Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch

SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE

Nolan Arenado was removed from yesterday’s game of beanball after being hit by a pitch in the forearm. He was supposedly removed as a precaution to keep the swelling down but we will find out if he is in the lineup tonight for their game against the Padres. He is not expected to miss much time, if any.

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Arenado is not the best option on FanDuel with a projected 12.3 FD pts (#3 among third basemen). He is the #2 highest priced third baseman ($4200). Based on the projection, Arenado is worth $4.1K. Kris Bryant (14.2 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Based on salary, he is expected to have 12.8 FPs, a value reached in 83 of 237 games (35%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 42%.

  • 6/26 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: COL 4 (#25 Most Today) vs SF 3.5 (#29 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 12.31 Fantasy Points (#2), 4.32 plate appearances (#4), 0.317 BA (#6), 0.917 OPS (#4), 0.23 HR (#4), 0.75 RBI (#1), 0.63 runs (#7), 0.01 stolen bases (#27),

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Arenado is projected for 9.4 DraftKings points and is fairly ranked. At $4900 he is expected to be the #4 third baseman. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Arenado is worth $5.1K. There are 2 other options at $4900 (Alex Bregman, Scott Kingery) and Arenado is ranked #2 among the 3. Kris Bryant (10.6 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: Manny Machado (9.2 FP) and Rafael Devers (8.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.9 FPs, a value reached in 97 of 237 games (41%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 38%.

Arenado is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among third basemen for the rest of week 14 is #5, which is less than his market rank of #2. When compared to other third basemen in week 15 these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Mike Moustakas (20.8 FP), Anthony Rendon (20.1 FP), Tommy La Stella (19.2 FP), Kris Bryant (21.1 FP), and Rafael Devers (18.9 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 21.1 fantasy points (WK 15). Owners expect him to be the most productive third baseman of the week, but he is projected to be the #6 third baseman. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 2.5 short of expectations. In addition to a below average projected FP average, he also is expected to play just 4.862125 games.

He is projected for 18.6 fantasy points in week 15 (#6 3B) in 5 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
18.64 (#6) 
Avg0.311 (#3) 
 
OPS0.882 (#1) 
 
Home Runs1.33 (#3) 
 
Runs 
3.39 (#9) 
RBI3.81 (#3) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.07 (#29)

  • Based on 6/26 start %s the market values Nolan Arenado over Bregman and the projections agree.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    4 FP vs HOU3.4 FP vs HOU3 FP @ARI4 FP @ARI4.2 FP @ARI

    Nolan Arenado last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/25 @SF0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    6/24 @SF2 FP, 9 FD, 7 DK1-2, 2 BB
    6/23 @LAD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/22 @LAD3 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-4, 1 RBI, 1 BB
    6/21 @LAD5 FP, 19 FD, 14 DK1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    There are 6 third basemen owned in 100% of leagues and Nolan Arenado is projected to be the #2 among them. Using actual fantasy production and current start percentage as the first and second tie-breaker, his market rank is #2. He is fairly rated as an elite third baseman. He is projected for 297 fantasy points in 80 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#3) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Nolan Arenado behind Rendon and above Bregman and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    297 (#2) 
    Avg0.309 (#2) 
     
    OPS0.956 (#3) 
     
    Home Runs21 (#1) 
     
    Runs54 (#3) 
     
    RBI61 (#1) 
     
    Stolen Bases 
     
    1 (#25)
    Strikeouts 
     
    53 (#26)

    He has more relative strengths than weaknesses which makes him a better value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 22 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 3 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL22 FP per Week43
    Week 17.5 (4 games 1.9 per game)-14.2
    Week 219 (6 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 314 (5 games 2.8 per game)
    Week 420 (5 games 4 per game)
    Week 536 (6 games 6 per game)+14.3
    Week 637 (7 games 5.3 per game)+15.3
    Week 726.5 (5 games 5.3 per game)
    Week 813.5 (5 games 2.7 per game)
    Week 944 (6 games 7.3 per game)+22.3
    Week 1033.5 (7 games 4.8 per game)+11.8
    Week 118 (6 games 1.3 per game)-13.7
    Week 1216 (7 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 1326.5 (6 games 4.4 per game)
    Week 142 (2 games 1 per game)-19.7

