Chris Iannetta Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Our projections run counter to general expectations. Chris Iannetta is projected to be a top tier fantasy catcher. Ranking by ownership percentage (8%), Chris Iannetta is expected to be the #38 catcher for the rest of the season. He is projected to be the #12 catcher. There could be an opportunity to acquire him while the market is still not as high on them as the projections are. Unless someone offers an even better catcher value, we advise you to hold on to him. He is projected for 144 fantasy points in 50 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #10 highest average. The market ranks Chris Iannetta behind Collins and above Murphy but the projections rank Chris Iannetta over Collins.

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Lower Own%C. Iannetta ROSHigher Own%
C. Casali (156 FP)144 FPB. McCann (114 FP)
 
#38 CatcherK. Suzuki (143 FP)
 
 
F. Cervelli (60 FP)
 
 
T. Flowers (130 FP)
 
 
J. Castro (116 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
144 (#12) 
Avg 
 
0.253 (#24)
OPS 
0.811 (#7) 
Home Runs 
10 (#5) 
Runs 
24 (#18) 
RBI 
30 (#13) 
Stolen Bases 
 
0 (#26)
Strikeouts 
 
56 (#53)

He does not score as many fantasy points and has fewer RBI than you might expect given his OPS projection.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Week 15 catchers comparisons show these are 4 better options at lower start percentages: Welington Castillo (10.9 FP), Martin Maldonado (8.9 FP), Chris Herrmann (10.3 FP), and Curt Casali (10.9 FP). Brian McCann (8.2 FP), Jason Castro (8.3 FP), Josh Phegley (8.9 FP), Roberto Perez (8.1 FP), and James McCann (8.3 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Iannetta but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 5% of leagues he is expected to produce 7.7 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #35 catcher of week 15. He is projected to be better than that (the #26 catcher).

Lower Start%C. Iannetta WK 15Higher Start%
W. Castillo (11 FP)9 FPB. McCann (8 FP)
M. Maldonado (9 FP)#35 CatcherJ. Castro (8 FP)
C. Herrmann (10 FP) 
J. Phegley (9 FP)
C. Casali (11 FP) 
R. Perez (8 FP)
 
 
J. McCann (8 FP)

He is projected for 8.9 fantasy points in week 15 (#26 C) in 3 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
8.86 (#26) 
Avg 
0.253 (#23) 
OPS0.726 (#10) 
 
Home Runs0.63 (#15) 
 
Runs 
1.5 (#31) 
RBI 
1.88 (#24) 
Stolen Bases 
0 (#31) 

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, Chris Iannetta is valued behind Smith and above Murphy but the projections rank Chris Iannetta over Smith in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    1.5 FP vs HOU1.9 FP vs HOU1.6 FP @ARI1.6 FP @ARI2.3 FP @ARI

    Chris Iannetta last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/25 @SF2 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-2, 2 BB
    6/22 @LAD-1 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    6/20 @ARI5 FP, 16 FD, 12 DK2-4, 2 RBI, 1 BB
    6/16 vs SD2 FP, 13 FD, 9 DK1-4, 1 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/14 vs SD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (6/26): Chris Iannetta is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 5.2 DK pts (#12 among catchers). At $3700 he is expected to be the #19 catcher. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Iannetta is worth $3.9K. Josh Phegley is also priced at $3700, and Iannetta is a better option at this price. These are 3 better options at lower salaries: Yadier Molina (6 FP), Buster Posey (6.2 FP), and Curt Casali (6 FP). Brian McCann (4.1 FP), Kurt Suzuki (4.6 FP), Tyler Flowers (5 FP), Roberto Perez (3.8 FP), and Christian Vazquez (3.9 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Iannetta but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.9 FPs, a value reached in 58 of 146 games (40%). The combined 'cover percentage' for catchers expected to start is 45%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: Chris Iannetta is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 6.8 FD pts (#46 among pitchers). At $2600 he is expected to be the #51 C/1Bs. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Iannetta is worth $2.4K. There are 6 other options at $2600 (Kurt Suzuki, Jason Castro, Logan Forsythe, Justin Bour, Tyler White, Chance Sisco) and Iannetta is ranked #3 among the 7. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Yadier Molina (7.8 FP), Neil Walker (7.1 FP), Lucas Duda (6.9 FP), Buster Posey (8.1 FP), and Curt Casali (7.9 FP). Brian McCann (5.5 FP), Tyler Flowers (6.6 FP), Roberto Perez (5.2 FP), Christian Vazquez (5.1 FP), and C.J. Cron (6.7 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Iannetta but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 5.3 FPs, a value reached in 68 of 146 games (47%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 45%.

