Pagan Rest of Season Fantasy Value: Expectations vs Projection

REST OF SEASON VALUE

His latest projection based rank among relievers is #47. As of 7/8, Emilio Pagan is the #42 ranked reliever based on ownership percentage (24%). The market is higher on Emilio Pagan than the projections are so we consider him to be overvalued. Diego Castillo has virtually the same market rank (24% Owned) and is projected for more points than Pagan. He is projected for 18 fantasy points in 24 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#54) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Emilio Pagan behind Strop and above Castillo but the projections rank these players in reverse order.

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Lower Own%E. Pagan ROSHigher Own%
A. Swarzak (24 FP)18 FPP. Strop (17 FP)
B. Morrow (25 FP)#42 RelieverH. Strickland (4 FP)
C. Martin (28 FP) 
S. Oberg (9 FP)
S. Armstrong (33 FP) 
J. Leclerc (12 FP)
A. Bradley (20 FP) 
J. Gant (7 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
18 (#46) 
Saves 
 
0 (#89)
Holds 
 
5 (#81)
Strikeouts 
 
31 (#67)
Walks 
 
7 (#159)
ERA2.57 (#22) 
 

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Emilio Pagan could be someone to consider. He is projected to be the #38 reliever in week 16 and he is only starting in 18% of leagues. Week 16 relievers comparisons show instead of Pagan consider these better options at lower start percentages: Shawn Armstrong (2 FP), Michael Lorenzen (3 FP), Noe Ramirez (4 FP), Diego Castillo (6 FP), and Ty Buttrey (2 FP). Starting in 18% of leagues he is expected to produce 1.1 fantasy points (WK 16). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #42 reliever of week 16. He is projected to be better than that (the #38 reliever). His per game projected FP average is 1.1 which is better than his actual per game average (0).

He is projected for 1.4 fantasy points in week 16 (#38 RP) in 3 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
1.36 (#38) 
Saves 
 
0.03 (#72)
Holds0.34 (#25) 
 
Strikeouts2.04 (#7) 
 
Walks 
 
0.44 (#59)

  • Based on 7/8 start percentages, Emilio Pagan is valued behind Strop and above Castillo but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 16.
  • Emilio Pagan last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/7 vs NYY9 FP, 9 FD, 6 DK1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 HA, 0 BBI
    7/5 vs NYY0 FP, 9 FD, 5 DK2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 HA, 0 BBI
    7/4 vs NYY-3 FP, -2 FD, -2 DK0.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 2 HA, 0 BBI
    7/1 vs BAL2 FP, 9 FD, 6 DK1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 HA, 0 BBI
    6/30 vs TEX2 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 HA, 0 BBI, HD

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 5.5 fantasy points per week and had 5 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 2 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL5.5 FP per Week25
    Week 44 (3 games 1.3 per game)
    Week 525.3 (4 games 6.3 per game)+19.8
    Week 61.2 (1 games)-4.4
    Week 72.8 (3 games 0.9 per game)
    Week 82.3 (3 games 0.8 per game)-3.2
    Week 97.3 (2 games 3.7 per game)
    Week 104.2 (2 games 2.1 per game)
    Week 11-1.4 (2 games -0.7 per game)-6.9
    Week 122 (3 games 0.7 per game)-3.5
    Week 138.3 (3 games 2.8 per game)+2.8
    Week 142.3 (3 games 0.8 per game)-3.2
    Week 157.8 (4 games 2 per game)