Mitch Garver Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Ranking by ownership percentage (75%), Mitch Garver is expected to be the #10 catcher for the rest of the season. The market expects more than the projections do. The projections have him 20 spots lower in the rankings. Owners should not be surprised if they find themselves benching Garver more than they thought. Owners may want to look into finding a better value at the catcher position and sell while the market value is this high. He is projected for 113 fantasy points in 33 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #1 highest average. The market ranks Mitch Garver behind Posey and above McCann and the projections agree.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
113 (#29) 
Avg0.285 (#3) 
 
OPS0.873 (#2) 
 
Home Runs 
7 (#22) 
Runs 
23 (#24) 
RBI 
23 (#26) 
Stolen Bases 
0 (#26) 
Strikeouts 
31 (#26) 

His projected fantasy points is lower than you would like given his relatively strong OPS projection.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Mitch Garver is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #10 while his projection (rest of week 14) rank is #25. Week 15 catchers comparisons show these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Kurt Suzuki (9.7 FP), Chris Iannetta (8.7 FP), Welington Castillo (10.7 FP), Tyler Flowers (9.6 FP), and Martin Maldonado (8.7 FP). Starting in 45% of leagues he is expected to produce 10.5 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #13 catcher of the week, but he is projected to be the #29 catcher. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 2.2 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 3.3 which is less than his actual per game average (4.4). In addition to a below average projected FP average, he also is expected to play just 2.5 games.

Lower Start%M. Garver WK 15Higher Start%
K. Suzuki (10 FP)8 FPJ. McCann (8 FP)
C. Iannetta (9 FP)#13 Catcher 
W. Castillo (11 FP) 
 
T. Flowers (10 FP) 
 
M. Maldonado (9 FP) 
 

He is projected for 8.3 fantasy points in week 15 (#29 C) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
8.28 (#29) 
Avg0.285 (#5) 
 
OPS0.778 (#3) 
 
Home Runs 
0.49 (#23) 
Runs 
1.64 (#28) 
RBI 
1.68 (#33) 
Stolen Bases 
0 (#29) 

  • Based on 6/25 start percentages, Mitch Garver is valued behind Phegley and above Lucroy but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    0.9 FP @OAK0.8 FP @OAK2.5 FP @OAK0.8 FP vs TEX2.4 FP vs TEX0.9 FP vs TEX

    Mitch Garver last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/21 @KC1 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-0, 1 BB
    6/20 @KC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    6/18 vs BOS4 FP, 12 FD, 9 DK1-7, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/16 vs KC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    6/15 vs KC2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-4, 1 R

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (6/25): Projected for 6 DraftKings pts Mitch Garver is the #7 ranked catcher. At $5000 he is expected to be the #2 catcher. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $4.6K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Wilson Ramos (6.9 FP), Buster Posey (7.6 FP), Jacob Realmuto (6.7 FP), Austin Barnes (6.5 FP), and Willson Contreras (7.5 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 6.5 FPs, a value reached in 48 of 141 games (34%). The combined 'cover percentage' for catchers expected to start is 45%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: Garver is not the best option on FanDuel with a projected 8 FD pts (#38 among pitchers). At $3100 he is expected to be the #22 C/1Bs. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $2.8K. There are 2 other options at $3100 (Daniel Murphy, Eric Hosmer) and Garver is ranked #3 among the 3. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Albert Pujols (8.3 FP), Miguel Cabrera (8.1 FP), Joey Votto (9.8 FP), Mark Reynolds (9.2 FP), and Wilson Ramos (9.1 FP). He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Yasmani Grandal (7.1 FP), James McCann (5 FP), and Garrett Cooper (7.4 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.8 FPs, a value reached in 48 of 141 games (34%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 44%.

    Garver is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 11.2 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 2 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL11.2 FP per Week24
    Week 10 (1 games)-11.2
    Week 27.5 (3 games 2.5 per game)
    Week 328.5 (3 games 9.5 per game)+17.3
    Week 415.5 (3 games 5.2 per game)
    Week 52.5 (3 games 0.8 per game)-8.7
    Week 611 (4 games 2.8 per game)
    Week 726.5 (5 games 5.3 per game)+15.3
    Week 88.5 (2 games 4.2 per game)
    Week 103.5 (1 games)-7.7
    Week 1116 (5 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 1210.5 (4 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 134.5 (3 games 1.5 per game)-6.7

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 13.1 FD points and 10.1 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 19 and on FanDuel it was 31.7 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All13.1 ($3.1K)11 G, 19 B10.1 ($4.6K)9 G, 17 B
    6/21 @KC3--2--
    6/20 @KC0 ($3.7K)-13.10 ($5.3K)-10.1
    6/18 BOS12.2 ($3.7K)--9 ($5.1K)--
    6/16 KC0 ($3.6K)-13.10 ($5.3K)-10.1
    6/15 KC6.2 ($3.4K)-6.95 ($5.3K)-5.1
    6/14 KC22.2 ($3.5K)+9.116 ($5.3K)+5.9
    6/12 SEA9.5 ($3.4K)--8 ($5.1K)--
    6/9 @DET21.9 ($3.2K)+8.815 ($5.3K)--
    6/7 @DET31.7 ($2.9K)+18.624 ($4.3K)+13.9
    6/6 @CLE9.5 ($2.9K)--7 ($4.9K)--
    6/5 @CLE0 ($3.1K)-13.10 ($5.5K)-10.1
    6/4 @CLE3 ($3.1K)-10.12 ($5.1K)-8.1
    6/2 @TB12.7 ($3K)--9 ($4.6K)--
    5/14 LAA22.2 ($3.3K)+9.116 ($4.6K)+5.9
    5/13 LAA6.2 ($3.3K)-6.94 ($4.7K)-6.1
    5/12 DET3 ($3.1K)-10.12 ($4.8K)-8.1
    5/11 DET18.7 ($3.1K)--14 ($4.7K)--
    5/10 DET34.4 ($3.1K)+21.324 ($4.7K)+13.9
    5/8 @TOR3 ($3K)-10.13 ($4.5K)-7.1
    5/7 @TOR31.2 ($3K)+18.124 ($4.3K)+13.9
    5/4 @NYY31.4 ($2.8K)+18.324 ($4.4K)+13.9
    5/3 @NYY0 ($2.7K)-13.10 ($4.1K)-10.1
    5/1 HOU6.2 ($2.9K)-6.94 ($4.4K)-6.1
    4/29 HOU0 ($3.2K)-13.10 ($4.2K)-10.1
    4/28 BAL3 ($3.5K)-10.12 ($4.5K)-8.1
    4/26 BAL6 ($3.5K)-7.15 ($4.6K)-5.1
    4/23 @HOU6.2 ($3.8K)-6.95 ($4.5K)-5.1
    4/20 @BAL53.9 ($3.4K)+40.839 ($4.4K)+28.9
    4/16 TOR3 ($3.4K)-10.12 ($4.2K)-8.1
    4/15 TOR0 ($3.4K)-13.10 ($4K)-10.1
    4/14 DET18.2 ($3.2K)--14 ($4.1K)--
    4/10 @NYM24.9 ($2.1K)+11.819 ($2.9K)+8.9
    4/9 @NYM46.6 ($2.1K)+33.536 ($3.1K)+25.9
    4/6 @PHI0 ($2.1K)-13.10-10.1
    4/5 @PHI0 ($2K)-13.10 ($3.6K)-10.1
    4/3 @KC25.4 ($2K)+12.319+8.9
    3/30 CLE0 ($2.4K)-13.10-10.1