    Iannetta is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 6.1 fantasy points per week and had 5 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 3 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL6.1 FP per Week35
    Week 16 (2 games 3 per game)
    Week 27.5 (4 games 1.9 per game)
    Week 30.5 (3 games 0.2 per game)-5.6
    Week 60.5 (1 games)-5.6
    Week 715.5 (2 games 7.8 per game)+9.4
    Week 82 (3 games 0.7 per game)-4.1
    Week 98.5 (2 games 4.2 per game)
    Week 1017 (6 games 2.8 per game)+10.9
    Week 110 (2 games 0 per game)-6.1
    Week 1210.5 (4 games 2.6 per game)+4.4
    Week 134 (2 games 2 per game)
    Week 141.5 (1 games)-4.6

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 9 points and on DraftKings it was 6.6 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 15 and on FanDuel it was 24.7 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All9 ($2.7K)9 G, 15 B6.6 ($3.8K)8 G, 13 B
    6/25 @SF6 ($2.7K)--4 ($3.6K)--
    6/22 @LAD0 ($2.4K)-90 ($3.2K)-6.6
    6/20 @ARI16 ($2.5K)+712 ($3.6K)+5.4
    6/16 SD12.7 ($3K)--9--
    6/14 SD0 ($3.2K)-90 ($4.4K)-6.6
    6/12 CHC6.5 ($3.1K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    6/11 CHC22.1 ($3.1K)+13.115 ($4.1K)+8.4
    6/9 @NYM0 ($2.4K)-90 ($3.7K)-6.6
    6/6 @CHC3.5 ($2.6K)-5.52-4.6
    6/2 TOR31.2 ($3.1K)+22.223 ($4K)+16.4
    5/31 TOR0 ($3.1K)-90 ($4.3K)-6.6
    5/30 ARI0 ($3.3K)-90 ($4K)-6.6
    5/29 ARI0 ($3.3K)-90 ($3.7K)-6.6
    5/28 ARI25.2 ($3.2K)+16.219 ($4K)+12.4
    5/27 ARI0--0--
    5/25 BAL24.7 ($3K)+15.719 ($4K)+12.4
    5/23 @PIT3 ($2.5K)-62 ($3.7K)-4.6
    5/19 @PHI3 ($2.5K)-63 ($3.7K)-3.6
    5/17 @PHI0 ($2.4K)-90 ($3.9K)-6.6
    5/14 @BOS9.2 ($2.3K)--7 ($3.6K)--
    5/9 SF22.2 ($3.1K)+13.215 ($4.2K)+8.4
    5/7 SF27.7 ($3K)+18.721 ($3.9K)+14.4
    5/3 ARI6.5 ($3.1K)--5 ($3.8K)--
    4/13 @SF9 ($2.2K)--8--
    4/11 @SF0 ($2.5K)-90 ($3.2K)-6.6
    4/8 ATL0 ($3.1K)-90 ($4K)-6.6
    4/7 LAD3 ($3K)-63-3.6
    4/3 @TB18.7 ($2.2K)+9.714+7.4
    4/2 @TB3 ($2.1K)-62 ($3.2K)-4.6
    4/1 @TB3 ($2.3K)-62 ($3.6K)-4.6
    3/30 @MIA6.2 ($2.3K)--4--
    3/28 @MIA15.5 ($2.3K)+6.512 ($3K)+5.4