Odubel Herrera Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Ranking by ownership percentage (19%), Odubel Herrera is expected to be the #83 outfielder for the rest of the season. The projections have him 30 spots higher in the rankings. There could be a nice opportunity to acquire him before the market realizes he is undervalued. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better outfielder option available. He is projected for 174 fantasy points in 70 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#113) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Odubel Herrera behind Pillar and above Thames but the projections rank Odubel Herrera over Pillar.

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Lower Own%O. Herrera ROSHigher Own%
T. Naquin (176 FP)174 FPA. Jones (165 FP)
A. Santander (179 FP)#83 OutfieldH. Pence (165 FP)
 
 
R. Braun (170 FP)
 
 
L. Cain (170 FP)
 
 
M. Gonzalez (134 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
174 (#53) 
Avg 
0.27 (#57) 
OPS 
 
0.757 (#94)
Home Runs 
 
8 (#68)
Runs 
 
33 (#62)
RBI36 (#39) 
 
Stolen Bases 
3 (#58) 
Strikeouts 
 
62 (#103)

His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Week 16 outfielders comparisons show these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Gerardo Parra (8.1 FP), Jake Marisnick (6.7 FP), Tyler Naquin (7.5 FP), Teoscar Hernandez (6.9 FP), and Steven Duggar (6.3 FP). Melky Cabrera (2.6 FP), Dexter Fowler (5.2 FP), Marwin Gonzalez (4.4 FP), Leury Garcia (3.4 FP), and Billy Hamilton (4.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Herrera but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 2% of leagues he is expected to produce 4.6 fantasy points (WK 16). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #97 outfielder of week 16. He is projected to be better than that (the #75 outfielder).

Lower Start%O. Herrera WK 16Higher Start%
G. Parra (8 FP)6 FPM. Cabrera (2.6 FP)
J. Marisnick (7 FP)#97 OutfieldD. Fowler (5 FP)
T. Naquin (8 FP) 
M. Gonzalez (4 FP)
T. Hernandez (7 FP) 
L. Garcia (3 FP)
S. Duggar (6 FP) 
B. Hamilton (5 FP)

He is projected for 6.1 fantasy points in week 16 (#75 OF) in 3 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
6.06 (#75) 
Avg 
0.251 (#80) 
OPS 
 
0.657 (#84)
Home Runs 
0.29 (#77) 
Runs 
1.27 (#72) 
RBI1.39 (#48) 
 
Stolen Bases0.13 (#60) 
 

  • Based on 7/4 start percentages, Odubel Herrera is valued behind Inciarte and above Hernandez but the projections rank Odubel Herrera over Inciarte in week 16.
  • Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14
    2.1 FP vs WAS2 FP vs WAS2 FP vs WAS

    Odubel Herrera last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/26 @MIL-2 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    5/25 @MIL5 FP, 18 FD, 15 DK2-3, 1 SB, 1 BB
    5/24 @MIL0 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-1, 1 BB
    5/23 @CHC2 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-5, 1 RBI, 1 R
    5/22 @CHC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 8 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 8.6 FPs in 3 of them. He had 3 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL8.6 FP per Week33
    Week 13.5 (3 games 1.2 per game)-5.1
    Week 216 (5 games 3.2 per game)+7.4
    Week 317 (6 games 2.8 per game)+8.4
    Week 41.5 (3 games 0.5 per game)-7.1
    Week 6-1.5 (2 games -0.8 per game)-10.1
    Week 721.5 (6 games 3.6 per game)+12.9
    Week 85 (7 games 0.7 per game)
    Week 95.5 (7 games 0.8 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 7.1 FD points and 5.3 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 16 and on FanDuel it was 21.4 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All7.1 ($2.8K)10 G, 17 B5.3 ($3.7K)9 G, 15 B
    5/26 @MIL0 ($2.5K)-7.10 ($3.2K)-5.3
    5/25 @MIL18 ($2.5K)+10.915 ($3.5K)+9.7
    5/24 @MIL3 ($2.4K)-4.12 ($3.5K)-3.3
    5/23 @CHC9.7 ($2.5K)--7 ($3.3K)--
    5/22 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.2K)-5.3
    5/21 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.4K)-5.3
    5/20 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.3K)-5.3
    5/19 COL0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.8K)-5.3
    5/18 COL6 ($2.9K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    5/17 COL0 ($2.8K)-7.10 ($3.7K)-5.3
    5/16 MIL3 ($2.9K)-4.12 ($3.9K)-3.3
    5/15 MIL0 ($3.1K)-7.10 ($3.7K)-5.3
    5/14 MIL9 ($3.1K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    5/13 MIL13 ($3K)+5.99 ($3.7K)+3.7
    5/12 @KC13 ($2.7K)+5.910 ($3.6K)+4.7
    5/11 @KC21.4 ($2.6K)+14.317 ($3.7K)+11.7
    5/10 @KC6.5 ($2.6K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    5/8 @STL12.7 ($2.6K)+5.69+3.7
    5/7 @STL22.2 ($2.8K)+15.116 ($3.6K)+10.7
    5/6 @STL0 ($2.8K)-7.10 ($3.6K)-5.3
    5/5 WAS0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    5/4 WAS0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    4/17 NYM3--3--
    4/16 NYM0 ($2.9K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    4/15 NYM6.2 ($3.3K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    4/14 @MIA3 ($3.4K)-4.12 ($3.9K)-3.3
    4/13 @MIA6.5 ($3.4K)--5--
    4/12 @MIA13 ($3.3K)+5.99 ($3.9K)+3.7
    4/10 WAS6 ($3K)--5 ($3.9K)--
    4/9 WAS3 ($2.9K)-4.13 ($3.8K)--
    4/8 WAS25.2 ($3K)+18.121 ($4.1K)+15.7
    4/7 MIN0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.8K)-5.3
    4/6 MIN6.5 ($2.7K)--5--
    4/5 MIN9 ($2.6K)--9 ($4.1K)+3.7
    4/3 @WAS12.4 ($2.2K)+5.39+3.7
    4/2 @WAS24.4 ($2.2K)+17.319 ($3.5K)+13.7
    3/31 ATL0 ($2.4K)-7.10-5.3
    3/30 ATL9.2 ($2.4K)--6--
    3/28 ATL6.5 ($2.5K)--5--