Mitch Garver Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Ranking by ownership percentage (82%), Mitch Garver is expected to be the #10 catcher for the rest of the season. The projections indicate that he is likely to fall short of higher market expectations. He is only projected to be the #32 catcher. Most owners expect to start Garver every active week, but we think they might have to bench him in certain situations. Based on these value metrics, there is the potential to SELL HIGH before other league owners catch on. He is projected for 115 fantasy points in 32 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #1 highest average. The market ranks Mitch Garver behind Posey and above Phegley and the projections agree.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
115 (#30) 
Avg0.29 (#1) 
 
OPS0.882 (#1) 
 
Home Runs 
7 (#24) 
Runs 
23 (#27) 
RBI 
24 (#30) 
Stolen Bases 
0 (#27) 
Strikeouts 
31 (#24) 

He does not score as many fantasy points and has fewer RBI than you might expect given his OPS projection.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Mitch Garver is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #10 while his projection (rest of week 13) rank is #16. In week 14 rankings vs other catchers these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Jeff Mathis (6.3 FP), Russell Martin (7.9 FP), Brian McCann (9.8 FP), Kurt Suzuki (11.8 FP), and Chris Iannetta (11.7 FP). Starting in 68% of leagues he is expected to produce 11.7 fantasy points (WK 14). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #9 catcher of the week, but he is projected to be the #42 catcher. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 5.5 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 3.4 which is less than his actual per game average (4.4). In addition to a below average projected FP average, he also is expected to play just 1.841875 games.

He is projected for 6.2 fantasy points in week 14 (#42 C) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
6.17 (#42) 
Avg0.284 (#3) 
 
OPS0.792 (#3) 
 
Home Runs0.39 (#30) 
 
Runs 
1.23 (#40) 
RBI 
1.36 (#39) 
Stolen Bases0 (#32) 
 

  • Based on 6/21 start percentages, Mitch Garver is valued behind Molina and above Posey but the projections rank Posey over Mitch Garver in week 14.
  • Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30
    2 FP vs TB0.7 FP vs TB0.8 FP vs TB1 FP @CHW1 FP @CHW0.9 FP @CHW

    Mitch Garver last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/20 @KC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    6/18 vs BOS4 FP, 12 FD, 9 DK1-7, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/16 vs KC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    6/15 vs KC2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-4, 1 R
    6/14 vs KC6 FP, 22 FD, 16 DK1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (6/21): Garver is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 2.8 DK pts (#44 among catchers). At $5100 he is expected to be the #2 catcher. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Garver is worth $2.3K. Instead of Garver consider these better options at lower salaries: Jeff Mathis (3.2 FP), Yadier Molina (6.3 FP), Robinson Chirinos (5 FP), Russell Martin (3 FP), and Bobby Wilson (3 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 6.2 FPs, a value reached in 48 of 140 games (34%). The combined 'cover percentage' for catchers expected to start is 45%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: Garver is not the best option on FanDuel with a projected 3.7 FD pts (#91 among shortstops). He is the #13 highest priced C/1Bs ($3600). Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Garver is worth $1.4K. Trey Mancini is also priced at $3600 and is a better option at this price. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Albert Pujols (8.1 FP), Miguel Cabrera (7.8 FP), Jeff Mathis (4.2 FP), Yadier Molina (8.2 FP), and Robinson Chirinos (6.7 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.5 FPs, a value reached in 43 of 140 games (31%). The combined 'cover percentage' for shortstops expected to start is 46%.

    Garver is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 11.1 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 2 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL11.1 FP per Week24
    Week 10 (1 games)-11.1
    Week 27.5 (3 games 2.5 per game)
    Week 328.5 (3 games 9.5 per game)+17.4
    Week 415.5 (3 games 5.2 per game)
    Week 52.5 (3 games 0.8 per game)-8.6
    Week 611 (4 games 2.8 per game)
    Week 726.5 (5 games 5.3 per game)+15.4
    Week 88.5 (2 games 4.2 per game)
    Week 103.5 (1 games)-7.6
    Week 1116 (5 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 1210.5 (4 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 133.5 (2 games 1.8 per game)-7.6

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 13.1 FD points and 10.1 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 19 and 31.7 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All13.1 ($3.1K)11 G, 19 B10.1 ($4.6K)9 G, 17 B
    6/20 @KC0 ($3.7K)-13.10 ($5.3K)-10.1
    6/18 BOS12.2 ($3.7K)--9 ($5.1K)--
    6/16 KC0 ($3.6K)-13.10 ($5.3K)-10.1
    6/15 KC6.2 ($3.4K)-6.95 ($5.3K)-5.1
    6/14 KC22.2 ($3.5K)+9.116 ($5.3K)+5.9
    6/12 SEA9.5 ($3.4K)--8 ($5.1K)--
    6/9 @DET21.9 ($3.2K)+8.815 ($5.3K)--
    6/7 @DET31.7 ($2.9K)+18.624 ($4.3K)+13.9
    6/6 @CLE9.5 ($2.9K)--7 ($4.9K)--
    6/5 @CLE0 ($3.1K)-13.10 ($5.5K)-10.1
    6/4 @CLE3 ($3.1K)-10.12 ($5.1K)-8.1
    6/2 @TB12.7 ($3K)--9 ($4.6K)--
    5/14 LAA22.2 ($3.3K)+9.116 ($4.6K)+5.9
    5/13 LAA6.2 ($3.3K)-6.94 ($4.7K)-6.1
    5/12 DET3 ($3.1K)-10.12 ($4.8K)-8.1
    5/11 DET18.7 ($3.1K)--14 ($4.7K)--
    5/10 DET34.4 ($3.1K)+21.324 ($4.7K)+13.9
    5/8 @TOR3 ($3K)-10.13 ($4.5K)-7.1
    5/7 @TOR31.2 ($3K)+18.124 ($4.3K)+13.9
    5/4 @NYY31.4 ($2.8K)+18.324 ($4.4K)+13.9
    5/3 @NYY0 ($2.7K)-13.10 ($4.1K)-10.1
    5/1 HOU6.2 ($2.9K)-6.94 ($4.4K)-6.1
    4/29 HOU0 ($3.2K)-13.10 ($4.2K)-10.1
    4/28 BAL3 ($3.5K)-10.12 ($4.5K)-8.1
    4/26 BAL6 ($3.5K)-7.15 ($4.6K)-5.1
    4/23 @HOU6.2 ($3.8K)-6.95 ($4.5K)-5.1
    4/20 @BAL53.9 ($3.4K)+40.839 ($4.4K)+28.9
    4/16 TOR3 ($3.4K)-10.12 ($4.2K)-8.1
    4/15 TOR0 ($3.4K)-13.10 ($4K)-10.1
    4/14 DET18.2 ($3.2K)--14 ($4.1K)--
    4/10 @NYM24.9 ($2.1K)+11.819 ($2.9K)+8.9
    4/9 @NYM46.6 ($2.1K)+33.536 ($3.1K)+25.9
    4/6 @PHI0 ($2.1K)-13.10-10.1
    4/5 @PHI0 ($2K)-13.10 ($3.6K)-10.1
    4/3 @KC25.4 ($2K)+12.319+8.9
    3/30 CLE0 ($2.4K)-13.10-10.1