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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 57-31 the Yankees are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 50 wins. They have won 60% of their road games and were expected to win 54%. At home they have a 69% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 60%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 15-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 10.7 wins. The Yankees perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 62.4% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #5 in the league back on 5/6.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.28 which ranks #2 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #1. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 8 games is +2 which ranks them #3 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 88 Games||5.7 (#2)||0.265 (#4)||0.642 (#2)|
|Road||6.2 (#1)||0.266 (#3)||0.649 (#2)|
|Home||5.3 (#3)||0.264 (#4)||0.634 (#4)|
|Last 8 Games||7.0 (#2)||0.279 (#4)||0.692 (#3)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.4 (#6)||0.248 (#7)||0.602 (#5)|
|Road||5.0 (#12)||0.264 (#11||0.635 (#12)|
|Home||3.8 (#3)||0.234 (#3)||0.569 (#4)|
|Last 8 Games||5.0 (#7)||0.298 (#13)||0.734 (#13)|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Yankees next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road GameJUL 12LIKELY WIN78% TOR--JUL 13LIKELY WIN63% TOR--JUL 14LIKELY WIN66% TOR--JUL 15CLOSE GAME53% TB--JUL 16CLOSE GAME50% TB--JUL 17LIKELY WIN62% TB--JUL 18CLOSE GAME52% TB--JUL 19CLOSE GAME53% COL--JUL 20LIKELY WIN62% COL--JUL 21CLOSE GAME55% COL--
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 16.1%. At #1 in the league, they are ahead of the Astros by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Astros. There is only a 0.28 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Yankees are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Yankees are playing 14 games, traveling 5275 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #26 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The New York Yankees' next game is on July 12. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Yankees are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 15.2% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 19.1% chance before dropping to 5.1% on 6/15. Their current chances are at 15.2%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 17.2%. They have an 85% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #1 in the conference and have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 40% chance of winning the AL (3/2) and a 22.2% chance of winning it all (7/2). In simulations they make the World Series 28% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #7 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #5 Easiest
Yankees' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||AL Champ||MLB Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|DJ LeMahieu||2.9||99% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #6)|
|Gary Sanchez||2.4||100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #1)|
|Edwin Encarnacion||3.1||99% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #11)|
|Gleyber Torres||2.8||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #2)|
|Aaron Judge||3.1||100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #11)|
|Aroldis Chapman||1.7||97% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)|