Dahl FanDuel Projection Provides Play and Fade Advice

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

There are 3 other options at $3400 (Khris Davis, Scott Kingery, Oscar Mercado) and Dahl is the best option of these 4. Mallex Smith (13.1 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Shin-Soo Choo (11.4 FP), Nelson Cruz (10.4 FP), Justin Upton (10.1 FP), Jay Bruce (9 FP), and Giancarlo Stanton (11.3 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Dahl but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 10.4 FPs, a value reached in 56 of 150 games (37%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 42%.

  • 6/26 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: COL 4 (#25 Most Today) vs SF 3.5 (#29 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 12.02 Fantasy Points (#13), 4.02 plate appearances (#34), 0.339 BA (#10), 0.987 OPS (#13), 0.2 HR (#23), 0.62 RBI (#16), 0.63 runs (#24), 0.04 stolen bases (#69),
Lower SalaryD. DahlHigher Salary
M. Smith (13 FP)12 FPS. Choo (11 FP)
 
#37 OutfieldN. Cruz (10 FP)
 
 
J. Upton (10 FP)
 
 
J. Bruce (9 FP)
 
 
G. Stanton (11 FP)

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: David Dahl is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 9.2 DK pts (#15 among outfielders). At $4600 he is expected to be the #24 outfielder. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $5.1K. There are 7 other options at $4600 (Michael Brantley, Jarrod Dyson, Bryce Harper, Max Kepler, Andrew Benintendi, Nick Senzel, Austin Meadows) and Dahl is ranked #3 among the 8. Aaron Judge (10.3 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Starling Marte (6.3 FP), J.D. Martinez (8.4 FP), Marcell Ozuna (8.4 FP), Domingo Santana (7.6 FP), and Michael Conforto (8.7 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Dahl but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.3 FPs, a value reached in 55 of 150 games (37%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

Dahl is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

David Dahl is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #22 while his projection (rest of week 14) rank is #44. When compared to other outfielders in week 15 these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Nick Markakis (15.6 FP), Hunter Pence (18 FP), Justin Upton (20 FP), Alex Gordon (16.4 FP), and Ryan Braun (16.9 FP). Starting in 84% of leagues he is expected to produce 18.6 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #17 outfielder of the week, but he is projected to be the #73 outfielder. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 5.8 short of expectations. In addition to a below average projected FP average, he also is expected to play just 4.160375 games.

Lower Start%D. Dahl WK 15Higher Start%
N. Markakis (16 FP)13 FPM. Conforto (11 FP)
H. Pence (18 FP)#17 Outfield 
J. Upton (20 FP) 
 
A. Gordon (16 FP) 
 
R. Braun (17 FP) 
 

He is projected for 12.8 fantasy points in week 15 (#73 OF) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
12.82 (#73) 
Avg0.295 (#17) 
 
OPS0.804 (#16) 
 
Home Runs0.74 (#57) 
 
Runs 
2.71 (#69) 
RBI2.61 (#61) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.18 (#87)

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, David Dahl is valued behind Alvarez and above Meadows but the projections rank Meadows over David Dahl in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    1.9 FP vs HOU2.8 FP vs HOU2.5 FP @ARI1.9 FP @ARI3.6 FP @ARI

    David Dahl last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/25 @SF2 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-4, 1 RBI
    6/24 @SF6 FP, 22 FD, 16 DK1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R
    6/23 @LAD6 FP, 22 FD, 16 DK1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/22 @LAD-2 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-5
    6/21 @LAD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    As of 6/26, David Dahl is the #22 ranked outfielder based on ownership percentage (97%). The market expects more than the projections do. He is only projected to be the #36 outfielder. Owners should not be surprised if they find themselves benching Dahl more than they thought. He is projected for 209 fantasy points in 69 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #35 highest average. The market ranks David Dahl behind Mancini and above Alvarez but the projections rank Alvarez over David Dahl.

    Lower Own%D. Dahl ROSHigher Own%
    N. Markakis (214 FP)209 FPM. Conforto (200 FP)
    J. Upton (225 FP)#22 Outfield 
    A. Gordon (210 FP) 
     
    A. Hicks (218 FP) 
     
    N. Castellanos (225 FP) 
     
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    209 (#36) 
    Avg0.295 (#13) 
     
    OPS0.869 (#16) 
     
    Home Runs 
    12 (#38) 
    Runs44 (#27) 
     
    RBI 
    42 (#28) 
    Stolen Bases 
     
    3 (#69)
    Strikeouts 
     
    73 (#122)

    He does not score as many fantasy points and has fewer RBI than you might expect given his OPS projection.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 16.6 fantasy points per week and had 3 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 2 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL16.6 FP per Week32
    Week 114.5 (4 games 3.6 per game)
    Week 214 (6 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 412.5 (4 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 514 (6 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 617 (7 games 2.4 per game)
    Week 710.5 (5 games 2.1 per game)
    Week 8-0.5 (4 games -0.1 per game)-17.1
    Week 916.5 (6 games 2.8 per game)
    Week 1035.5 (7 games 5.1 per game)+18.9
    Week 1128 (6 games 4.7 per game)+11.4
    Week 1234.5 (7 games 4.9 per game)+17.9
    Week 1312 (6 games 2 per game)
    Week 147.5 (2 games 3.8 per game)-9.1

