Herrera FanDuel Projection Provides Play and Fade Advice

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

There are 15 other options at $2000 (Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Joyce, Lonnie Chisenhall, Juan Lagares, Dalton Pompey, Blake Swihart, D.J. Stewart, Bradley Zimmer, Tyler O'Neill, Franchy Cordero, Daniel Palka, Ryan Cordell, Braden Bishop, Scott Heineman, Lane Thomas) and Herrera is the best option of these 16. Curtis Granderson (3.4 FP), Adam Jones (8.4 FP), Nick Markakis (9.1 FP), Melky Cabrera (2.6 FP), and Alex Gordon (9.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Herrera but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 2.2 FPs, a value reached in 143 of 187 games (76%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 42%.

  • 7/2 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: PHI 5.2 (#6 Most Today) vs ATL 4.9 (#13 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 9.66 Fantasy Points (#50), 4.16 plate appearances (#18), 0.288 BA (#31), 0.754 OPS (#83), 0.1 HR (#78), 0.51 RBI (#52), 0.54 runs (#44), 0.06 stolen bases (#42),

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Odubel Herrera is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 7.5 DK pts (#45 among outfielders). At $3100 he is expected to be the #119 outfielder. Based on 7/2 salaries and projected points per dollar, Herrera is worth $4.1K. Andrew Toles is also priced at $3100, and Herrera is a better option at this price. Curtis Granderson (2.6 FP), Adam Jones (6.6 FP), Nick Markakis (6.9 FP), Melky Cabrera (2.1 FP), and Alex Gordon (7.2 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Herrera but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 5.6 FPs, a value reached in 74 of 187 games (40%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

Herrera is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Week 16 outfielders comparisons show these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Gerardo Parra (8.2 FP), A.J. Pollock (7.3 FP), Jake Marisnick (6.6 FP), Ender Inciarte (6.3 FP), and Tyler Naquin (7.3 FP). Marwin Gonzalez (4.4 FP), Leury Garcia (3.5 FP), Billy Hamilton (4.7 FP), Danny Santana (5.1 FP), and Joc Pederson (3.3 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Herrera but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 3% of leagues he is expected to produce 5.2 fantasy points (WK 16). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #91 outfielder of week 16. He is projected to be better than that (the #75 outfielder).

Lower Start%O. Herrera WK 16Higher Start%
G. Parra (8 FP)6 FPM. Gonzalez (4 FP)
A. Pollock (7 FP)#91 OutfieldL. Garcia (4 FP)
J. Marisnick (7 FP) 
B. Hamilton (5 FP)
E. Inciarte (6 FP) 
D. Santana (5 FP)
T. Naquin (7 FP) 
J. Pederson (3 FP)

He is projected for 6.2 fantasy points in week 16 (#75 OF) in 3 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
6.16 (#75) 
Avg 
0.251 (#83) 
OPS 
 
0.66 (#90)
Home Runs 
0.3 (#76) 
Runs 
1.29 (#69) 
RBI1.41 (#47) 
 
Stolen Bases0.13 (#65) 
 

  • Based on 7/2 start percentages, Odubel Herrera is valued behind Polanco and above O'Neill and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14
    2.2 FP vs WAS2 FP vs WAS1.9 FP vs WAS

    Odubel Herrera last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/26 @MIL-2 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    5/25 @MIL5 FP, 18 FD, 15 DK2-3, 1 SB, 1 BB
    5/24 @MIL0 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-1, 1 BB
    5/23 @CHC2 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-5, 1 RBI, 1 R
    5/22 @CHC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Based on ownership percentage (19%), Odubel Herrera has a market rank of #83 among outfielders. The projections have him 28 spots higher in the rankings. There could be an opportunity to acquire him while the market is still not as high on them as the projections are. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better outfielder option available. He is projected for 181 fantasy points in 73 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#114) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Odubel Herrera behind Pillar and above Goodwin but the projections rank Odubel Herrera over Pillar.

