Does Valaika's Latest FanDuel Projection Justify His $2K Salary?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Patrick Valaika is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 2.9 FD pts (#43 among third basemen). He is the #48 highest priced third baseman ($2000). Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Valaika is worth $1K. There are 2 other options at $2000 (Brad Miller, Robel Garcia) and Valaika is ranked #3 among the 3. Based on salary, he is expected to have 2.2 FPs, a value reached in 34 of 94 games (36%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 43%.

  • 7/6 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: COL 4.2 (#22 Most Today) vs ARI 4.3 (#21 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 2.86 Fantasy Points (#42), 1.4 plate appearances (#42), 0.217 BA (#42), 0.654 OPS (#40), 0.04 HR (#40), 0.14 RBI (#43), 0.16 runs (#42), 0.01 stolen bases (#31),

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Valaika is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 2.2 DK pts (#62 among second basemen). At $3000 he is expected to be the #60 second baseman. Based on 7/6 salaries and projected points per dollar, Valaika is worth $1.2K. There are 6 other options at $3000 (Eduardo Nunez, Starlin Castro, Devon Travis, Harold Castro, Michael Brosseau, Robel Garcia) and Valaika is ranked #6 among the 7. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Daniel Descalso (5.1 FP), Carlos Sanchez (5.5 FP), Jose Peraza (5.4 FP), Joe Wendle (4.1 FP), and Jose Rondon (4.3 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.1 FPs, a value reached in 15 of 94 games (16%). The combined 'cover percentage' for second basemen expected to start is 38%.

Valaika is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Based on start%, Sanchez is expected to produce more fantasy points than Patrick Valaika and the projections validate that assessment. Given he is starting in 0% of leagues there is no market expectation for any real fantasy production in week 16.

He is projected for 2.1 fantasy points in week 16 (#50 2B) in limited action.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
2.11 (#50) 
Avg0.239 (#41) 
 
OPS0.638 (#35) 
 
Home Runs 
0.11 (#46) 
Runs 
0.48 (#49) 
RBI 
0.4 (#50) 
Stolen Bases 
0.03 (#48) 

  • Based on 7/6 start %s the market values Sanchez over Patrick Valaika and the projections agree.
  • Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14
    0.7 FP vs CIN0.7 FP vs CIN0.7 FP vs CIN

    Patrick Valaika last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/5 @ARI0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/30 vs LAD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/29 vs LAD2 FP, 9 FD, 8 DK2-3, 1 R
    6/28 vs LAD8 FP, 25 FD, 19 DK2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R
    6/27 vs LAD2 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-0, 1 R, 1 BB

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    As of 7/6, Patrick Valaika is the #57 ranked second baseman based on ownership percentage (under 1%) and season fantasy rankings. Our projections indicate that Patrick Valaika is underrated by the market. His fantasy second baseman projection rank is #54. Even though he is undervalued, he is not projected for more fantasy points than other second basemen with a better market ranking. He is projected for 56 fantasy points in 23 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #42 highest average. The market values Sanchez over Patrick Valaika and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    56 (#54) 
    Avg 
    0.242 (#50) 
    OPS0.707 (#43) 
     
    Home Runs3 (#44) 
     
    Runs 
    12 (#53) 
    RBI 
    11 (#52) 
    Stolen Bases 
    1 (#46) 
    Strikeouts23 (#6) 
     

    His projected fantasy points is lower than you would like given his relatively strong OPS projection.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 1.9 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 2 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL1.9 FP per Week24
    Week 22.5 (4 games 0.6 per game)
    Week 34 (4 games 1 per game)+2.1
    Week 4-2.5 (4 games -0.6 per game)-4.4
    Week 51 (1 games)
    Week 8-1 (1 games)-2.9
    Week 130 (3 games 0 per game)-1.9
    Week 1411 (5 games 2.2 per game)+9.1
    Week 150 (1 games)-1.9

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 3.4 points and on DraftKings it was 2.6 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 7 and 6.2 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All3.4 ($2.4K)6 G, 12 B2.6 ($3.3K)4 G, 10 B
    7/5 @ARI0 ($2K)-3.40 ($2.9K)-2.6
    6/30 LAD0 ($2.5K)-3.40-2.6
    6/29 LAD9.2 ($2.5K)+5.88 ($3K)+5.4
    6/28 LAD25.2 ($2.5K)+21.819 ($2.7K)+16.4
    6/27 LAD6.2 ($2.5K)+2.84 ($2.7K)+1.4
    6/24 @SF0 ($2.3K)-3.40 ($2.7K)-2.6
    6/23 @LAD0 ($2.2K)-3.40-2.6
    6/20 @ARI3 ($2K)--2 ($2.7K)--
    6/19 @ARI0 ($2K)-3.40 ($3.1K)-2.6
    5/14 @BOS0--0--
    4/22 WAS3 ($2.5K)--2 ($3.6K)--
    4/21 PHI0 ($2.5K)-3.40 ($3.6K)-2.6
    4/20 PHI0 ($2.7K)-3.40 ($3.1K)-2.6
    4/19 PHI0 ($2.8K)-3.40 ($3.6K)-2.6
    4/16 @SD0 ($2K)-3.40 ($3.5K)-2.6
    4/14 @SF3 ($2.1K)--2--
    4/11 @SF0 ($2.1K)-3.40 ($3.2K)-2.6
    4/9 ATL3 ($2.5K)--2 ($3.9K)--
    4/8 ATL9.2 ($2.5K)+5.87 ($4.1K)+4.4
    4/7 LAD6.2 ($2.5K)+2.85+2.4
    4/6 LAD0 ($2.5K)-3.40 ($3.8K)-2.6
    4/5 LAD6.2 ($2.5K)+2.84+1.4
    4/2 @TB0 ($2K)-3.40 ($3.7K)-2.6