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 11.2 points and on DraftKings it was 8.7 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 17 and on FanDuel it was 22.2 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All11.2 ($3.6K)14 G, 20 B8.7 ($4.6K)11 G, 18 B
    6/25 @SF9.5 ($3.4K)--7 ($4.3K)--
    6/24 @SF22.2 ($3.3K)+1116 ($4.4K)+7.3
    6/23 @LAD21.7 ($3.2K)+10.516+7.3
    6/22 @LAD0 ($3.2K)-11.20 ($3.9K)-8.7
    6/21 @LAD0 ($3.3K)-11.20 ($4.4K)-8.7
    6/20 @ARI3 ($3.4K)-8.22 ($4.7K)-6.7
    6/19 @ARI15.4 ($3.4K)--12 ($4.9K)--
    6/18 @ARI9.7 ($3.5K)--7 ($4.9K)--
    6/16 SD0 ($3.7K)-11.20-8.7
    6/15 SD38.1 ($3.7K)+26.928 ($5.3K)+19.3
    6/14 SD38.4 ($3.9K)+27.227 ($5.3K)+18.3
    6/13 SD9.2--9--
    6/12 CHC12 ($3.8K)--11 ($4.6K)--
    6/11 CHC6.5 ($3.9K)--4 ($5.3K)-4.7
    6/10 CHC12.2 ($3.9K)--8 ($5.3K)--
    6/9 @NYM9.5 ($3.5K)--7 ($4.7K)--
    6/8 @NYM0 ($3.4K)-11.20 ($4.8K)-8.7
    6/7 @NYM31.4 ($3.5K)+20.225 ($4.8K)+16.3
    6/6 @CHC9.7 ($3.6K)--7--
    6/5 @CHC34.9 ($3.6K)+23.726 ($4.6K)+17.3
    6/4 @CHC6.2 ($3.5K)--5 ($4.3K)--
    6/2 TOR15.7 ($4K)--12 ($5.1K)--
    6/1 TOR15.2 ($4K)--13 ($4.9K)--
    5/31 TOR15.7 ($4K)--11 ($4.7K)--
    5/30 ARI37.4 ($3.7K)+26.229 ($4.2K)+20.3
    5/29 ARI12.2 ($3.7K)--10 ($4.1K)--
    5/28 ARI0 ($3.7K)-11.20 ($4.2K)-8.7
    5/27 ARI21.7--16--
    5/26 BAL12.4 ($3.7K)--9 ($4.6K)--
    5/25 BAL9.2 ($3.6K)--8 ($4.4K)--
    5/24 BAL12.2 ($3.5K)--10 ($4.4K)--
    5/23 @PIT12.7 ($2.7K)--10 ($3.9K)--
    5/22 @PIT6 ($2.7K)--5 ($4.2K)--
    5/21 @PIT3 ($2.7K)-8.22 ($4.1K)-6.7
    5/19 @PHI6 ($2.8K)--5 ($4.1K)--
    5/18 @PHI3 ($2.9K)-8.23 ($4.1K)-5.7
    5/15 @BOS3.5 ($3K)-7.72 ($4.5K)-6.7
    5/14 @BOS0 ($3.1K)-11.20 ($4.3K)-8.7
    5/12 SD18.2 ($3.9K)+715+6.3
    5/11 SD9.2 ($3.8K)--7 ($4.6K)--
    5/10 SD9.2 ($4.1K)--8 ($5.1K)--
    5/9 SF0 ($4.3K)-11.20 ($5.1K)-8.7
    5/7 SF3 ($4.3K)-8.22 ($4.9K)-6.7
    5/5 ARI12.7 ($4.4K)--9--
    5/4 ARI0 ($4.3K)-11.20 ($5K)-8.7
    5/3 ARI12.7 ($4.3K)--7 ($4.5K)--
    5/2 @MIL37.9 ($3.8K)+26.728 ($4.2K)+19.3
    5/1 @MIL0 ($3.7K)-11.20 ($4.7K)-8.7
    4/30 @MIL3 ($3.6K)-8.22 ($4.7K)-6.7
    4/29 @MIL6.5 ($3.7K)--5 ($5.1K)--
    4/28 @ATL0 ($3.3K)-11.20 ($4.6K)-8.7
    4/27 @ATL21.4 ($3.3K)+10.217 ($4.6K)+8.3
    4/26 @ATL6.2 ($3.4K)--5 ($4.6K)--
    4/24 WAS21.7 ($3.9K)+10.517 ($5K)+8.3
    4/23 WAS0 ($4K)-11.20 ($4.5K)-8.7
    4/22 WAS6.2 ($4K)--5 ($5K)--
    4/21 PHI9.2 ($4.1K)--7 ($4.9K)--
    4/20 PHI6 ($4.1K)--8 ($4.7K)--
    4/19 PHI12 ($3.9K)--10 ($4.6K)--
    4/18 PHI12.2 ($3.9K)--11 ($4.6K)--
    4/7 LAD0 ($3.8K)-11.20-8.7
    4/6 LAD28.2 ($4K)+1722 ($4.7K)+13.3
    4/5 LAD21.7 ($4.2K)+10.516+7.3
    4/3 @TB0 ($3.8K)-11.20-8.7
    4/2 @TB0 ($3.7K)-11.20 ($4.1K)-8.7
    4/1 @TB6 ($3.8K)--6 ($5.1K)--
    3/31 @MIA6 ($3.7K)--5 ($4.7K)--
    3/30 @MIA12.5 ($3.7K)--10--
    3/29 @MIA12.5 ($3.3K)--9 ($4.7K)--
    3/28 @MIA21.9 ($3.2K)+10.717 ($4.7K)+8.3