Odubel Herrera Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Ranking by ownership percentage (19%), Odubel Herrera is expected to be the #83 outfielder for the rest of the season. He is projected to be the #52 outfielder. There could be a nice opportunity to acquire him before the market realizes he is undervalued. Unless someone offers an even better outfielder value, we advise you to hold on to him. He is projected for 175 fantasy points in 70 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#109) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Odubel Herrera behind Nimmo and above Thames but the projections rank Odubel Herrera over Nimmo.

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Lower Own%O. Herrera ROSHigher Own%
A. Santander (181 FP)175 FPA. Jones (166 FP)
 
#83 OutfieldH. Pence (165 FP)
 
 
R. Braun (166 FP)
 
 
L. Cain (166 FP)
 
 
M. Gonzalez (134 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
175 (#52) 
Avg 
0.271 (#55) 
OPS 
 
0.759 (#93)
Home Runs 
 
8 (#68)
Runs 
33 (#59) 
RBI36 (#39) 
 
Stolen Bases 
3 (#57) 
Strikeouts 
 
61 (#103)

His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Week 16 outfielders comparisons show instead of Herrera consider these better options at lower start percentages: Gerardo Parra (8.3 FP), Robbie Grossman (6.2 FP), Jake Marisnick (6.5 FP), Ender Inciarte (6.5 FP), and Alex Dickerson (6.4 FP). Marwin Gonzalez (4.2 FP), Leury Garcia (3.4 FP), Billy Hamilton (4.6 FP), Danny Santana (4.9 FP), and Joc Pederson (3.3 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Herrera but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 3% of leagues he is expected to produce 5 fantasy points (WK 16). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #90 outfielder of week 16. He is projected to be better than that (the #75 outfielder).

Lower Start%O. Herrera WK 16Higher Start%
G. Parra (8 FP)6 FPM. Gonzalez (4 FP)
R. Grossman (6 FP)#90 OutfieldL. Garcia (3 FP)
J. Marisnick (6 FP) 
B. Hamilton (5 FP)
E. Inciarte (6 FP) 
D. Santana (5 FP)
A. Dickerson (6 FP) 
J. Pederson (3 FP)

He is projected for 6.1 fantasy points in week 16 (#75 OF) in 3 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
6.12 (#75) 
Avg 
0.252 (#79) 
OPS 
0.661 (#83) 
Home Runs 
0.3 (#77) 
Runs 
1.26 (#70) 
RBI1.37 (#47) 
 
Stolen Bases0.13 (#60) 
 

  • Based on 7/5 start percentages, Odubel Herrera is valued behind Polanco and above O'Neill and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14
    2.2 FP vs WAS2 FP vs WAS2 FP vs WAS

    Odubel Herrera last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/26 @MIL-2 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    5/25 @MIL5 FP, 18 FD, 15 DK2-3, 1 SB, 1 BB
    5/24 @MIL0 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-1, 1 BB
    5/23 @CHC2 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-5, 1 RBI, 1 R
    5/22 @CHC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (7/5): There are 10 other options at $2000 (Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Joyce, Lonnie Chisenhall, Juan Lagares, Dalton Pompey, Blake Swihart, D.J. Stewart, Franchy Cordero, Braden Bishop, Lane Thomas) and Herrera is the best option of these 11. Curtis Granderson (8.5 FP), Ian Desmond (8.5 FP), Nick Markakis (8.6 FP), Melky Cabrera (2.8 FP), and Brett Gardner (5.4 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Herrera but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 2.2 FPs, a value reached in 143 of 187 games (76%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 43%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: There are 5 other options at $3100 (Brian Goodwin, Mac Williamson, Manuel Margot, Andrew Toles, Mike Tauchman) and Herrera is the best option of these 6. Harrison Bader (6.9 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Curtis Granderson (6.3 FP), Ian Desmond (6.6 FP), Nick Markakis (6.4 FP), Melky Cabrera (2.2 FP), and Brett Gardner (4.1 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Herrera but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 5.6 FPs, a value reached in 74 of 187 games (40%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 37%.

    Herrera is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 8 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 8.6 FPs in 3 of them. He had 3 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL8.6 FP per Week33
    Week 13.5 (3 games 1.2 per game)-5.1
    Week 216 (5 games 3.2 per game)+7.4
    Week 317 (6 games 2.8 per game)+8.4
    Week 41.5 (3 games 0.5 per game)-7.1
    Week 6-1.5 (2 games -0.8 per game)-10.1
    Week 721.5 (6 games 3.6 per game)+12.9
    Week 85 (7 games 0.7 per game)
    Week 95.5 (7 games 0.8 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 7.1 points and on DraftKings it was 5.3 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 16 and 21.4 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All7.1 ($2.8K)10 G, 17 B5.3 ($3.7K)9 G, 15 B
    5/26 @MIL0 ($2.5K)-7.10 ($3.2K)-5.3
    5/25 @MIL18 ($2.5K)+10.915 ($3.5K)+9.7
    5/24 @MIL3 ($2.4K)-4.12 ($3.5K)-3.3
    5/23 @CHC9.7 ($2.5K)--7 ($3.3K)--
    5/22 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.2K)-5.3
    5/21 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.4K)-5.3
    5/20 @CHC0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.3K)-5.3
    5/19 COL0 ($2.7K)-7.10 ($3.8K)-5.3
    5/18 COL6 ($2.9K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    5/17 COL0 ($2.8K)-7.10 ($3.7K)-5.3
    5/16 MIL3 ($2.9K)-4.12 ($3.9K)-3.3
    5/15 MIL0 ($3.1K)-7.10 ($3.7K)-5.3
    5/14 MIL9 ($3.1K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    5/13 MIL13 ($3K)+5.99 ($3.7K)+3.7
    5/12 @KC13 ($2.7K)+5.910 ($3.6K)+4.7
    5/11 @KC21.4 ($2.6K)+14.317 ($3.7K)+11.7
    5/10 @KC6.5 ($2.6K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    5/8 @STL12.7 ($2.6K)+5.69+3.7
    5/7 @STL22.2 ($2.8K)+15.116 ($3.6K)+10.7
    5/6 @STL0 ($2.8K)-7.10 ($3.6K)-5.3
    5/5 WAS0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    5/4 WAS0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    4/17 NYM3--3--
    4/16 NYM0 ($2.9K)-7.10 ($3.9K)-5.3
    4/15 NYM6.2 ($3.3K)--5 ($3.7K)--
    4/14 @MIA3 ($3.4K)-4.12 ($3.9K)-3.3
    4/13 @MIA6.5 ($3.4K)--5--
    4/12 @MIA13 ($3.3K)+5.99 ($3.9K)+3.7
    4/10 WAS6 ($3K)--5 ($3.9K)--
    4/9 WAS3 ($2.9K)-4.13 ($3.8K)--
    4/8 WAS25.2 ($3K)+18.121 ($4.1K)+15.7
    4/7 MIN0 ($3K)-7.10 ($3.8K)-5.3
    4/6 MIN6.5 ($2.7K)--5--
    4/5 MIN9 ($2.6K)--9 ($4.1K)+3.7
    4/3 @WAS12.4 ($2.2K)+5.39+3.7
    4/2 @WAS24.4 ($2.2K)+17.319 ($3.5K)+13.7
    3/31 ATL0 ($2.4K)-7.10-5.3
    3/30 ATL9.2 ($2.4K)--6--
    3/28 ATL6.5 ($2.5K)--5--