolen Bases 
2 (#11) 
Strikeouts 
 
76 (#43)

His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among third basemen for the rest of week 13 is #14, which is less than his market rank of #9. When compared to other third basemen in week 14 these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Evan Longoria (16.3 FP), Josh Donaldson (17.9 FP), Justin Turner (20.9 FP), Maikel Franco (17.9 FP), and Tommy La Stella (16.3 FP). He is projected for more points than 2 other third basemen starting in more leagues: Rafael Devers (13.6 FP) and Austin Riley (15.1 FP). Starting in 84% of leagues he is expected to produce 16.4 fantasy points (WK 14). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #11 third baseman of the week, but he is projected to be the #15 third baseman.

Lower Start%V. Guerrero Jr. WK 14Higher Start%
E. Longoria (16 FP)16 FPR. Devers (14 FP)
J. Donaldson (18 FP)#11 Third BaseA. Riley (15 FP)
J. Turner (21 FP) 
 
M. Franco (18 FP) 
 
T. La Stella (16 FP) 
 

He is projected for 15.6 fantasy points in week 14 (#15 3B) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
15.64 (#15) 
Avg 
0.269 (#17) 
OPS 
0.724 (#17) 
Home Runs 
0.96 (#14) 
Runs 
2.7 (#20) 
RBI 
2.93 (#20) 
Stolen Bases 
0.15 (#12) 

  • Based on 6/19 start percentages, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is valued behind Riley and above La Stella but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 14.
  • Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30
    2.4 FP @NYY2.8 FP @NYY2.6 FP @NYY2.5 FP vs KC2.8 FP vs KC2.5 FP vs KC

    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/18 vs LAA-1 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    6/17 vs LAA0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    6/16 @HOU2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-5, 1 R
    6/14 @HOU1 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-0
    6/13 @BAL6 FP, 19 FD, 15 DK3-4, 2 RBI

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (6/19): Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 7.1 DK pts (#12 among third basemen). He is the #21 highest priced third baseman ($3600). Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Guerrero Jr. is worth $3.5K. Maikel Franco (12.8 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Marwin Gonzalez (6.5 FP), Todd Frazier (5.9 FP), Eduardo Escobar (6.9 FP), Miguel Sano (6.2 FP), and Yoan Moncada (5.3 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Guerrero Jr. but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.3 FPs, a value reached in 11 of 43 games (26%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 35%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: There are 2 other options at $2900 (David Freese, Marwin Gonzalez) and Guerrero Jr. is the best option of these 3. Maikel Franco (16.9 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Eduardo Escobar (9.2 FP), DJ LeMahieu (8.5 FP), Kyle Seager (7.5 FP), Manny Machado (9 FP), and Eugenio Suarez (8.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Guerrero Jr. but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 6.7 FPs, a value reached in 12 of 43 games (28%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 39%.

    Guerrero Jr. is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 11.6 fantasy points per week and had 3 weeks where he came up short (under 50% of average) and just one week where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL11.6 FP per Week13
    Week 53.5 (3 games 1.2 per game)-8.1
    Week 63.5 (5 games 0.7 per game)-8.1
    Week 76 (5 games 1.2 per game)
    Week 835.5 (6 games 5.9 per game)+23.9
    Week 915 (6 games 2.5 per game)
    Week 1013.5 (6 games 2.2 per game)
    Week 1114 (5 games 2.8 per game)
    Week 1214.5 (4 games 3.6 per game)
    Week 13-1.5 (2 games -0.8 per game)-13.1

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 8.8 FD points and 7.1 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 19 and 25.2 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All8.8 ($3K)8 G, 18 B7.1 ($3.9K)9 G, 17 B
    6/18 LAA0 ($2.9K)-8.80 ($3.8K)-7.1
    6/17 LAA0 ($2.8K)-8.80 ($4K)-7.1
    6/16 @HOU6.2 ($2.8K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    6/13 @BAL19--15--
    6/12 @BAL21.9 ($3.1K)+13.117 ($4.2K)+9.9
    6/11 @BAL3 ($3K)-5.82 ($4K)-5.1
    6/8 ARI6 ($3K)--6--
    6/7 ARI0 ($3.1K)-8.80 ($3.9K)-7.1
    6/6 NYY0 ($3K)-8.80 ($3.8K)-7.1
    6/5 NYY38.1 ($3K)+29.327 ($3.5K)+19.9
    6/4 NYY6.5 ($3.1K)--5 ($3.5K)--
    6/2 @COL3 ($3.9K)-5.83 ($4.4K)-4.1
    6/1 @COL6 ($3.4K)--5 ($4.1K)--
    5/31 @COL30.7 ($3.3K)+21.924 ($3.9K)+16.9
    5/29 @TB6 ($2.8K)--5 ($3.4K)--
    5/28 @TB0 ($2.8K)-8.80 ($3.7K)-7.1
    5/27 @TB3--2--
    5/26 SD15.2 ($3K)+6.413 ($3.8K)+5.9
    5/25 SD6.2 ($3.2K)--4 ($4.3K)--
    5/24 SD0 ($3.2K)-8.80 ($4.2K)-7.1
    5/23 BOS0 ($3K)-8.80 ($4.4K)-7.1
    5/22 BOS21.7 ($2.9K)+12.917 ($4K)+9.9
    5/21 BOS12.4 ($2.7K)--10 ($3.9K)--
    5/19 @CHW25.2 ($3K)+16.419 ($4K)+11.9
    5/18 @CHW3 ($2.8K)-5.83 ($4K)-4.1
    5/17 @CHW28.4 ($3.1K)+19.620 ($4.1K)+12.9
    5/16 @CHW0 ($3K)-8.80 ($4.1K)-7.1
    5/15 @SF6.5 ($2.7K)--4 ($3.7K)--
    5/14 @SF50.4 ($2.7K)+41.637 ($3.5K)+29.9
    5/12 CHW6 ($2.5K)--5 ($3.5K)--
    5/11 CHW12 ($2.5K)--12 ($3.9K)+4.9
    5/10 CHW0 ($2.5K)-8.80 ($3.7K)-7.1
    5/7 MIN3 ($2.5K)-5.83 ($3.6K)-4.1
    5/6 MIN0 ($2.7K)-8.80 ($3.9K)-7.1
    5/5 @TEX0 ($2.6K)-8.80-7.1
    5/4 @TEX9.5 ($2.7K)--7 ($4.2K)--
    5/3 @TEX3 ($2.9K)-5.83 ($4.2K)-4.1
    5/1 @LAA0 ($3.3K)-8.80 ($4K)-7.1
    4/30 @LAA6 ($3.4K)--4 ($3.9K)--
    4/28 OAK3 ($3.2K)-5.83 ($4.4K)-4.1
    4/27 OAK6 ($3.2K)--5 ($4.3K)--
    4/26 OAK6--5--