Keller Fantasy Week 14 Projection vs Expectation


Week 14 starting pitchers comparisons show instead of Keller consider these better options at lower start percentages: Anibal Sanchez (3.4 FP), Michael Wacha (2.7 FP), Noah Syndergaard (3.3 FP), Adam Plutko (3.7 FP), and Ariel Jurado (3.7 FP). Lance Lynn (1.7 FP), Kyle Gibson (1 FP), Mike Fiers (1.9 FP), Michael Pineda (1.7 FP), and Jake Odorizzi (1.8 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Keller but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 33% of leagues he is expected to produce 0.5 fantasy points (WK 14). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #76 starting pitcher of week 14. He is projected to be better than that (the #50 starting pitcher). His per game projected FP average is 1 which is better than his actual per game average (-3.9). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 2 games.

Lower Start%B. Keller WK 14Higher Start%
A. Sanchez (3 FP)1.9 FPL. Lynn (1.7 FP)
M. Wacha (2.7 FP)#76 Starting PitcherK. Gibson (1 FP)
N. Syndergaard (3 FP) 
M. Fiers (1.9 FP)
A. Plutko (4 FP) 
M. Pineda (1.7 FP)
A. Jurado (4 FP) 
J. Odorizzi (1.8 FP)

He is projected for 1.9 fantasy points in week 14 (#50 SP) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
1.89 (#50) 
Wins0.81 (#11) 
0.6 (#129)
Quality Starts1.16 (#13) 
Strikeouts7.87 (#33) 
Innings12.94 (#3) 
Walks5 (#2) 

  • Based on 6/23 start percentages, Brad Keller is valued behind Stripling and above Musgrove but the projections rank Musgrove over Brad Keller in week 14.
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    Ranking by ownership percentage (52%), Brad Keller is expected to be the #91 starting pitcher for the rest of the season. Our projections indicate that Brad Keller is overrated by the market. His fantasy starting pitcher projection rank is #103. He is projected for 8 fantasy points in 16 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#102) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Brad Keller behind Eovaldi and above Means but the projections rank Means over Brad Keller.

    Lower Own%B. Keller ROSHigher Own%
    C. Sabathia (14 FP)8 FPM. Stroman (3 FP)
    W. LeBlanc (16 FP)#91 Starting PitcherS. Matz (4 FP)
    M. Wacha (21 FP) 
    G. Canning (1.7 FP)
    C. McHugh (24 FP) 
    A. Wood (15 FP) 
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    8 (#100) 
    Wins7 (#21) 
    5 (#137)
    Quality Starts9 (#35) 
    63 (#116)
    Innings97 (#20) 
    Walks39 (#7) 
    ERA3.43 (#43) 
    1.31 (#132)


    • Loss 4 IP, 5 K, 15.75 ERA, 2.75 WHIP
    • FanDuel: $8100, 6 FPs (-$6316 value, -21.3 FPs)


    He has averaged -4.8 fantasy points per week and had 8 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 7 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL-4.8 FP per Week78
    Week 116.5 (1 games)+21.3
    Week 2-7 (2 games -3.5 per game)+-2.2-2.2
    Week 311.2 (1 games)+16
    Week 4-4.5 (1 games)+0.30.3
    Week 5-12.2 (1 games)-7.4
    Week 6-19.2 (2 games -9.6 per game)-14.4
    Week 7-13.5 (1 games)-8.7
    Week 8-13.8 (1 games)-9
    Week 98.5 (1 games)+13.3
    Week 10-16.5 (2 games -8.2 per game)-11.7
    Week 110 (1 games)+4.8
    Week 125.5 (1 games)+10.3
    Week 13-17.5 (1 games)-12.7


    He averaged 25.6 FD points and 12.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was -2.7 and on FanDuel it was 6 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 28 and 46 on FanDuel. He has had an equal number of good (20% above average) and bad games (20% below) on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he has had more bad than good games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All25.6 ($7.3K)3 G, 3 B12.8 ($6.7K)3 G, 4 B
    6/19 @SEA6 ($8.1K)-19.6-2.2-15
    6/14 @MIN40 ($6.9K)+14.421.5 ($5.8K)+8.7
    6/8 CHW34 ($6.8K)--18.4--
    6/2 @TEX34 ($6.7K)--16.4 ($5.5K)--
    5/28 @CHW15--4.9--
    5/22 @STL34 ($6.2K)--17 ($6.7K)--
    5/17 @LAA14 ($6.6K)--3.6 ($6K)-9.2
    5/11 PHI9 ($7K)-16.61.2 ($6.5K)-11.6
    5/5 @DET28 ($7.8K)--13.4 ($8K)--
    4/29 TB3 ($8.2K)-22.6-2.7 ($7.8K)-15.5
    4/22 @TB13 ($8.5K)--4.2 ($8K)-8.6
    4/17 @CHW18 ($8.5K)--7.8--
    4/12 CLE55.6 ($7.8K)+3030.6 ($7.1K)+17.8
    4/7 @DET22 ($7.6K)--8.7 ($7.2K)--
    4/2 MIN28 ($7.1K)--11.5 ($7K)--
    3/28 CHW46 ($6.2K)+20.428 ($4.8K)+15.2