Brad Keller Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations


As of 6/22, Brad Keller is the #89 ranked starting pitcher based on ownership percentage (51%). The market expects more than the projections do. His projection based starting pitcher rank is #125. He is projected for 1 fantasy points in 16 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#125) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Brad Keller behind Pineda and above Sanchez but the projections rank Sanchez over Brad Keller.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
1 (#123) 
Wins6 (#59) 
5 (#130) 
Quality Starts9 (#37) 
64 (#115) 
Innings97 (#26) 
Walks39 (#7) 
ERA3.53 (#54) 
1.31 (#136)


Based on start%, Yamamoto is expected to produce more fantasy points than Brad Keller and the projections validate that assessment. Sanchez is the player that the market has ranked 1 spot below Brad Keller but the projections have Sanchez putting up more fantasy points. Starting in 32% of leagues he is expected to produce 0.4 fantasy points (WK 14). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #75 starting pitcher of week 14. He is projected to be better than that (the #70 starting pitcher). His per game projected FP average is 0.4 which is better than his actual per game average (-3.9). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 2 games.

He is projected for 0.9 fantasy points in week 14 (#74 SP) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
0.88 (#74) 
Wins0.73 (#15) 
0.69 (#138)
Quality Starts1.16 (#12) 
Strikeouts7.99 (#30) 
Innings12.97 (#2) 
Walks5.01 (#3) 

  • Based on 6/22 start percentages, Brad Keller is valued behind Yamamoto and above Sanchez but the projections rank Sanchez over Brad Keller in week 14.

    • Loss 4 IP, 5 K, 15.75 ERA, 2.75 WHIP
    • FanDuel: $8100, 6 FPs (-$6316 value, -21.3 FPs)


    He has averaged -4.8 fantasy points per week and had 8 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 7 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL-4.8 FP per Week78
    Week 116.5 (1 games)+21.3
    Week 2-7 (2 games -3.5 per game)+-2.2-2.2
    Week 311.2 (1 games)+16
    Week 4-4.5 (1 games)+0.30.3
    Week 5-12.2 (1 games)-7.4
    Week 6-19.2 (2 games -9.6 per game)-14.4
    Week 7-13.5 (1 games)-8.7
    Week 8-13.8 (1 games)-9
    Week 98.5 (1 games)+13.3
    Week 10-16.5 (2 games -8.2 per game)-11.7
    Week 110 (1 games)+4.8
    Week 125.5 (1 games)+10.3
    Week 13-17.5 (1 games)-12.7


    He averaged 25.6 FD points and 12.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was -2.7 and on FanDuel it was 6 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 28 and on FanDuel it was 46 FPs. He has had an equal number of good (20% above average) and bad games (20% below) on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he has had more bad than good games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All25.6 ($7.3K)3 G, 3 B12.8 ($6.7K)3 G, 4 B
    6/19 @SEA6 ($8.1K)-19.6-2.2-15
    6/14 @MIN40 ($6.9K)+14.421.5 ($5.8K)+8.7
    6/8 CHW34 ($6.8K)--18.4--
    6/2 @TEX34 ($6.7K)--16.4 ($5.5K)--
    5/28 @CHW15--4.9--
    5/22 @STL34 ($6.2K)--17 ($6.7K)--
    5/17 @LAA14 ($6.6K)--3.6 ($6K)-9.2
    5/11 PHI9 ($7K)-16.61.2 ($6.5K)-11.6
    5/5 @DET28 ($7.8K)--13.4 ($8K)--
    4/29 TB3 ($8.2K)-22.6-2.7 ($7.8K)-15.5
    4/22 @TB13 ($8.5K)--4.2 ($8K)-8.6
    4/17 @CHW18 ($8.5K)--7.8--
    4/12 CLE55.6 ($7.8K)+3030.6 ($7.1K)+17.8
    4/7 @DET22 ($7.6K)--8.7 ($7.2K)--
    4/2 MIN28 ($7.1K)--11.5 ($7K)--
    3/28 CHW46 ($6.2K)+20.428 ($4.8K)+15.2