SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 41-38 the Rockies are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 38.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 21 good wins vs 17 bad losses. They have won 45% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 59% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 54%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-11, 48%) is better than their expected 44% win percentage. The Rockies should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 4/21.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.23 which ranks #6 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #8 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is 0 which ranks them #7 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 79 Games||5.5 (#1)||0.268 (#1)||0.625 (#6)|
|Road||4.3 (#13)||0.227 (#13)||0.555 (#13)|
|Home||6.9 (#1)||0.312 (#1)||0.701 (#1)|
|Last 13 Games||6.3 (#3)||0.285 (#4)||0.617 (#9)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||5.3 (#14)||0.270 (#15)||0.620 (#10)|
|Road||4.0 (#3)||0.243 (#6||0.590 (#5)|
|Home||6.8 (#15)||0.297 (#15)||0.651 (#13)|
|Last 13 Games||6.3 (#13)||0.294 (#13)||0.661 (#12)|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 9 games is not good. They have 4 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road GameJUN 26CLOSE GAME59% @SF947 milesJUN 27LIKELY LOSS32% LAD947 milesJUN 28LIKELY LOSS38% LAD--JUN 29CLOSE GAME45% LAD--JUN 30LIKELY LOSS33% LAD--JUL 2CLOSE GAME55% HOU--JUL 3CLOSE GAME51% HOU--JUL 5LIKELY LOSS35% @ARI587 milesJUL 6CLOSE GAME54% @ARI-- milesJUL 7LIKELY WIN67% @ARI-- miles
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (29% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 15.9%. At #5 in the league, they are behind the Brewers by one point. With a -1.78 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Phillies in the league. With a -0.63 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rockies are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rockies are playing 10 games, traveling 4469 miles crossing 7 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Colorado Rockies' next game. They are -141 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Rockies are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/30 they had a 1.4% chance before dropping to 0% on 4/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.2%. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 36% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1). In simulations they make the World Series 3.6% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #4 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #16 Easiest
Rockies' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||NL Champ||MLB Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Nolan Arenado||3.6||100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #2)|
|Trevor Story||3.2||100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #2)|
|Charlie Blackmon||3.6||100% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #2)|
|Wade Davis||1.8||80% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #18)|
|Daniel Murphy||2.5||93% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #9)|
|Chris Iannetta||1.7||8% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #38)|