Thomas Fantasy Week 16 Projection vs Expectation

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Based on start%, Culberson is expected to produce more fantasy points than Lane Thomas and the projections validate that assessment. Lane Thomas should put up more fantasy points than Lagares who is ranked 1 spot below him based on start%. He is starting in no leagues and with a projected outfielder rank of #122 in week 16 it makes sense.

He is projected for 2.3 fantasy points in week 16 (#122 OF) in limited action.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
2.28 (#122) 
Avg0.257 (#70) 
 
OPS0.658 (#83) 
 
Home Runs 
0.12 (#114) 
Runs 
0.44 (#125) 
RBI 
0.41 (#123) 
Stolen Bases0.08 (#84) 
 

  • Based on 7/6 start percentages, Lane Thomas is valued behind Culberson and above Lagares and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14
    0.7 FP vs ARI0.8 FP vs ARI0.8 FP vs ARI

    Lane Thomas last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/4 @SEA0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/30 @SD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    5/26 vs ATL0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-0
    5/22 vs KC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-0
    4/24 vs MIL3 FP, 15 FD, 11 DK2-3, 1 SB, 1 BB

    Thomas is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among outfielders is #125. Based on ownership percentage (1%), Lane Thomas has a market rank of #123 among outfielders. The market is higher on Lane Thomas than the projections are so we consider him to be slightly overvalued. He is projected for 64 fantasy points in 23 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #69 highest average. The market ranks Lane Thomas behind Locastro and above Ervin but the projections rank these players in reverse order.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    64 (#125) 
    Avg0.268 (#61) 
     
    OPS0.771 (#79) 
     
    Home Runs3 (#115) 
     
    Runs 
    12 (#126) 
    RBI 
    12 (#123) 
    Stolen Bases2 (#81) 
     
    Strikeouts22 (#12) 
     

    He does not score as many fantasy points and has fewer RBI than you might expect given his OPS projection.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 4 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 2.9 FPs in 2 of them. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL2.9 FP per Week22
    Week 47 (3 games 2.3 per game)+4.1
    Week 55.5 (3 games 1.8 per game)+2.6
    Week 14-0.5 (1 games)-3.4
    Week 15-0.5 (1 games)-3.4

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 5.9 points and on DraftKings it was 4.9 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 1000 and on FanDuel it was 1000 fantasy points. His DraftKings ceiling was -1000 fantasy points and -1000 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All5.9 ($2.1K)3 G, 5 B4.9 ($3.7K)2 G, 4 B
    7/4 @SEA0 ($2K)-5.90 ($3.8K)-4.9
    6/30 @SD0 ($2K)-5.90-4.9
    4/24 MIL15 ($2.2K)+9.111 ($3.8K)+6.1
    4/23 MIL0 ($2.2K)-5.90 ($3.8K)-4.9
    4/22 MIL10 ($2.3K)+4.17 ($4K)--
    4/21 NYM0 ($2.2K)-5.90 ($3.4K)-4.9
    4/20 NYM0 ($2K)-5.90 ($3.4K)-4.9
    4/19 NYM22.2 ($2K)+16.316 ($3.7K)+11.1