Mitch Garver Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Based on ownership percentage (81%), Mitch Garver has a market rank of #10 among catchers. The projections indicate that he is likely to fall short of higher market expectations. The projections have him 19 spots lower in the rankings. Owners should not be surprised if they find themselves benching Garver more than they thought. Since they are overrated by the market, there is the potential to SELL HIGH before other league owners catch on. He is projected for 117 fantasy points in 33 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #1 highest average. The market ranks Mitch Garver behind Posey and above Phegley and the projections agree.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
117 (#28) 
Avg0.288 (#1) 
 
OPS0.88 (#2) 
 
Home Runs 
7 (#24) 
Runs 
24 (#22) 
RBI 
25 (#20) 
Stolen Bases 
0 (#27) 
Strikeouts 
32 (#27) 

His projected fantasy points is lower than you would like given his relatively strong OPS projection.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among catchers for the rest of week 13 is #11, which is less than his market rank of #10. When compared to other catchers in week 14 instead of Garver consider these better options at lower start percentages: Jeff Mathis (6.3 FP), Russell Martin (7.7 FP), Brian McCann (9.6 FP), Kurt Suzuki (11.9 FP), and Chris Iannetta (11.5 FP). Starting in 62% of leagues he is expected to produce 10.5 fantasy points (WK 14). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #10 catcher of the week, but he is projected to be the #42 catcher. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 4.3 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 3.4 which is less than his actual per game average (4.4). In addition to a below average projected FP average, he also is expected to play just 1.841875 games.

He is projected for 6.2 fantasy points in week 14 (#42 C) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
6.19 (#42) 
Avg0.288 (#2) 
 
OPS0.8 (#3) 
 
Home Runs0.38 (#30) 
 
Runs 
1.24 (#40) 
RBI 
1.36 (#37) 
Stolen Bases0 (#32) 
 

  • Based on 6/22 start percentages, Mitch Garver is valued behind Posey and above Phegley and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30
    2 FP vs TB0.7 FP vs TB0.8 FP vs TB1 FP @CHW0.9 FP @CHW0.8 FP @CHW

    Mitch Garver last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/21 @KC1 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-0, 1 BB
    6/20 @KC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    6/18 vs BOS4 FP, 12 FD, 9 DK1-7, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/16 vs KC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    6/15 vs KC2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-4, 1 R

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (6/22): Based on a projected 10.2 FanDuel points, Garver is fairly ranked. He is the #14 highest priced C/1Bs ($3500). Based on 6/22 salaries and projected points per dollar, Garver is worth $3.7K. Trey Mancini is also priced at $3500 and is a better option at this price. These are 3 better options at lower salaries: Eric Hosmer (12.6 FP), C.J. Cron (11.2 FP), and Willians Astudillo (10.4 FP). He is projected for more points than 4 higher priced options: Paul Goldschmidt (9.7 FP), Gary Sanchez (8.3 FP), Pete Alonso (10.1 FP), and Luke Voit (7.5 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.7 FPs, a value reached in 39 of 141 games (28%). The combined 'cover percentage' for shortstops expected to start is 45%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 7.6 DraftKings points, Garver is fairly ranked. At $5500 he is expected to be the #1 catcher. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Garver is worth $5.8K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.3 FPs, a value reached in 44 of 141 games (31%). The combined 'cover percentage' for catchers expected to start is 46%.

    Garver is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 11.2 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 2 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL11.2 FP per Week24
    Week 10 (1 games)-11.2
    Week 27.5 (3 games 2.5 per game)
    Week 328.5 (3 games 9.5 per game)+17.3
    Week 415.5 (3 games 5.2 per game)
    Week 52.5 (3 games 0.8 per game)-8.7
    Week 611 (4 games 2.8 per game)
    Week 726.5 (5 games 5.3 per game)+15.3
    Week 88.5 (2 games 4.2 per game)
    Week 103.5 (1 games)-7.7
    Week 1116 (5 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 1210.5 (4 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 134.5 (3 games 1.5 per game)-6.7

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 13.1 FD points and 10.1 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 19 and on FanDuel it was 31.7 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All13.1 ($3.1K)11 G, 19 B10.1 ($4.6K)9 G, 17 B
    6/21 @KC3--2--
    6/20 @KC0 ($3.7K)-13.10 ($5.3K)-10.1
    6/18 BOS12.2 ($3.7K)--9 ($5.1K)--
    6/16 KC0 ($3.6K)-13.10 ($5.3K)-10.1
    6/15 KC6.2 ($3.4K)-6.95 ($5.3K)-5.1
    6/14 KC22.2 ($3.5K)+9.116 ($5.3K)+5.9
    6/12 SEA9.5 ($3.4K)--8 ($5.1K)--
    6/9 @DET21.9 ($3.2K)+8.815 ($5.3K)--
    6/7 @DET31.7 ($2.9K)+18.624 ($4.3K)+13.9
    6/6 @CLE9.5 ($2.9K)--7 ($4.9K)--
    6/5 @CLE0 ($3.1K)-13.10 ($5.5K)-10.1
    6/4 @CLE3 ($3.1K)-10.12 ($5.1K)-8.1
    6/2 @TB12.7 ($3K)--9 ($4.6K)--
    5/14 LAA22.2 ($3.3K)+9.116 ($4.6K)+5.9
    5/13 LAA6.2 ($3.3K)-6.94 ($4.7K)-6.1
    5/12 DET3 ($3.1K)-10.12 ($4.8K)-8.1
    5/11 DET18.7 ($3.1K)--14 ($4.7K)--
    5/10 DET34.4 ($3.1K)+21.324 ($4.7K)+13.9
    5/8 @TOR3 ($3K)-10.13 ($4.5K)-7.1
    5/7 @TOR31.2 ($3K)+18.124 ($4.3K)+13.9
    5/4 @NYY31.4 ($2.8K)+18.324 ($4.4K)+13.9
    5/3 @NYY0 ($2.7K)-13.10 ($4.1K)-10.1
    5/1 HOU6.2 ($2.9K)-6.94 ($4.4K)-6.1
    4/29 HOU0 ($3.2K)-13.10 ($4.2K)-10.1
    4/28 BAL3 ($3.5K)-10.12 ($4.5K)-8.1
    4/26 BAL6 ($3.5K)-7.15 ($4.6K)-5.1
    4/23 @HOU6.2 ($3.8K)-6.95 ($4.5K)-5.1
    4/20 @BAL53.9 ($3.4K)+40.839 ($4.4K)+28.9
    4/16 TOR3 ($3.4K)-10.12 ($4.2K)-8.1
    4/15 TOR0 ($3.4K)-13.10 ($4K)-10.1
    4/14 DET18.2 ($3.2K)--14 ($4.1K)--
    4/10 @NYM24.9 ($2.1K)+11.819 ($2.9K)+8.9
    4/9 @NYM46.6 ($2.1K)+33.536 ($3.1K)+25.9
    4/6 @PHI0 ($2.1K)-13.10-10.1
    4/5 @PHI0 ($2K)-13.10 ($3.6K)-10.1
    4/3 @KC25.4 ($2K)+12.319+8.9
    3/30 CLE0 ($2.4K)-13.10-10.1