    Lower Own%O. Herrera ROSHigher Own%
    A. Santander (188 FP)181 FPA. Jones (171 FP)
     
    #83 OutfieldR. Braun (171 FP)
     
     
    L. Cain (175 FP)
     
     
    M. Gonzalez (137 FP)
     
     
    J. Heyward (174 FP)
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    181 (#54) 
    Avg 
    0.27 (#57) 
    OPS 
     
    0.754 (#95)
    Home Runs 
     
    8 (#73)
    Runs 
    34 (#61) 
    RBI38 (#36) 
     
    Stolen Bases4 (#43) 
     
    Strikeouts 
     
    64 (#103)

    His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 8 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 8.6 FPs in 3 of them. He had 3 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL8.6 FP per Week33
    Week 13.5 (3 games 1.2 per game)-5.1
    Week 216 (5 games 3.2 per game)+7.4
    Week 317 (6 games 2.8 per game)+8.4
    Week 41.5 (3 games 0.5 per game)-7.1
    Week 6-1.5 (2 games -0.8 per game)-10.1
    Week 721.5 (6 games 3.6 per game)+12.9
    Week 85 (7 games 0.7 per game)
    Week 95.5 (7 games 0.8 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 7.1 points and on DraftKings it was 5.3 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 16 and on FanDuel it was 21.4 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All7.1 ($2.8K)10 G, 17 B5.3 ($3.7K)9 G, 15 B
    5/26 @MIL0 ($2.5K)-7.10 ($3.2K)-5.3
    5/25 @MIL18 ($2.5K)+10.915 ($3.5K)+9.7
    5/24 @MIL3 ($2.4K)-4.12 ($3.5K)-3.3
    5/23 @CHC9.7 ($2.5K)--7 ($3.3K)--
    5/22 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.2K)-5.3
    5/21 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.4K)-5.3
    5/20 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.3K)-5.3
    5/19 COL0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.8K)-5.3
    5/18 COL6 ($2.9K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    5/17 COL0 ($2.8K)-7.10 ($3.7K)-5.3
    5/16 MIL3 ($2.9K)-4.12 ($3.9K)-3.3
    5/15 MIL0 ($3.1K)-7.10 ($3.7K)-5.3
    5/14 MIL9 ($3.1K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    5/13 MIL13 ($3K)+5.99 ($3.7K)+3.7
    5/12 @KC13 ($2.7K)+5.910 ($3.6K)+4.7
    5/11 @KC21.4 ($2.6K)+14.317 ($3.7K)+11.7
    5/10 @KC6.5 ($2.6K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    5/8 @STL12.7 ($2.6K)+5.69+3.7
    5/7 @STL22.2 ($2.8K)+15.116 ($3.6K)+10.7
    5/6 @STL0 ($2.8K)-7.10 ($3.6K)-5.3
    5/5 WAS0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    5/4 WAS0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    4/17 NYM3--3--
    4/16 NYM0 ($2.9K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    4/15 NYM6.2 ($3.3K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    4/14 @MIA3 ($3.4K)-4.12 ($3.9K)-3.3
    4/13 @MIA6.5 ($3.4K)--5--
    4/12 @MIA13 ($3.3K)+5.99 ($3.9K)+3.7
    4/10 WAS6 ($3K)--5 ($3.9K)--
    4/9 WAS3 ($2.9K)-4.13 ($3.8K)--
    4/8 WAS25.2 ($3K)+18.121 ($4.1K)+15.7
    4/7 MIN0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.8K)-5.3
    4/6 MIN6.5 ($2.7K)--5--
    4/5 MIN9 ($2.6K)--9 ($4.1K)+3.7
    4/3 @WAS12.4 ($2.2K)+5.39+3.7
    4/2 @WAS24.4 ($2.2K)+17.319 ($3.5K)+13.7
    3/31 ATL0 ($2.4K)-7.10-5.3
    3/30 ATL9.2 ($2.4K)--6--
    3/28 ATL6.5 ($2.5K)--5--