Odubel Herrera Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

REST OF SEASON VALUE

As of 6/29, Odubel Herrera is the #84 ranked outfielder based on ownership percentage (20%). His projection based outfielder rank is #59. There could be an opportunity to acquire him while the market is still not as high on them as the projections are. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better outfielder option available. He is projected for more FPs than Brian Goodwin who has virtually the same market rank (20% Owned) as Herrera. He is projected for 181 fantasy points in 73 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#108) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Odubel Herrera behind Goodwin and above Bader but the projections rank Odubel Herrera over Goodwin.

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Lower Own%O. Herrera ROSHigher Own%
T. Naquin (182 FP)181 FPA. Jones (173 FP)
A. Santander (193 FP)#84 OutfieldM. Gonzalez (142 FP)
 
 
J. Heyward (177 FP)
 
 
J. Reddick (166 FP)
 
 
J. Dyson (148 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
181 (#59) 
Avg 
0.27 (#54) 
OPS 
 
0.748 (#101)
Home Runs 
 
8 (#76)
Runs 
34 (#65) 
RBI38 (#38) 
 
Stolen Bases4 (#48) 
 
Strikeouts 
 
63 (#94)

His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Week 15 outfielders comparisons show these are 3 better options at lower start percentages: Carlos Gonzalez (14.7 FP), Gerardo Parra (14.4 FP), and Anthony Santander (15.5 FP). Adam Jones (11.2 FP), Melky Cabrera (5.5 FP), Brett Gardner (13 FP), Dexter Fowler (12.6 FP), and Marwin Gonzalez (9.8 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Herrera but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 2% of leagues he is expected to produce 10.3 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #96 outfielder of week 15. He is projected to be better than that (the #59 outfielder).

Lower Start%O. Herrera WK 15Higher Start%
C. Gonzalez (15 FP)14 FPA. Jones (11 FP)
G. Parra (14 FP)#96 OutfieldM. Cabrera (6 FP)
A. Santander (16 FP) 
B. Gardner (13 FP)
 
 
D. Fowler (13 FP)
 
 
M. Gonzalez (10 FP)

He is projected for 13.9 fantasy points in week 15 (#59 OF) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
13.87 (#59) 
Avg 
0.268 (#60) 
OPS 
 
0.691 (#82)
Home Runs 
 
0.63 (#76)
Runs 
 
2.59 (#71)
RBI2.81 (#49) 
 
Stolen Bases 
0.27 (#56) 

  • Based on 6/29 start percentages, Odubel Herrera is valued behind Inciarte and above Luplow but the projections rank Odubel Herrera over Inciarte in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    2.5 FP @ATL2.7 FP @ATL2.2 FP @ATL2 FP @NYM2.4 FP @NYM2.2 FP @NYM

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 8 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 8.6 FPs in 3 of them. He had 3 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL8.6 FP per Week33
    Week 13.5 (3 games 1.2 per game)-5.1
    Week 216 (5 games 3.2 per game)+7.4
    Week 317 (6 games 2.8 per game)+8.4
    Week 41.5 (3 games 0.5 per game)-7.1
    Week 6-1.5 (2 games -0.8 per game)-10.1
    Week 721.5 (6 games 3.6 per game)+12.9
    Week 85 (7 games 0.7 per game)
    Week 95.5 (7 games 0.8 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 7.1 points and on DraftKings it was 5.3 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 16 and 21.4 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All7.1 ($2.8K)10 G, 17 B5.3 ($3.7K)9 G, 15 B
    5/26 @MIL0 ($2.5K)-7.10 ($3.2K)-5.3
    5/25 @MIL18 ($2.5K)+10.915 ($3.5K)+9.7
    5/24 @MIL3 ($2.4K)-4.12 ($3.5K)-3.3
    5/23 @CHC9.7 ($2.5K)--7 ($3.3K)--
    5/22 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.2K)-5.3
    5/21 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.4K)-5.3
    5/20 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.3K)-5.3
    5/19 COL0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.8K)-5.3
    5/18 COL6 ($2.9K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    5/17 COL0 ($2.8K)-7.10 ($3.7K)-5.3
    5/16 MIL3 ($2.9K)-4.12 ($3.9K)-3.3
    5/15 MIL0 ($3.1K)-7.10 ($3.7K)-5.3
    5/14 MIL9 ($3.1K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    5/13 MIL13 ($3K)+5.99 ($3.7K)+3.7
    5/12 @KC13 ($2.7K)+5.910 ($3.6K)+4.7
    5/11 @KC21.4 ($2.6K)+14.317 ($3.7K)+11.7
    5/10 @KC6.5 ($2.6K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    5/8 @STL12.7 ($2.6K)+5.69+3.7
    5/7 @STL22.2 ($2.8K)+15.116 ($3.6K)+10.7
    5/6 @STL0 ($2.8K)-7.10 ($3.6K)-5.3
    5/5 WAS0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    5/4 WAS0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    4/17 NYM3--3--
    4/16 NYM0 ($2.9K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    4/15 NYM6.2 ($3.3K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    4/14 @MIA3 ($3.4K)-4.12 ($3.9K)-3.3
    4/13 @MIA6.5 ($3.4K)--5--
    4/12 @MIA13 ($3.3K)+5.99 ($3.9K)+3.7
    4/10 WAS6 ($3K)--5 ($3.9K)--
    4/9 WAS3 ($2.9K)-4.13 ($3.8K)--
    4/8 WAS25.2 ($3K)+18.121 ($4.1K)+15.7
    4/7 MIN0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.8K)-5.3
    4/6 MIN6.5 ($2.7K)--5--
    4/5 MIN9 ($2.6K)--9 ($4.1K)+3.7
    4/3 @WAS12.4 ($2.2K)+5.39+3.7
    4/2 @WAS24.4 ($2.2K)+17.319 ($3.5K)+13.7
    3/31 ATL0 ($2.4K)-7.10-5.3
    3/30 ATL9.2 ($2.4K)--6--
    3/28 ATL6.5 ($2.5K)--5--