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 13.7 points and on DraftKings it was 10.8 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 23 and 31.4 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All13.7 ($4.5K)18 G, 25 B10.8 ($5.2K)15 G, 18 B
    6/25 @SF0 ($4.3K)-13.70 ($4.7K)-10.8
    6/24 @SF9 ($4.5K)--7 ($5K)--
    6/23 @LAD0 ($4.3K)-13.70-10.8
    6/22 @LAD9.5 ($4.1K)--7 ($4.2K)--
    6/21 @LAD18.7 ($4.1K)--14 ($4.5K)--
    6/20 @ARI9.2--8--
    6/19 @ARI9.2 ($4.2K)--8 ($4.8K)--
    6/18 @ARI40.9 ($4.2K)+27.230 ($4.8K)+19.2
    6/16 SD6.2 ($4.8K)-7.54-6.8
    6/15 SD9.2 ($4.8K)--8 ($5.5K)--
    6/14 SD0--0--
    6/13 SD6--5--
    6/12 CHC6--4--
    6/11 CHC9.2 ($4.7K)--7 ($5.6K)--
    6/10 CHC22.2 ($4.8K)+8.516 ($5.5K)--
    6/9 @NYM3 ($4.3K)-10.73 ($4.9K)-7.8
    6/8 @NYM15.5 ($4.3K)--10 ($5.4K)--
    6/7 @NYM0 ($4.2K)-13.70 ($5.5K)-10.8
    6/6 @CHC0 ($4.2K)-13.70-10.8
    6/5 @CHC16.2 ($4.3K)--11 ($5.7K)--
    6/4 @CHC3 ($4.3K)-10.73 ($5.3K)-7.8
    6/2 TOR21.7 ($4.8K)+817 ($5.8K)+6.2
    6/1 TOR9.7 ($4.8K)--7 ($5.9K)--
    5/31 TOR28.7 ($4.8K)+1521 ($5.9K)+10.2
    5/30 ARI15.7 ($4.8K)--11 ($5.7K)--
    5/29 ARI9.2 ($4.9K)--7 ($5.6K)--
    5/28 ARI12.4 ($4.8K)--8 ($5.9K)--
    5/27 ARI13--10--
    5/26 BAL28.4 ($4.8K)+14.721 ($5.7K)+10.2
    5/25 BAL41.7 ($4.7K)+2830 ($5.6K)+19.2
    5/24 BAL40.4 ($4.7K)+26.731 ($5.6K)+20.2
    5/23 @PIT12.2 ($4.2K)--10 ($5.1K)--
    5/22 @PIT12.2 ($4.2K)--10 ($5.2K)--
    5/21 @PIT6 ($4.2K)-7.76 ($5.3K)--
    5/19 @PHI0 ($4.3K)-13.70 ($5.3K)-10.8
    5/18 @PHI9 ($4.2K)--7 ($5.4K)--
    5/17 @PHI6.2 ($4.4K)-7.55 ($5.4K)-5.8
    5/15 @BOS6 ($4.5K)-7.75 ($5.1K)-5.8
    5/14 @BOS25.2 ($4.4K)+11.518 ($5.1K)+7.2
    5/12 SD9.2 ($5K)--6--
    5/11 SD9.5 ($5K)--7 ($5.8K)--
    5/10 SD22.2 ($4.8K)+8.517 ($5.7K)+6.2
    5/9 SF40.9 ($4.8K)+27.230 ($5.8K)+19.2
    5/7 SF9.2 ($4.8K)--8 ($5.6K)--
    5/5 ARI9.2 ($4.8K)--8--
    5/4 ARI0 ($4.9K)-13.70 ($5.6K)-10.8
    5/3 ARI18.2 ($4.9K)--15 ($5.5K)--
    5/2 @MIL31.4 ($4.2K)+17.724 ($4.8K)+13.2
    5/1 @MIL47.4 ($4.3K)+33.735 ($5.1K)+24.2
    4/30 @MIL15.7 ($4.2K)--11 ($5.2K)--
    4/29 @MIL0 ($4.4K)-13.70 ($5.4K)-10.8
    4/28 @ATL0 ($4.3K)-13.70 ($5.2K)-10.8
    4/27 @ATL24.7 ($4K)+1119 ($4.8K)+8.2
    4/26 @ATL31.4 ($4.2K)+17.723 ($4.8K)+12.2
    4/24 WAS19.7 ($4.7K)--14 ($5.3K)--
    4/23 WAS0 ($4.6K)-13.70 ($5.1K)-10.8
    4/22 WAS40.6 ($4.6K)+26.930 ($5.2K)+19.2
    4/21 PHI9 ($4.6K)--8 ($5.4K)--
    4/19 PHI0 ($4.6K)-13.70 ($5.4K)-10.8
    4/18 PHI9.4 ($4.6K)--7 ($5.4K)--
    4/16 @SD28.4 ($3.8K)+14.721 ($4.5K)+10.2
    4/15 @SD18.7 ($3.7K)--14 ($4.5K)--
    4/14 @SF34.9 ($3.8K)+21.224+13.2
    4/13 @SF0 ($3.9K)-13.70-10.8
    4/11 @SF3 ($4.2K)-10.72 ($4.7K)-8.8
    4/9 ATL3 ($4.4K)-10.73 ($5.3K)-7.8
    4/8 ATL6.2 ($4.3K)-7.55 ($5.4K)-5.8
    4/7 LAD28.2 ($4.3K)+14.522+11.2
    4/6 LAD0 ($4.5K)-13.70 ($5.2K)-10.8
    4/5 LAD16.2 ($4.8K)--11--
    4/3 @TB3 ($4.3K)-10.72-8.8
    4/2 @TB0 ($4.5K)-13.70 ($4.1K)-10.8
    4/1 @TB15.5 ($4.7K)--13 ($4.8K)--
    3/31 @MIA0 ($4.8K)-13.70 ($5.1K)-10.8
    3/30 @MIA6.2 ($5K)-7.55-5.8
    3/29 @MIA9.5 ($4.8K)--8 ($5K)--
    3/28 @MIA9.2 ($4.6K)--7 ($5.5K)--